Thoughts on lax tourney bid

[DeltaOne81]

Shoot. That's my first thought.

Harvard (17), Notre Dame (20), and Lehigh (22) are all out of the top 15 for now. And Duke is officially 26.

Leaving our sole win over the top 15 teams to be #9 Army. Would 0-1-0 do it? Very possibly not. 0-0-1? Almost certainly not. Of course, we're #2 in RPI. So would the committee leave a potential top 5 team out because we didn't have enough big wins? You're damn right they would. Let hope we don't have to find out.

And neither Brown nor Hobart could give us a quality win.


Princeton... is... huge. That's my second thought.

Our post-season is very possibly riding on the line on Saturday. Autobid wise obviously. If Princeton wins, they seal it. If we win, we "only" need to beat a
mediocre Brown team the next week. But Penn only beat them by one, so not counting anything there.

At large-wise, Princeton is currently sitting right behind us at #3. Meaning it would probably be a top 5 win. That's at least 1-1-0 or 1-0-1 are more likely to keep us in the post-season.

If they don't win Saturday, they'll need to rely on some RPI-related sympathy from the committee, or at least Harvard having a good run to finish out the season and getting back into the top 15. Or perhaps both.

And don't feel too bad for Princeton. They beat #7 JHU and #12 Penn. 0-1-1 gives them a decent shot to get there anyway. But even if they don't, I can't feel too bad for them and all their national titles :-P.


Final thought: 3 Ivy teams? 4?

Doesn't look impossible. And its riding on Harvard, in multiple ways. They have wins over #12 Denver, #13 Penn, and #15 Stony Brook. 0-0-3 can getcha in, even if they're out of the top 15 themselves.

They also have a game against current #6 Hosftra. As well as Yale & Dartmouth. If they can beat Hofstra, and then beat Yale and Dartmouth like they should, Harvard should be at least 1-0-2.

Not only that, but that should certainly send them into the top 15 again, giving both Princeton and us a boost. Making us something like x-1-1 and Princeton x-1-2 (x = 1 for the winner on Saturday, 0 for the loser).

With a potential Cornell win, 1-1-1, 0-1-2, and 1-0-2 (or 1-0-3), all seem hard to leave out. So pull for Sucks the rest of the way - if you can.


Penn's current only top 15 win is us. They also play Maryland last week of the season. Add that win in and we could be talking about 4 Ivy teams. For some reason I'm not holding my breath on that, but we'll see. Of course, then I'd start getting worried that the committee will toss one out to spread it around, and without the Ivy title, it could be us.

[Liz '05]

Soooo, 0-0-1 is not (win-loss-tie) but (wins over top 5-wins over five through ten-wins over ten through fifteen), right?

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Liz '05]Soooo, 0-0-1 is not (win-loss-tie) but (wins over top 5-wins over five through ten-wins over ten through fifteen), right?[/quote]

Yeah.

Well, 1-5, 6-10, 11-5... as you doubled up 5 and 10 there

[Hillel Hoffmann]

Army is rising fast in the Ratings Percentage Index. Nice. They're knocking on the door of 6-10.

[Al DeFlorio]

Army 1, Navy 0 mid-first period.  Game on CSTV Sunday noon.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Hillel Hoffmann]Army is rising fast in the Ratings Percentage Index. Nice. They're knocking on the door of 6-10.[/quote]

Not only that, but Harvard and ND are both in the 11-15 range currently (14 & 15).

Making us 1-0-3 with a potential for 1-1-2. That should earn us a nice seed, especially if they look at RPI too (which those articles about Duke imply they are).  Of course, with the ways teams have been movign around, 0-1- isn't impossible either.

[Al DeFlorio]

Navy beat Army, 8-5.  Don't yet know impact on Cadets' RPI.  They still have Ohio State to play.

[RichH]

[quote Al DeFlorio]Army 1, Navy 0 mid-first period.  Game on CSTV Sunday noon.[/quote]

Navy 8 Army 5, Final.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Al DeFlorio]Navy beat Army, 8-5.  Don't yet know impact on Cadets' RPI.  They still have Ohio State to play.[/quote]

And we won't find out on laxpower until tomorrow. They generally update overnight.

[Hillel Hoffmann]

[quote DeltaOne81][quote Hillel Hoffmann]Army is rising fast in the Ratings Percentage Index. Nice. They're knocking on the door of 6-10.[/quote]

Not only that, but Harvard and ND are both in the 11-15 range currently (14 & 15).

Making us 1-0-3 with a potential for 1-1-2. That should earn us a nice seed, especially if they look at RPI too (which those articles about Duke imply they are).  Of course, with the ways teams have been movign around, 0-1- isn't impossible either.[/quote]

One must remember last year's lesson: The selection committee seemed to have a formula that took into account wins AND losses against teams in the various RPI tiers. There also is some evidence that the they don't stop at the 11-15 tier -- "record" against the 16-20 tier may be incorporated.

[Al DeFlorio]

DirecTV 629; perhaps others, too.

[Al DeFlorio]

Cornell now at #4.  Princeton passes Maryland to #5.  Army down to #12.  Harvard at #14 and Notre Dame at #15.  

Cornell's two losses to #3 Syracuse and #17 Penn.

[billhoward]

The seeds that matter:

- Make the tournament
- First round home field
- Seeded in the other bracket from Virginia.

It feels as if Cornell has the ability to beat any team on any given day but in the case of the Cavs I'd prefer not to test that theory for as long as possible.

[Chris \'03]

[quote billhoward]The seeds that matter:

- Make the tournament
- First round home field
- Seeded in the other bracket from Virginia.

It feels as if Cornell has the ability to beat any team on any given day but in the case of the Cavs I'd prefer not to test that theory for as long as possible.[/quote]

I don't really care when Cornell matches up with UVa. I do care that they are in the North bracket with regionals at Stony Brook where Cornell can manage more of a fan showing than at Towson. It's likely that the two will be hand in hand (UVa will stay south) but that's where my thinking is anyway. Given the committees propensity for regional matchups, it wouldn't shock me if the road to Philly went through Harvard and Princeton with seeds aligning:
South- UVa/Georgetown & JHU/Maryland
North- Syracuse/Hofstra & Cornell/Princeton

It'd be some run to a title through H, P, Syracuse, and Virginia.

[billhoward]

[quote Chris '03][quote billhoward]The seeds that matter:

- Make the tournament
- First round home field
- Seeded in the other bracket from Virginia.

It feels as if Cornell has the ability to beat any team on any given day but in the case of the Cavs I'd prefer not to test that theory for as long as possible.[/quote]

I don't really care when Cornell matches up with UVa. I do care that they are in the North bracket with regionals at Stony Brook where Cornell can manage more of a fan showing than at Towson. It's likely that the two will be hand in hand (UVa will stay south) but that's where my thinking is anyway. Given the committees propensity for regional matchups, it wouldn't shock me if the road to Philly went through Harvard and Princeton with seeds aligning:
South- UVa/Georgetown & JHU/Maryland
North- Syracuse/Hofstra & Cornell/Princeton

It'd be some run to a title through H, P, Syracuse, and Virginia.[/quote]

For those in Ithaca, it's marginally shorter to Stony Brook than Towson, 280 miles vs. 330. For students already home, no question there are more Cornellians in the Metro NY area than Washington-Baltimore.

Regional matchups are okay by me. We know we're within one goal either way of Syracuse and Princeton. Hofstra's a challenge, but bring it on. Oh, um, Hofstra is in Stony Brook's back yard. That might help their fans turn out. Does anyone know attendance at Hofstra home games?