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Discussions about the Cornell men's and women's hockey teams
Re: Bracketology 2023 - 1 year ago
adamw CU77 Better models already exist, eg Massey ratings: His method is proprietary but the results seem reasonable. Where do you see predictive models there? Also Cornell is 20th there - be careful what you wish for. I do see a page on there where you can "sim" a best-of-3 series ... so I simmed one between Cornell and Quinnipiac - and Cornell won 13 out of 15 best-of-3 serby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology 2023 - 1 year ago
CU77 Better models already exist, eg Massey ratings: His method is proprietary but the results seem reasonable. Where do you see predictive models there? Also Cornell is 20th there - be careful what you wish for.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology 2023 - 1 year ago
Been waiting 10 years for someone to work with me on a better model. I ask every year. Every time someone makes the slightest gesture toward that end, they disappear again in a day or two. Meanwhile, just complaints. ... I don't see the same amount of righteous outrage directed at polls. Talk about something truly meaningless. Please by all means - let's write a better model.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology 2023 - 1 year ago
Nate Silver had Ms. Clinton at 70% in 2016. By far the lowest of any prognostication - most of which had her at around 97% - thanks to a logical fallacy that only Silver had right.by adamw - Hockey
Re: 2023 ECAC Permutations - 1 year ago
Trotsky How in the <your profanity here> did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season. Did they find an exploit in the algorithm? Where do you see splitting pairs with those teams? Alaska swept all 4 meetings with Arizona State. And have swept every other lesser opponent. Their splits are against Omaha, Denver and Notre Dby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology 2023 - 1 year ago
That's a 3 seed and wholly dependent on QU being 2 and Cornell being 10. Anything else, and all bets are off. Long way to go.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Union @ Cornell - 1 year ago
BMac If you can figure out the right way to do this with a window function, good on you. I spent a little time thinking about it and figured it was easier to just build progressive CTEs manually for each goal amount since we don’t need more than 12-15ish…. I’m sure it’s possible though. I’ve even done regressive sql before and felt like a golden god I've done it with Window functions. Just nby adamw - Hockey
Re: Union @ Cornell - 1 year ago
BMac I feel nerdsniped. Can I get the schema for the db? I think it’s something like: For each game order the CU goals by time and generate a row_number For each game, compute the shortest period between two goals by self-joining on row_number = row_number + 1 and subtracting the timestamps, then taking the min of the results. Do the same for 2, 3, 4, etc up to the max number of goalsby adamw - Hockey
Re: a look at the standings with 6 to go - 1 year ago
BearLoverYou are correct that these games vs. Colgate are important; Colgate may be the fourth best team in the ECAC (though I’d still rather play them than Clarkson) and we want revenge. And every game is critical now. But I wish we would stop pretending last year’s team was in a similar position to this year’s team. And I wish everyone (not just Trotsky but also CHN, the Daily Sun, etc.) wouldby adamw - Hockey
Re: Union @ Cornell - 1 year ago
upprdeck a database would make this pretty easy to figure out and compute without having to go look for stuff. I know we have something here is listed even if it doesnt work. Even if there was a database of every goal, its time and game -- computing "fastest in xx span" is not easy. I know because I have this data dating back to 2002 for all of college hockey, and the entire NHL, andby adamw - Hockey
Re: Union @ Cornell - 1 year ago
Carnegie Mellon did have a team - for 3 years - just prior to WW II. When it was known as Carnegie Tech. Pitt also had a team - first when it was known as "Western University of Pennsylvania", even before 1900 ... and then two of the same three years CM had a team. Done quite a bit of research on all the Pittsburgh area schools. Things were quite active a few years with them,by adamw - Hockey
Re: Union @ Cornell - 1 year ago
Take a look at Penn State's non-conference schedule -- against which it went 9-0by adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23 - 1 year ago
jtwcornell91 chimpfood I think it’s time for the pairwise to give more than a 20 percent bonus for away games. If you look around the ncaa this year there are some tremendous differences in home vs away record. Just in the ECAC harvard and Q are undefeated at home, we have one loss at home and are below .500 away. Even Yale is hovering around .500 at home. I don't think anyone is computing KASAby adamw - Hockey
Re: Recruits 2023 and beyond - 1 year ago
His father, Damian, also was an assistant coach at Vermont, back in the day. Had him on our podcast a couple years ago.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Tonight on Skate to Survive: Cornell 4 Quinnipiac 0 - 1 year ago
George64 Shane was nominated for the Hobey Baker the day before yesterday. When I tried to vote for him, I saw that last year’s winner was Minnesota State goalie Dryden McKay. Nothing like putting pressure on your kid from the opening bell - but I guess it paid off. . Dryden McKay was literally named after Ken Dryden While Dryden is indeed named after Ken Dryden, it wasn’t Ross’ idea. Dryby adamw - Hockey
Re: Going Pro - 1 year ago
Trotsky I suggest these resources: Elite Prospects College Hockey Inc Hockeydb They each have front ends to excellent databases. It's entirely possible there are APIs to the data itself. They are commercial sites but perhaps they will share if you ask them nicely, or at least run an ad hoc query to count number of alumni by school. None of those have an API to the data. And sinby adamw - Hockey
Re: 2022-23 Predictions - 1 year ago
Cornell up to 18 in Pairwise after a stellar weekendby adamw - Hockey
Re: Harvard @ Cornell, 12/2/2022 - 1 year ago
RichHBut I am going to dispute the claim as a fact. I had a few minutes to click links and quickly found at least one team with more NHL draft picks on their roster than Harvard. It took me 3 tries checking the rosters on College Hockey News. Minnesota has 14. Harvard 13. "Harvard currently has more draft picks than any other program" is a false, un-cited claim that we let float aroundby adamw - Hockey
Re: Harvard @ Cornell, 12/2/2022 - 1 year ago
I'd disagree that Harvard hasn't underachieved. The narrative still holds. The fact that the large amount of draft picks is being touted - with a bigger discrepancy vis-a-vis Cornell than past years - only proves the point. Just because Harvard has more consistently made the NCAAs recently, doesn't mean anything. With all that "talent," it should be making Frozen Fours. Harvard made theby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23 - 1 year ago
blackwidowI questioned whether Schaefer's a good coach on this forum before. I thought it was a fair question because he's gone to the frozen four only once (03) and generally loses in the first round this is demonstrably falseby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2022-23 - 1 year ago
BearLover arugula Completely unrelated but how is Harvard so high in Pairwise. Undefeated but against a terrible schedule. Last season we would win and lose spots in pairwise due to sos. Harvard has a weak schedule-no problem. Change in the system? The PWR is flukish and not really worth looking at this early in the season. There likely haven’t been enough out of conference games for the modeby adamw - Hockey
Re: Hockey team's culture - 1 year ago
his first year, they were bad until January -- then went bonkers -- so ...by adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2021-22 - 2 years ago
Trotsky Per USCHO, Lindenwood to DI for 22-23 after a wild palace intrigue that included the AD either quitting or getting fired.by adamw - Hockey
Re: 2022 Takeaways - 2 years ago
I feel like every year I have to chime in on a topic like this - just to call out the new random pinhead who questions whether Mike Schafer is a "problem" It's so dumb as to be laughable. Are these people random bots that were sent out like a virus about 20 years ago, to just rise to the surface one per each new offseason? I'll assume this is just an 18-year old kid who just needsby adamw - Hockey
Re: Those Who Study History May Be Blessed to Repeat It - 2 years ago
billhoward Trotsky We don't know if Ceglarski could have succeeded without scholarships, but my goodness what a run of great coaching that would have been. Ceglarski coached until 1992. Succeeded at Clarkson by Jerry York, also BC grad, who then took over over from Ceglarski at BC in the 1990s (15-year stop in between at Bowling Green), now 76 (same age as Coach K), 1100+ victories, 5 NCAA titleby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2021-22 - 2 years ago
CU2007 Here’s something. Doesn’t the committee claim to use something similar to Pairwise but not the actual Pairwise? Is it possible if we beat a bunch of bad teams the rest of the way, coupled with others around us losing games here and there, and move up to say 7th or 8th in the polls but say a spot or two outside the Pairwise “cut off” that we get into the tourney? I’m not an expert but I thoby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2021-22 - 2 years ago
Trotsky Is 3x3 just for Covid or is this going to be The New Stupid even afterwards, like the NL DH? Seems like a lot of leagues (not necessarily NC$$) are using the emergency to push through a lot of garbage. Man on second in extras is the only one so far that would actually make me burn down a stadium, but I expect even worse. This was implemented regardless of COVID. Across the board NCAby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponents and Others, 2021-22 - 2 years ago
upprdeck Dafatone Trotsky Let's switch UVM back for Q please. I know they played Q and UMass, but I can't believe that whatever an AIC is has a tough enough schedule to be even with us at 13-9-1. they have a higher SOS.. they have no wins against any of the better teams but a couple ties. Prov/Quin/Mass/BC losses Prov/Quin(2) OT games we have UND win QUin/Clark OT Harv L thenby adamw - Hockey
Re: Q Game Thread - 2 years ago
BearLover adamw BearLoverIt’s a net negative because of the same home/road weighting that affects every other team. Cornell will benefit from the same weighting when it goes on the road against Q (or any other team). Because of home/road weighting, all possible outcomes of a home game average out to a net negative. 0.8 of a win is not a net negative -- at least not in the way I'm using the termby adamw - Hockey
Re: Q Game Thread - 2 years ago
Al DeFlorioGiven that, why bother with overtime at all? And, why do it with a bogus three-on-three format? Worse, if we should think of it as a tie, anywsy, why add a meaningless shoot-out on top of an unresolved overtime? That's all now unnecessary. Why require six numbers to show a team's overall record when three would do? Classic case of over-thinking something when there's an obvious siby adamw - Hockey