Thoughts on lax tourney bid

[Al DeFlorio]

Worth looking over for those interested in the criteria, rankings, etc.

http://www.laxpower.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=17028

[billhoward]

To paraphrase the article, it sees Cornell as the solid #3 seed behind Virginia and Hofstra, with a loss at Hobart costing Cornell a top-four seed.

This is more iffy, but it sees Princeton at #8 and thus in line for a quarterfinal game against Virginia, excepting that we've been talking about how the NCAA likes regional matchups. OTOH, Princeton is just about equidistant between the two sites even if it's a North team.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote billhoward]To paraphrase the article, it sees Cornell as the solid #3 seed behind Virginia and Hofstra, with a loss at Hobart costing Cornell a top-four seed.

This is more iffy, but it sees Princeton at #8 and thus in line for a quarterfinal game against Virginia, excepting that we've been talking about how the NCAA likes regional matchups. OTOH, Princeton is just about equidistant between the two sites even if it's a North team.[/quote]
It's possible they'll put Virginia into the Stony Brook bracket.  May depend on whether three (Cornell, Hofstra, Princeton) or four (add Syracuse) "northern" teams are seeded 1-8.  I suspect they'll want to target Hopkins, Georgetown, and Maryland for Towson.  Navy, too, if they gift them with a 1-8 seed.  I think Syracuse is more deserving, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it be Navy instead.

If Syracuse were to sneak in instead of Navy, there'd be four "northern" teams and four "southern."  The NCAA could revert back to the 1971 inaugural and have an "all-north" bracket and an "all-south" bracket, but I think they'll mix up the seedings so that two of the quarterfinal games will be "mixed" (barring first-round upsets, of course).  Lots of grumblings in 1971 by the Ballmer types that the championship would in fact be determined by the "southern" semifinal.  That--plus the 1970 hose job--made 1971 all the sweeter.

Real geographic progress since last year, when only one of the eight seeds (UMass) was a "northern" team.

[Hillel Hoffmann]

I may be wrong, but I suspect that laxpower.com's analysis is flawed because it does not seem to take into account the (tiered) effects of losses, nor does it seem to take into account the fact that the selection committee is likely to incorporate results against teams with end-of-season RPI rankings of lower than 15.

Although it's hard to make informed predictions because we don't know the relative weight that the committee will assign to the various RPI tiers, I'm willing to guess which teams that laxpower.com has overseeded or underseeded.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Johns Hopkins and Princeton seeded significantly higher than laxpower's preliminary analysis suggests.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Maryland seeded significantly lower than forecasted by laxpower's first-blush analysis.

I suspect they may be right about Syracuse's position just outside the fraternity of seeded teams.

Edit: I have this funny feeling that Cornell is headed for a rematch with an Ivy opponent in the first and/or quarterfinal rounds of the tournament.

[billhoward]

The lax broadcast announcers Friday mentioned again and again my pet theory (not that it's exactly original) that the key to success in 2006 is avoiding the Virginia showdown until the final game.

If they stay south, if we stay north, if Hofstra and Cornell are the 2-3 seeds, that's the key to being successful as long as possible. Presuming we get through the first round and quarterfinal games. LGR.

... and let's hope the seeding committee takes note of our defeat of the then #2 team in the nation.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote billhoward]The lax broadcast announcers Friday mentioned again and again my pet theory (not that it's exactly original) that the key to success in 2006 is avoiding the Virginia showdown until the final game.

If they stay south, if we stay north, if Hofstra and Cornell are the 2-3 seeds, that's the key to being successful as long as possible. Presuming we get through the first round and quarterfinal games. LGR.

... and let's hope the seeding committee takes note of our defeat of the then #2 team in the nation.[/quote]
A Penn win over Maryland today would help a lot.  On CSTV at 1pm.  Lacrosse Weekly at 12:30.

[Hillel Hoffmann]

Princeton is dipping its toes into the RPI top five (#5 in Hymie and laxpower RPI, #6 in Wobus RPI).

[DeltaOne81]

Princeton beats Brown 6-5, to split the Ivy title.

And Darmouth 14, Harvard 13 in 3 OTs! Ouch.

Nice to not be worrying about getting the at large. And hopefully Hillel's right that they'll go beyond the top 15.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote DeltaOne81]And hopefully Hillel's right that they'll go beyond the top 15.[/quote]
If not, we could be slotted at #5, #6, or #7, behind some combination of Virginia, Maryland, Hopkins, Syracuse, Hofstra, and Georgetown.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote DeltaOne81]And Darmouth 14, Harvard 13 in 3 OTs! Ouch.
[/quote]
Geez, Harvard outshot Dartmouth 73-36, won 26 of 31 faceoffs, and cleared 18 of 19 vs. 22 of 30 for Dartmouth.  And still managed to lose.

[Jacob '06]

[quote Al DeFlorio][quote DeltaOne81]And Darmouth 14, Harvard 13 in 3 OTs! Ouch.
[/quote]
Geez, Harvard outshot Dartmouth 73-36, won 26 of 31 faceoffs, and cleared 18 of 19 vs. 22 of 30 for Dartmouth.  And still managed to lose.[/quote]

Harvard sucks.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Al DeFlorio][quote DeltaOne81]And hopefully Hillel's right that they'll go beyond the top 15.[/quote]
If not, we could be slotted at #5, #6, or #7, behind some combination of Virginia, Maryland, Hopkins, Syracuse, Hofstra, and Georgetown.[/quote]

Princeton is 7 and Notre dame is 10. But Harvard fell to 17 and Army to 19.

Making us 0-2-0(-2) and 5 in RPI.

That's the problem with the lax season being so short, is that the RPI never really settles down.


Everyone's talking as if Princeton's a shoe in, and based on RPI they may be if that's a strong factor (7), but for quality wins they only beat JHU, Penn, and Harvard, for 1-0-0(-1).

Penn only beat us and UMBC, for 1-0-1. RPI of 15. Probably squarely on the bubbe.

Harvard probably needed to prove something at the end, with wins only over Penn and Denver for 0-0-2. Their weak finish (result wise at least) and a RPI of 17 probably puts them on the outside looking in.


Note that ignored SoS as a factor (except as included in RPI), because I dunno how they'd calculate it, but laxpower shows it based on Power Rankings, which is almost certainly incorrect.