You Are The Committee

jtwcornell91 · March 16, 2009, 10:34:00 AM

It probably deserves its own thread:

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

gtsully · March 16, 2009, 12:34:06 PM

Assuming I did this correctly (which is a large leap of faith), Cornell still has a chance to make the tourney if disaster strikes and we lose 2 games in Albany. Losing to Princeton and St. Lawrence leaves us at #14 (behind Air Force, who would get an auto bid anyway), as long as all the other favorites win. With a three-way tie for 15th (Ohio St., Minnesota, and Minn.-Duluth), there wouldn't seem to be much wiggle room with non-ECAC results.

Ironically, this could also be the best-case scenario for the ECAC, as it would put all four finalists in the tournament (Yale at 5, SLU at 9t, and Princeton at 11t).

gtsully · March 16, 2009, 12:44:10 PM

Actually, losing to Princeton and Yale would hurt us more, somehow, dropping us into a tie for 14th with Ohio State and Duluth. I have to stop playing with this, it's driving me crazy.

Just win, baby.

KeithK · March 16, 2009, 01:31:02 PM

Like I said on a different thread, we should probably be rooting for all of the top teams in the other conferences to win their games next weekend. If the other conference finals are Denver-NoDak, Michigan-ND and BU-NU things look a lot better for us making it (and secondarily for the other ECAC teams).

One thing is certainL I am rooting for Duluth on Thursday. :-)

jkahn · March 16, 2009, 01:50:31 PM

There are some scenarios where we don't make it going 1-1 this weekend, based on three teams currently below us in PWR winning Hockey East, CCHA and WCHA Championships. Here's one:

Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern defeats Mass.-Lowell.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Northeastern.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Princeton defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Yale.
ECAC Championship game: St. Lawrence defeats Princeton.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Yale.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Alaska.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Notre Dame.
CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Alaska.
WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats North Dakota.

In this scenario, UMD winds up #6 overall. However, if they lose the championship game, they don't even make the NCAA's.

For the most part though, it looks like we're likely to be in at 1-1 and out at 0-2.

Beat Princeton. Let's Go Red.

Scersk '97 · March 16, 2009, 04:53:39 PM

Cornell as a #1 seed, playing Miami (who just tanked in the playoffs) in Bridgeport:

# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Mass.-Lowell defeats Northeastern.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Mass.-Lowell.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Princeton.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Yale.
# ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Consolation game: Princeton defeats Yale.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Mercyhurst.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Bentley.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Alaska.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Alaska defeats Northern Michigan.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats Denver.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Consolation game: Denver and North Dakota tie.

There seems to be no way we flip comparisons with BU, Notre Dame, or Michigan, so you have to go after the WCHA. An upset special there and an upset of Northeastern in HE seems to do the trick.

Oh, and that pesky tie...

This scenario also keeps Minnesota out of the tournament, which is always a plus.

KeithK · March 16, 2009, 05:35:34 PM

There are only 1,769,472 possibilities left. Someone want to run a script to bombard CHN or whelan's site and report min and max for everyone? :-D

(j/k)

adamw · March 16, 2009, 09:05:18 PM

If someone wants to bombard us with the 1.7 million page views that it would take -- please feel free.

Germ · March 16, 2009, 09:25:57 PM

If we go 0-2 for the weekend we don't deserve to make it. And if we're going to go 1-1 for the weekend we better make darn sure the win is on Friday not Saturday. IMO the winner of the Princeton-Cornell game gets in. Both teams are close in the PWR and it's the rubber game for the season. I know "KRACH is King" and there are a million possibilities still out there but winning Friday I think does it.

adamw · March 16, 2009, 11:25:43 PM

Well KRACH has nothing to do with this -- but yes, winning Friday does it. So does winning Saturday.

Josh '99 · March 17, 2009, 09:05:03 AM

[quote Germ]If we go 0-2 for the weekend we don't deserve to make it. [/quote]This logic annoys me. (Don't take that personally, Germ - I see it a ton and it always does, not just you.) If we go 0-2 for the weekend but the PWR still somehow says we deserve an at-large bid, then we deserve to make it. Even if you want to look at it qualitatively rather than quantitatively, that would still be the case because it would probably mean that one or more other teams who had a chance to punch a ticket with a good weekend also went 0-2 (or, in the case of the WCHA 4-5 game participants, potentially 1-2).

Trotsky · March 17, 2009, 09:34:01 AM

[quote Josh '99]If we go 0-2 for the weekend but the PWR still somehow says we deserve an at-large bid, then we deserve to make it.[/quote]

Here, here. This is second only to "let the players decide it on the ice" as a meaningless playoff cliche. 20-8-4 + 0-2-0 = 18-10-4 + 2-0-0.

Deserve is what your record says it is.

CowbellGuy · March 17, 2009, 10:41:40 AM

I understand your points, but I'm also in Germ's camp on this. It's not so much that they don't deserve to be there based on year-long performance, but if a team drops a pair in the tourney, they're probably not playing very good hockey and it's unlikely that they'd be able to reverse that trend against better opponents. I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum, rather than a team that started hot but had the wheels fall off down the stretch.

Beeeej · March 17, 2009, 10:43:22 AM

[quote CowbellGuy]I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum...[/quote]

On the other hand, most seasons that's Harvard, and they haven't taken advantage of the opportunity in their last eleventy-teen appearances.

ugarte · March 17, 2009, 11:23:27 AM

[quote Beeeej][quote CowbellGuy]I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum...[/quote]

On the other hand, most seasons that's Harvard, and they haven't taken advantage of the opportunity in their last eleventy-teen appearances.[/quote]
In other words, sports momentum is a purely backwards-looking phenomenon. You have momentum right up until you don't.