2005-2006 PWR - playoffs edition!

[nyc94]

Robert Morris just beat Air Force 4-3 in the CHA quarterfinals which is interesting only in that they will play Niagara in tomorrow's semifinals.  This is interesting only in that Niagara is still alive to win the CHA autobid and become a TUC.  And as of right now adding two more TUC wins does nothing for us.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?

[nyc94]

[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?[/quote]

Niagara is not in any danger of becoming a top 15 team.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

[quote nyc94][quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?[/quote]

Niagara is not in any danger of becoming a top 15 team.[/quote]

OK thanks.  I didn't know whether the criterion was being a tournament team, or something else.

[jkahn]

[quote nyc94] This is interesting only in that Niagara is still alive to win the CHA autobid and become a TUC.  And as of right now adding two more TUC wins does nothing for us.[/quote]
but it could certainly mean something by March 18.

[Chris \'03]

Big night with crazy results. UMD beat Denver, Mankato beat NoDak, UNO lost, MSU lost, Niagara a TUC (for now), etc.

Among other things, Cornell flipped the Miami comparison.

I haven't thought it all the way through, but it looks like if the season ended today Cornell would be in Miami's bracket in Albany.

Cornell now t5 with the 33/22/11 bonus:

1     Minnesota    31     1     26-6-5     .7703     1     .5858*
2    Wisconsin    30    3    24-9-3            .7083    2    .5794*
3t    Miami            28    2    24-7-4            .7429    3    .5635*
3t    Boston U    28    7    22-9-4            .6857    4    .5591
5t    Michigan State    26    12t    20-11-8    .6154    5    .5567
5t    Cornell    26    6    18-7-4            .6897    8    .5467
7    Colorado Coll    23    12t    23-14-2    .6154    10    .5461
8t    North Dakota    22    14    23-15-1    .6026    6    .5479
8t    Michigan    22    21t    19-13-5    .5811    7    .5469
8t    Nebraska-Omaha    22    19    20-13-6    .5897    12    .5418
8t    Harvard    22    15t    17-11-2    .6000    11    .5461
8t    Maine            22    5    25-10-2    .7027    9    .5465
13t    Boston College    19    8    22-11-3    .6528    13    .5411
13t    New Hampshire    19    11    20-11-7    .6184    14    .5397
13t    Denver     19    21t    20-14-3    .5811    15    .5365
16    Dartmouth    16    15t    17-11-2    .6000    16    .5347
17    Ferris State    15    29    17-14-8    .5385    17    .5318
18    N Michigan    14    18    21-14-2    .5946    20    .5250
19    Alaska-F    12    26    18-14-5    .5541    18    .5305
20t    Holy Cross    11    4    23-9-2            .7059    19    .5266
20t    St. Lawrence    11    20    20-14-2    .5833    21    .5240*
22    MinnesotaState    9    34    17-16-4    .5135    28    .5083
23t    Vermont    8    27    18-14-6    .5526    27    .5084
23t    St. Cloud    8    24    19-14-4    .5676    22    .5204
25t    Colgate    7    15t    18-11-6    .6000    23    .5154
25t    Ohio State    7    37    15-19-5    .4487    24    .5141
27t    Providence    6    31t    17-16-3    .5139    25    .5098
27t    Lake Superior    6    31t    15-14-7    .5139    26    .5087
29    Sacred Heart    4    9    20-11-2    .6364    29    .5078
30    Clarkson    2    31t    17-16-3    .5139    31    .5005
31    Mercyhurst    1    10    20-12-1    .6212    30    .5013
32    Niagara    0    25    18-14-1    .5606    32    .5000

[Josh '99]

I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005.  This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status?  (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)

[DeltaOne81]

Crazy 5 way tie for 8th.

[DeltaOne81]

Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Harvard (11)
4 UNH (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 BC (13)

Problems - 6 Cornell / 11 Harvard, 4 BU / 13 BC

The Cornell issue is easily repaired by sending Harvard to Worcester in replace of Maine. Neither team would mind that flip too much and seems most fair.

BU/BC is tricker. Cant move BU. 13 BC flipping with 14 UNH useless. So next is 13 BC with 15 AHA/CHA. Leaving:

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 BC (13)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNH (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Harvard (11)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Only teams with a right to complain are Wisc (who is deprived of the supposed patsy) and BC - who has to travel to Green Bay and face #2 in the country.

Anything I get wrong?

Conclusion: yes, be #6 or above is pretty key for us staying east.

[TCHL8842]

Well I like the spot we are in now, 2 weekends in Albany wont be that bad

[nyc94]

If someone other than Cornell or Harvard wins the ECAC there are going to be some grumpy Hockey East fans.

[RichH]

[quote DeltaOIne81]

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 BC (13)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNH (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Harvard (11)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Only teams with a right to complain are Wisc (who is deprived of the supposed patsy) and BC - who has to travel to Green Bay and face #2 in the country.

Anything I get wrong? [/quote]

Very similar to what USCHO came up with.  They have Dartmouth in instead of UNH, possibly because BC and UNH play each other next week, guaranteeing 2 losses for one of them.  They put Dartmouth in Worcester and sent the AHA/CHA team you had there to Green Bay.  BC is placed in Albany instead of UNH.

http://www.uscho.com/pdf/general/2006bracket.pdf

Edit: no, they gave the #1 seeds in each tournament the projected "autobid," and that's how Dartmouth got into their projected bracket.

[nyc94]

[quote RichH]
Very similar to what USCHO came up with.  They have Dartmouth in instead of UNH, possibly because BC and UNH play each other next week, guaranteeing 2 losses for one of them.  They put Dartmouth in Worcester and sent the AHA/CHA team you had there to Green Bay.  BC is placed in Albany instead of UNH.
[/quote]

I know you edited your post but I'm just pointing out that next week would be single elimination semifinals and final.  And Hockey East doesn't play a consolation game so those teams can only have one more loss each, max.

[RichH]

[quote nyc94]I know you edited your post but I'm just pointing out that next week would be single elimination semifinals and final.  And Hockey East doesn't play a consolation game so those teams can only have one more loss each, max.[/quote]

Ah, you're right.  I've got 3-game series on the brain for some reason this week.  :-)

[Ken '70]

[quote jmh30]I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005.  This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status?  (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)[/quote]

It is very, very tight and depends on outcomes of other games that effect Clarkson's Op and OpOp %s.  They need Niagara, Umass, SLU, MIami and Bemidji to almost all win tonight and then to have continued success.  It also will help Clarkson stay TUC if Cornell continues to win since Clarkson has 4 instances of Cornell in its Op column.

However, I don't think it matters much. I ran a script where most favorites, or teams that won last night, continue to win.  If Cornell wins its next two but loses the ECAC final, they're still in 6th playing either BU or Miami in the east. If Cornell wins the final they're in Albany (as #4) playing Miami.

Cornell is in pretty good shape if they just win, which they've had trouble doing when needed from a PWR perspective.