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Discussions about the Cornell men's and women's hockey teams
Re: Corona Virus And Playoff Games - 4 years ago
rediceIf I don't get in: Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam? hmmm - maybe BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days. Here's Cuomo today... “What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a verby adamw - Hockey
Re: Corona Virus And Playoff Games - 4 years ago
Jim HylaAdam, B follows A. So don't do A. Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it." So let's start letting it. Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant. My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down. We've seen it alreaby adamw - Hockey
Re: Corona Virus And Playoff Games - 4 years ago
Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blastby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - 4 years ago
Trotsky Whoa. I was expecting an accidental collision. That really, really looks intentional, but I've never seen a guy just lose his mind like that. Loughran is Northern's best player with 40 points, so it's not like he's a goon. Actually - he might not just be a goon - but he is a goon. Also leads them in PIM, and is an all-around knucklehead. He speared a guy Saturday night, and got awaby adamw - Hockey
Re: Corona Virus And Playoff Games - 4 years ago
I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
marty jtwcornell91 SwampyThe question about filling the War Memorial is a good one. But to answer it, we should compare it to Loveland, Allentown, and Albany. In any case, as I argued above, we should be able to host Albany, Buffalo, or Binghamton almost as well as Syracuse. No love for Rochester? Rochester could be a great venue. Is there a chance RIT would host? RIT did that in 2007 - onby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
SwampyAnd yes, Providence did play better that day. They whupped us. The question is how did they do it? There probably are a bunch of answers to this question that are legitimate and deserve a tip of the hat from us, but we'll never know if an hour in cryogenic therapy or a film session on ice, for example, didn't confer an unfair advantage that was unavailable to the other teams. I'm simply argby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
SwampyRead some of the local newspapers from last year, when they wrote about how the Providence College team could use its advanced training facilities to recuperate between games, and how the coaching staff could use the technology and tools at their home disposal to breakdown films and otherwise strategize for the upcoming second-round game. In this day of modern technology and training methodby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - WCHA breakup - 4 years ago
jeff '84“The University of Illinois will reportedly be adding a college hockey team. According to John Buccigross, the Fighting Illini will announce plans for a division one hockey team in the coming days...” Someone has announced this at least once a month for 3 years. One day. someone will look like a genius for being "right"by adamw - Hockey
Re: Polls 2019-20 - 4 years ago
TrotskyMy guess is it comes down to the voter. Adam can tell us if they get any guidance re: what to consider. Last time I had anything to do with voting was 1999. But it's probably not any different in the fact that no guidance is given. You're lucky if the voters bother to look at a boxscore.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
If it wasn't for the fact that I'd be scared of losing, I would LOVE to see Cornell-Penn State in the NCAAs. The contrasting coaching philosophy is off the charts interesting.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Awards 2019-20 - 4 years ago
TrotskyI don't buy Donato up there. That's hype and the Boston Mafia. I'd have put Backman on the first team and Little instead of Kuffner on the second team. Kuffner was a great story but he's only there for team diversity. Chase Polacek would have been a great choice too. I came to say that I voted for Polacek First Team - and it's a shame so many voters skipped him. Recency bias at itsby adamw - Hockey
Re: Zamboni Gig in Toronto has Perks - 4 years ago
ugarte adamw upprdeck I find lots of stats that say the goalie on the ice when the game winning goal is scored which in this game would have been goal scored and thats not the Zamboni driver so why did he get the win? It's not entirely clear what your sentence is supposed to mean ... but Ayres was on the ice when the GWG was scored. So he gets the win. it's because the definition of game winninby adamw - Hockey
Re: Zamboni Gig in Toronto has Perks - 4 years ago
upprdeck I find lots of stats that say the goalie on the ice when the game winning goal is scored which in this game would have been goal scored and thats not the Zamboni driver so why did he get the win? It's not entirely clear what your sentence is supposed to mean ... but Ayres was on the ice when the GWG was scored. So he gets the win.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - WCHA breakup - 4 years ago
CU2007Who do you predict adds D1 hockey in the next 5 years? And do you think the Alaska programs eventually fold? As I say often - it's impossible to really say, because it depends upon some big donor coming along and saying "please take my money" -- that's pretty much it. So you never know. We will have news on this on CHN soon - there may be one ready to make the jump for sure -by adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - WCHA breakup - 4 years ago
We've covered all of this pretty extensively. Zero news in there. Of course, the NYT is catering to an audience that doesn't really follow it. ... If Illinois adds any time soon, I'll be surprised. There may be an announcement of a team or so soon - but it won't be a major one. Arizona State "opted not to join" because they were asking for too many things, and the WCHA basically said fby adamw - Hockey
Re: Union & RPI Weekend News - 4 years ago
upprdeckWhat its mean that a team like Minn Duluth is p 4 PWR but is less than a goal difference. are they over playing the stats with results? the other top 3 are almost sitting on 2+ goal differential. Duluth has been that way its entire run. Always winning close games. They had a streak at one point where they won 11 straight postseason games by 1 goal - or something. There's no doubt thby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - 4 years ago
abmarks are there any D2 or D3 schools out west at all? If so you'd think Alaskan schools by this point would have thought about dropping down. not that far Westby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - 4 years ago
Huntsville basically withdrew so that they could start looking elsewhere. That's pretty much it. Since the league basically won't exist anyway, it's somewhat irrelevant.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - 4 years ago
Trotsky French RageAre they going to want to spend money getting clubs to DI so they can spend more traveling to Alaska and Alabama?Coincidentally, another Indy ACHA school is UAB, which had a D-1 not all that long ago (80s at least, maybe 90s). I have no idea what to do about Alaska other than impose a surcharge on all of D-1 hockey to defray their and their opponents' travel costs. Hockey Sby adamw - Hockey
Re: Opponent News 19-20 - 4 years ago
TrotskyCHN reporting 7 teams are leaving the WCHA to form a new conference. Wonder if Arizona State will make it an even 8? Bowling Green owns the "CCHA" label so they could revive that name. that is no longer news - FYI. We reported that months ago. ASU is not going to happen, far as I know. CCHA name is most likely - to be announced this week.by adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
KGR11 Here's an example of the issue with using KRACH to predict final pairwise: Cornell (KRACH Rating: 526) is playing St Lawrence (KRACH Rating: 11) in a few weeks. My understanding is that the ratings can be used to come up with a pseudo-record between the two teams (Cornell with 526 wins, St Lawrence with 11). The Monte Carlo simulation uses this record to determine how often Cornell winsby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
KenP Adam, I have a suggestion. Cornell has guaranteed itself an ECAC home playoff series, i.e. our worst-case ECAC rank is 8. Can you do something similar for NCAA participation? Specifically: Create a worst-case simulation for each team. Set their games to losses, rerun the Monte Carlo simulation for the rest of the field, and grab the lowest PWR from the modified simulation. Add that aby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
BearLoverOkay, pardon me for my poor verbiage. Practically speaking though, KRACH is meant to be used as a way of ranking/seeding teams, which depends entirely on past performance. It does a terrible job of predicting future outcomes (at least over a sample as small as 25 or so games). It's not that KRACH does a poor job .... EVERYTHING does a poor job predicting the future. KRACH is the best tby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
DafatoneCould things be more complex? Sure. You could use goal differentials or advanced possession/shot metrics to estimate team quality. You could also weight for recency (Cornell's been weaker over the last month or so than the rest of the season, so maybe we're "worse" than our total record). But that's all more complicated and not necessarily more accurate. I do actually want toby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
BearLoverSorry, I don't agree. KRACH is not meant to be predictive. Therefore, a simulation based entirely on KRACH to predict future outcomes is flawed. The simulation is called the "Pairwise Probability Matrix" and assigns a percentage to all possible outcomes. To a casual viewer, like me, there is no note or disclaimer anywhere on the page that suggests the model is NOT predictive. Iby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
Also - to further answer the question which I thought was obvious, but I guess not ... things aren't 100%, because every game is "played" using KRACH as the weighted probability of a team winning that game. So, Team A has 600 KRACH ... Team B has 300 KRACH ... Team A has a 2/3 chance of winning that game. Play out every game for the rest of the season this way ... 20,000 times ... and yby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
RobbThat’s why there would be a range of final PWR ratings for each team - in some of the trials, Cornell will be unlucky and lose a bunch of games to worse teams, and in some trials they won’t. That’s where the histogram comes in - so you can see the range of possibilities and get an estimate of how likely each of those possibilities appears to be (again, assuming that each team really is exactby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
BearLoverI may be using the wrong terminology, but what do you mean you are not accounting for uncertainty? And would you put your money where your mouth is and assert that if this season were to be replicated from this point forward one million times, in 2/3 of those scenarios Cornell would finish with exactly the 3-seed? That Minn St would finish 3/4 of the time with exactly the 2-seed? That Noby adamw - Hockey
Re: Bracketology for 2020 NCAAs - 4 years ago
Robb adamw Well if Jim read my article (I'm sure he was one of the ones rolling his eyes) - he'd know that those brackets are neither "projections" nor "predictions" at all. It bothers the ever loving hell out of me when they're called that.Ok, but to be *really* pedantic, I wouldn’t necessarily call a KRACH-based Monte Carlo simulation a “prediction” either. The future resulby adamw - Hockey