2005-2006 PWR - playoffs edition!

nyc94 · March 17, 2006, 07:37:50 PM

[quote jy3]did the bold help?[/quote]

Since you asked, no, not really. It could just be the combination of my screen and the lighting conditions. I just tried turning out the lights and I can see it a little better. :-)

jy3 · March 17, 2006, 10:41:32 PM

going to wait until all games are final for 2nite. right now cornell is tied for 5th with SUCKS. north dakota losing tomorrow will help us flip that comparison. cornell just needs to win and get some help to get a #1 seed. LGR!

Tub(a) · March 17, 2006, 10:55:12 PM

Cross-posted from the other scores thread. I haven't seen how Cornell can get a number one seed yet...

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t Root against North Dakota. They are the only team that can hurt us from my rough calculations. Regardless of who wins this WCHA game or the ECACHL, if North Dakota wins Cornell is heading west on a 3/2/1 bonus.

On a 33/22/11 A Cornell win puts them in Albany as 5, and a loss puts them west.

On any other bonus higher (or lower) than 33/22/11 Cornell appears to be stuck in 7th and headed west regardless of the ECACHL result.

It is still impossible to figure out every permutation, but these are the most likely outcomes as of right now.

abmarks · March 17, 2006, 11:09:56 PM

tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east

I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...

jy3 · March 17, 2006, 11:25:35 PM

[quote abmarks]tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east

I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...[/quote]
i *think* that was ruined by north dakota winning 2nite. i might be wrong...

jy3 · March 17, 2006, 11:46:22 PM

scsu upsets #1 minne.
this could mean bad things for cornell as und-scsu seems unlikely to have another upset but who knows.

nshapiro · March 17, 2006, 11:55:29 PM

Here is a scenario where we can be a #1 seed

Pairwise Comparisons

Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Minnesota (Mn) 29 .5839*
2 Wisconsin (Wi) 28 .5723*
3 Michigan State (MS) 27 .5709
4t Cornell (Cr) 25 .5598
4t Miami (Mm) 25 .5618
6 Boston University (BU) 24 .5598
7t Harvard (Ha) 22 .5570
7t North Dakota (ND) 22 .5538
9t Boston College (BC) 20 .5504
9t Michigan (Mi) 20 .5484
11 Colorado College (CC) 18 .5469
12 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 17 .5358
13 New Hampshire (NH) 16 .5364
14t St. Cloud State (SC) 15 .5327
14t Holy Cross (HC) 15 .5226
14t Maine (Me) 15 .5431

28 Bemidji State (BS) 3 .4936

30 Bentley (By) 0 .4749

Quality-Win Bonus Factors
You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:

.0033 per quality road win
.0022 per quality neutral-ice win
.0011 per quality home win.

User-Specified Results
You have specified the following tournament results:

CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.

Tub(a) · March 17, 2006, 11:57:32 PM

[quote nshapiro]Here is a scenario where we can be a #1 seed

Pairwise Comparisons

Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Minnesota (Mn) 29 .5839*
2 Wisconsin (Wi) 28 .5723*
3 Michigan State (MS) 27 .5709
4t Cornell (Cr) 25 .5598
4t Miami (Mm) 25 .5618
6 Boston University (BU) 24 .5598
7t Harvard (Ha) 22 .5570
7t North Dakota (ND) 22 .5538
9t Boston College (BC) 20 .5504
9t Michigan (Mi) 20 .5484
11 Colorado College (CC) 18 .5469
12 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 17 .5358
13 New Hampshire (NH) 16 .5364
14t St. Cloud State (SC) 15 .5327
14t Holy Cross (HC) 15 .5226
14t Maine (Me) 15 .5431

28 Bemidji State (BS) 3 .4936

30 Bentley (By) 0 .4749

Quality-Win Bonus Factors
You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:

.0033 per quality road win
.0022 per quality neutral-ice win
.0011 per quality home win.

User-Specified Results
You have specified the following tournament results:

CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.[/quote]

I just ran one with BU winning that put us in Worcester.

Go Bentley and SCSU!

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 18, 2006, 12:22:17 AM

[quote abmarks]tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east

I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...[/quote]

From the other thread, with a 33/22/11 the best we can do is 5 (by 0.0001). If it's 3/2/1, we can finish 4. To do that, we need MSU to beat Miami, SCSU to beat UND, BC to beat BU, and Colgate to beat Dartmouth. Don't hold your breath. More likely, we finish 5th or 6th.

If we lose, we drop to 8th in pretty much any combination of games I've found. Since UND is in the same band as us, in all likelihood, that means we go to Green Bay.

Just win.

EDIT: I assumed HC beats Bentley. If Bentley wins, it appears that we can get the 1 seed with a 33/22/11 (as noted above).

nshapiro · March 18, 2006, 12:26:31 AM

Jeff, If ties are broken by RPI then I agree...but if ties are broken by the head-to-head pairwise comparison, as implied by the ordering from USCHO, then we can be a 4 seed - see my previous post just above

Edit - never mind...just saw your edit

jy3 · March 18, 2006, 11:36:21 PM

ok, gonna update the first post with 33/22/11 and 3/2/1

ursusminor · March 25, 2006, 05:07:43 AM

I know that it is meaningless, but that does anyone have the ability to rerun the PWR calculation including Friday's games? I am curious as to the effect of HC's victory and the CCHA implosion on the placings.

nyc94 · March 25, 2006, 10:16:23 AM

[quote ursaminor]I know that it is meaningless, but that does anyone have the ability to rerun the PWR calculation including Friday's games? I am curious as to the effect of HC's victory and the CCHA implosion on the placings.[/quote]

Looks like http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml is still pulling results from CHN so Fridays games are included.

jtwcornell91 · March 25, 2006, 12:35:00 PM

[quote nyc94][quote ursaminor]I know that it is meaningless, but that does anyone have the ability to rerun the PWR calculation including Friday's games? I am curious as to the effect of HC's victory and the CCHA implosion on the placings.[/quote]

Looks like http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml is still pulling results from CHN so Fridays games are included.[/quote]

Oh, really? That shouldn't be happening.

But you can use the DIY script at the address above to add the games by hand.

nyc94 · March 25, 2006, 12:41:38 PM

[quote jtwcornell91]Oh, really? That shouldn't be happening.

But you can use the DIY script at the address above to add the games by hand.[/quote]

I was going to suggest entering the results manually and was checking past results to make sure I got the team abbreviations and formatting correct. Last night's results are there.