Quarterfinal rooting interests

[Jordan 04]

If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them?  As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

[Ben]

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

[css228]

If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them?  As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)  

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

<10%

[Jordan 04]

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Ok, that's fair. I was thinking in the same range, circa 20%.  I guess it's a matter of semantics, since I don't consider that "very unlikely."

[RichH]

No, it's a lot more fun to look at what we've done in the last 9, maybe 10, games. We've played pretty well, good enough to have a decent chance. I don't think that gives us a good enough chance to bet my retirement on it...

I believe the phrase we're all circling is "a puncher's chance."

[Trotsky]

Everybody shut the fuck up and be nice to each other.  Now!

Don't make me come up there.

[Weder]

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Ok, that's fair. I was thinking in the same range, circa 20%.  I guess it's a matter of semantics, since I don't consider that "very unlikely."

Massey Ratings. I have no idea how good Massey is with college hockey.

(Also: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst)

[Trotsky]

Quinnipiac's wining percentage for the season is .779.  Assume this is their expected record against an average opponent.
Cornell's is .500 very conveniently, because it makes my assumptions and math very simple.

If pQ is .779 and pC is .221, then the probability of a Cornell series win is:

.049 (sweep) + .038 (LWW) + .038 (WLW) = .125

12.5% chance of winning the series.

[Robb]

I'll take Massey.  At 26% chance for each game, that's a whopping 16.7% chance of taking the series.  

[Trotsky]

I'll take Massey.  At 26% chance for each game, that's a whopping 16.7% chance of taking the series.  

If you only take last weekend, then pC = 1.000 and pQ = .000

[marty]

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"?  What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Ok, that's fair. I was thinking in the same range, circa 20%.  I guess it's a matter of semantics, since I don't consider that "very unlikely."

Massey Ratings. I have no idea how good Massey is with college hockey.

(Also: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst)

I chose to run a best of three simulation. Since ties are allowed in the simulation there are some assumptions that don't fit the reality of this weekend.  Hit the simulation button 50 times.  QPac won 29, Cornell 13 and there were 8 ties.

I don't think the simulation is random.  On at least three occasions Cornell won back to back simulations - they won two three game series in a row.

[KeithK]

Quinnipiac's wining percentage for the season is .779.  Assume this is their expected record against an average opponent.
Cornell's is .500 very conveniently, because it makes my assumptions and math very simple.

If pQ is .779 and pC is .221, then the probability of a Cornell series win is:

.049 (sweep) + .038 (LWW) + .038 (WLW) = .125

12.5% chance of winning the series.

According to the latest KRACH per collegehockeynews, Cornell has an RRWP of 0.5383 while Q is at 0.7758.  Using these figures Q has a 59% chance of winning any given game between the two teams, while Cornell has a 40.96% chance.  Based on that, we have a 36.5% chance of winning the series.

This doesn't give Q any credit for being the home team.  If we bump their chance of winning any given game to 65% from 59% (which I think is on the right order of magnitude for home vs. road) Cornell's series chances drop to 28%.

The above is purely based on the numbers in the ranking system.  Take them with as many grains of salt as you like.

[Larry72]

Been following Cornell hockey since 1966!  Only saw Cornell lose one game at Lynah during my four undergrad years. Was at Lake Placid in 1970. Was at the US-USSR game in Lake Placid 1980.  Was at the CU-Providence 6-5OT game in 1979.  Also have seen all-too-many melt-downs and missed opportunities.  We'll be at Q because Cornell is playing and has a shot!  LGR!!!

[upprdeck]

given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games . if they dont do that then the worst we do is have a shot on sunday. if you use only the current streak of games the last 4 weeks our chances improve a ton.

[Trotsky]

given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%