Quarterfinal rooting interests

[Larry72]

given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

"Don't tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

[Tcl123]

If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them?  As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)  

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

<10%

Ill take those odds if u want to be book?10-1. Let me know if ur game for it. Ill put 50 on Cornell. I get 500 if we win.

[Trotsky]

given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

"Don't tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

"Oh, no, no, no, Mister Spock, we didn't beat the odds.  We didn't have a chance.  The Organians raided the game."

[Larry72]

given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

"Don't tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

"Oh, no, no, no, Mister Spock, we didn't beat the odds.  We didn't have a chance.  The Organians raided the game."

A mixing multiple universes are we now!  

"For any event, there is an infinite number of possible outcomes. Our choices determine which outcome will follow. But there is a theory in quantum physics that all possibilities that could happen do happen in alternate quantum realities." - Data

My reality chooses an outcome where Cornell can win!

[Give My Regards]

OK, fine.

"Anything that happens, happens."
"Anything that, in happening, causes something else to happen, causes something else to happen."
"Anything that, in happening, causes itself to happen again, happens again."
"It doesn't necessarily do it in chronological order, though."
-- Douglas Adams

(Kind of seemed like it summed up the whole ECACH to me)

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

OK, fine.

"Anything that happens, happens."
"Anything that, in happening, causes something else to happen, causes something else to happen."
"Anything that, in happening, causes itself to happen again, happens again."
"It doesn't necessarily do it in chronological order, though."
-- Douglas Adams

(Kind of seemed like it summed up the whole ECACH to me)

If Zaphod Beeblebrox shows up in a red sweater and skates, then I'll believe.  Until then, enjoy the games.

[Trotsky]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia
Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

[Robb]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia
Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

Oh yeah — "Don't drive on the railroad tracks!"

[jkahn]

Quinnipiac's wining percentage for the season is .779.  Assume this is their expected record against an average opponent.
Cornell's is .500 very conveniently, because it makes my assumptions and math very simple.

If pQ is .779 and pC is .221, then the probability of a Cornell series win is:

.049 (sweep) + .038 (LWW) + .038 (WLW) = .125

12.5% chance of winning the series.

According to the latest KRACH per collegehockeynews, Cornell has an RRWP of 0.5383 while Q is at 0.7758.  Using these figures Q has a 59% chance of winning any given game between the two teams, while Cornell has a 40.96% chance.  Based on that, we have a 36.5% chance of winning the series.

This doesn't give Q any credit for being the home team.  If we bump their chance of winning any given game to 65% from 59% (which I think is on the right order of magnitude for home vs. road) Cornell's series chances drop to 28%.

The above is purely based on the numbers in the ranking system.  Take them with as many grains of salt as you like.

Using KRACH, it's the KRACH rating and not the RRWP that should be used in the calculation.  Quinnipiac is 376.3 and Cornell is 118.2.  So Q's chance of winning each game (per KRACH) is 376.3/(376.3+118.2)=76.1%.  Our chances of winning the series using KRACH then compute to 14.4%.  That being said, it is not impossible.    6 to 1 underdogs can win.  Let's Go Red.

[ursusminor]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Has the Clarkson one always been the first one?

[marty]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

They didn't lose in 56....

Where's  Rich S. when you need(le) him?

[Jim Hyla]

The Starman highlights our series on USCHO.

They did get a good season out of a player I really respect in Greg Miller. Miller is a tremendous playmaker and also has added a scoring threat to his resume. He can make his linemates better and we have seen him have that impact on Bruins draft pick Brian Ferlin. Ferlin, who plays on the right of Miller, is developing into a good NHL prospect.

Joakim Ryan and Nick D'Agostino, a pair of defensemen drafted by San Jose and Pittsburgh, respectively, combined for close to 40 points and give Cornell an offensive one-two punch from the back end. Andy Iles, an Ithaca native who grew up watching the Big Red, gets another shot at getting the hometown team into the national tourney after an accomplished career in front of the Lynah faithful.

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/2013/03/14/commentary-digging-into-one-great-playoff-series-per-league/#ixzz2NcrWSHEq

Does he know something that I don't?

And Nate Owen picks Q in 3. As does Ken Schott.

[Trotsky]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Has the Clarkson one always been the first one?

I didn't remember, so I didn't number them.

I think it's actually this:

First Law: Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Second Law: Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Third Law: Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Zeroth Law: Harvard sucks.

[Trotsky]

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

They didn't lose in 56....

That's because they wussed out of the playoffs.