Win out or get screwed for the Big Red

[Robb Newman]

Yeah, figures that now that Brown has finally clawed its way above .500 in RPI, we have to beat them.  

Seems  like the best results this weekend are for Cornell to win out (duh), and Brown to beat Dartmouth in the consy.  That would give us the better RPI (by facing Harvard) and would almost certainly leave Brown as a TUC.  Those results would solidify our PWCs vs. UNH and UMinn, so we'll have a legit complaint if we end up in Michigan.  Even if we end up losing the final (please no!) it would still be better to lose to Harvard than to Dartmouth.  OTOH, there'd be a very slim chance that if we lost to Dartmouth in the final and Harvard won the consy that there would be 3 ECAC teams in the NCAAs.  Wouldn't that just yank everyone's chain on USCHO???  :-}

[Robb Newman]

Teams lower than #14 in PWR who are still alive in their tournaments:

Dartmouth
Brown
NMU
Denver (as of this posting - still in OT with UND)

I don't think that NMU or Denver will win their tournaments, regardless.  Looking like it will be the top 14 PWR teams + MAAC champ + CHA champ.  Here's hoping that Havard stays top 14 even with one more loss....

[Robb Newman]

Okay, okay - I know it's bad form to post 3 times in a row, but I'm killing time until the UND/DU game is over....

Here are the KRACH probabilities of the 8 possible outcomes of the semis and finals this weekend.  Forget the consy, winners listed and total probability (obviously just freezing KRACH ratings where they are now) of all three of those outcomes in order of liklihood:

Cornell,Harvard,Cornell = .407
Cornell,Dartmouth, Cornell = .256
Cornell,Harvard,Harvard = .158
Brown,Harvard,Harvard = .058
Cornell,Dartmouth,Dartmouth = .055
Brown,Dartmouth,Dartmouth = .026
Brown,Harvard,Brown = .021
Brown,Dartmouth,Brown = .017

(sums to .998 due to roundoff error).  Doing a little summing, probability of each team winning the championship:

Cornell: .663
Harvard: .216
Dartmouth: .081
Brown: .038

Denver just got bonked; let's assume that NMU doesn't win, then the probability of #14 PWR team getting in is basically the probability of Cornell OR Harvard winning the title, which is 0.881.

In other words, SCSU and PC fans should become huge anti-Harvard fans - if Harvard were to lose 2, Harvard would probably drop out of the top 14, leaving room for another bubble team to take their place.  They should also have lukewarm feelings for Dartmouth - cheer for Dartmouth over Harvard, and if that fails, cheer for Dartmouth in the consy, but they obviously don't want Dartmouth winning the title.

WCHA finally finished up, so it's bedtime....

[Al DeFlorio]

USCHO's PWR page now has links to pages where you can set bonus point amounts for "quality wins" and see the impact on "adjusted" RPI.

Interesting thing is that, given current RPI rankings, only three teams have a quality road win:  Cornell, Michigan, and SCSU.  And only two teams have three quality wins:  Cornell (1 road and 2 home) and BU (2 neutral and 1 home).

[jy3]

Rk Team                GP  W- L- T  Win%  Rk     RPI  Rk  PWR
 1 Colorado College    38 28- 5- 5 0.8026  2 | 0.5931  1 | 28
 2 Cornell             31 26- 4- 1 0.8548  1 | 0.5899  2 | 27
 3 New Hampshire       38 25- 7- 6 0.7368  4 | 0.5894  3 | 26
 4 Boston University   40 24-13- 3 0.6375 13 | 0.5854  4 | 25
 5 Maine               38 24- 9- 5 0.6974  7 | 0.5806  6 | 23
   Ferris State        38 29- 8- 1 0.7763  3 | 0.5664  8 | 23
 7 Minnesota           39 22- 8- 9 0.6795  9 | 0.5840  5 | 22
 8 Boston College      37 23-10- 4 0.6757 11 | 0.5795  7 | 21
 9 North Dakota        41 26-10- 5 0.6951  8 | 0.5637  9 | 19
   Michigan            38 26- 9- 3 0.7237  5 | 0.5606 10 | 19
11 MSU-Mankato         38 20- 8-10 0.6579 12 | 0.5596 11 | 18
12 Ohio State          39 24-10- 5 0.6795  9 | 0.5528 13 | 17
13 Harvard             31 21- 8- 2 0.7097  6 | 0.5543 12 | 15
14 Michigan State      38 23-13- 2 0.6316 15 | 0.5462 16 | 14
15 St. Cloud State     37 17-15- 5 0.5270 27 | 0.5524 14 | 13
   Providence          36 19-14- 3 0.5694 20 | 0.5461 17 | 13
17 Dartmouth           32 19-12- 1 0.6094 17 | 0.5248 19 | 12
   Northern Michigan   38 20-16- 2 0.5526 25 | 0.5244 20 | 12
19 Denver              41 21-14- 6 0.5854 18 | 0.5508 15 | 11
20 Massachusetts       37 19-17- 1 0.5270 27 | 0.5313 18 | 10
21 Notre Dame          39 17-16- 6 0.5128 30 | 0.5216 21 |  8
   Minnesota-Duluth    39 20-14- 5 0.5769 19 | 0.5194 22 |  8
23 Merrimack           36 12-18- 6 0.4167 40 | 0.5154 23 |  5
   Yale                32 18-14- 0 0.5625 22 | 0.5145 24 |  5
25 Miami               41 21-17- 3 0.5488 26 | 0.5083 26 |  4
26 Western Michigan    38 15-21- 2 0.4211 39 | 0.5118 25 |  3
27 Mass.-Lowell        36 11-20- 5 0.3750 45 | 0.5057 27 |  2
   Brown               33 16-12- 5 0.5606 23 | 0.5010 29 |  2
29 Alaska-Fairbanks    36 15-14- 7 0.5139 29 | 0.5011 28 |  1 

i am confused about the quality wins:

quality road wins

quality home wins

quality neutral wins

these are all against top 15 pwr teams?

so for cornell - 1 home and 1 road vs hahvahd, 1 away vs. OSU, 2 home vs. BU = 3 home, 2 road wins. why does the current page for that script on uscho say 1 road, 2 home? just curious

[DeltaOne81]

Yes, all top 15, but only non-conference - so only OSU away BU x2 home... thought we'd been over this :-P

[Keith K \'93]

Robb, you forgot to mention two other teams: Minnesota Duluth (T21) and Notre Dame (not currently a TUC).

[ugarte]

Is Wayne State a TUC now?  I know that autoqualifiers used to be, but don't know if that is still the case.

[jy3]

yeah, we had. been going to the games and also i have been without a computer - also dealing with other stuff ;-) plus, i am forgetful **)

[cnunlist]

Can someone post the link to JTWs RPI script pls?

Thanks,

Cabot

[kingpin248]

The "Build Your Own Rankings" is at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2003/rankings.diy.shtml

[DeltaOne81]

[Q]Brown's win over Yale makes them a TUC, if they remain a TUC a 1-1 record at Placid will keep the record vs. TUC point in our favor. So, the comparison with UNH is more solid than it appears. Of course, Brown would probably need to win the consy to stay a TUC, but I don't know fgor sure. Just losing to us might be enough to solidify Brown's RPI above .5000.[/Q]
Playing with JTW's script this morning, it seems even two losses for Brown would push their RPI up over 0.0100, even if those are to us and Dartmouth, doesn't even have to be Hahvahd.

As for us, two wins (no matter who they're against - Brown and Da/Ha) would push up over CC in RPI, giving us the #1 PWR slot in the nation. On the other hand, a win and a loss to Hahvahd loss would push us 0.0001 below UNH (bonus points please?), though if Brown wins the consy we remain 0.0008 above UNH having played them more than Dartmouth (so we'll have reason to route in the consy). If we were to lose to Da in the final, we'd be 0.0020 below UNH in RPI.

One big BUT, since Brown will remain a TUC, a win and a loss to a TUC brings us to 12-4-1, or a 0.7353 record versus TUCs. This still barely edges our UNH's 0.7333, giving us the comparison, regardless of RPI. If you wanna check scenarios with two loses, be my guest, but I ain't going there, and I don't think we'd have a chance then anyway.

Also, root for OSU this weekend to help us out.



Post Edited (03-17-03 15:01)

[arik marks \'91]

Don't forget that UNH's RPI will be changing as things go as well since several of their opponents on the year are still in action.  That includes Cornell, Dartmouth, and Minnesota (not to mention UNH's opponents opponents...)

So, Dartmouth, Minnesota and yes, even our wins will help UNH's RPI.  

Wayyy to many possibilities to analyze there.  Let's just win.

[Al DeFlorio]

Cornell didn't play UHN this year, so our wins aren't gonna help 'em--except tertiarily [word?] as "opponents' opponents."



Post Edited (03-17-03 18:47)

[DeltaOne81]

[Q]Don't forget that UNH's RPI will be changing as things go as well since several of their opponents on the year are still in action. That includes Cornell, Dartmouth, and Minnesota (not to mention UNH's opponents opponents...)

So, Dartmouth, Minnesota and yes, even our wins will help UNH's RPI. [/Q]
True, only that Whelan's scripts do a full calculation, and includes those effects. I noticed that UNH's RPI was changing a bit too as I entered ECAC tourney results, but didn't know why - but Dartmouth would explain it. The only effects I didn't include is possible results in other tournaments, but that would be far too much to enter.

So, if I'm correct is assuming that even two Brown losses would keep them a TUC, then none of the RPI stuff matters as far as as our UNH comparison. And, it wasn't like it was close. Brown's two losses would raise their RPI from the current (which is around 0.5010) to something more like 0.5150 . I can't see secondary effects having nearly that large of a reverse influence.

The only other thing I can think of would be if some team entered as a TUC that UNH had beaten, but I'm pretty sure, excluding MAAC, all the sub 0.500 RPI teams are done and not all that close to the 0.5000 mark, and UNH didn't play any MAAC teams.