2005-2006 PWR

[Ken \'70]

Games of interest:

Miami def. Ferris: time to start realing Ferris back
MI - MSU TIE: only result that helps Cornell
Clarkson def. SLU: keep Clarkson TUC
Union def. Darmoth: drop Big Green from TUC
BU def. BC: keep TUC advantage and comparison
UMD def. Mn St: jeez, can these guys ever win another game?

Also:

Hahvahd def. RPI: keep RPI from TUC
AF def. NO: keeps NO at bay on TUC and RPI
St CL def. UND: we can dream can't we?  The RPI dif. is only(?) .015

I'd expect Cornell to take some hits on these tonight and maybe drop a couple comparisons, MI and BC being the most likely. A bad night and we're back on the bubble.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote Ken '70]Games of interest:

Miami def. Ferris: time to start realing Ferris back
MI - MSU TIE: only result that helps Cornell
Clarkson def. SLU: keep Clarkson TUC
Union def. Darmoth: drop Big Green from TUC
BU def. BC: keep TUC advantage and comparison
UMD def. Mn St: jeez, can these guys ever win another game?

Also:

Hahvahd def. RPI: keep RPI from TUC
AF def. NO: keeps NO at bay on TUC and RPI
St CL def. UND: we can dream can't we?  The RPI dif. is only(?) .015

I'd expect Cornell to take some hits on these tonight and maybe drop a couple comparisons, MI and BC being the most likely. A bad night and we're back on the bubble.[/quote]
Pretty good night so far.  Union and UMD didn't come through, but six out of eight (so far) ain't bad.  Biggest problem is the hit on RPI from playing Brown, but can't do much about that.

[Trotsky]

.003/.002/.001 has us last in a three-way tie for 9th (a.k.a., 11th) with OSU and Harvard.  Interesting pair comparisons:

Even though BC is #3, we're ahead in the comparison 2-1.
Even though Michigan is #7, we're ahead there too, 2-1.
OTOH, we trail #14 NoDak, 2-1 (though NoDak is probably irredeemable in record v. TUC).
The Harvard comparison is a virtual deal heat: 2-2, with Harvard ahead in RPI by only .013.  Harvard still has the Beanpot to either put their TUC out of reach or, if they get destroyed, knock them down and give Cornell the comparison (assuming Cornell can win F N' F and keep the H2H comparison).
OSU has only a .017 lead in RPI.
BU and Cornell are tied 1-1 with BU's point coming on COp.  So, if Harvard does win a 'Pot game with BU, we get the consolation of perhaps overtaking BU.

[Ken \'79]

Last night was another good one for out of town results, we even got the beneficial tie between MI and MSU, but we still dropped three comparisons overall and our RPI dropped .0015.  Such is the nature of the RPI and playing a 3-12-5 team as well as having some games like BC-BU where any winner will cause a comparison loss.  But there's more good news than bad:

- RPI: the combined record of our remaining regular season Ops is .576, there are no more Browns
- Of the 11 comparisons we're losing, all can be flipped by just RPI, and 7 of those are within reach.  Of those 7, the greatest distance is just .0117, and that's BU which can be flipped by COP alone - go Harvard!
- The RPI delta to 3 of the 7 is trivial: NO, OSU and HA.  All could be flipped tonight
- The RPI delta to 2 is bordering on trivial: Ferris and MSU and could be closed within two games
- Even NoDak is now within reach.  Their RPI dropped .0049 just last night with their loss to SCSU.  The delta is just .0106

Though dropping 3 comparisons may seem like evidence to the contrary, last night was a strategic success.

Games of interest tonight:

- MI def. MSU:  Due to last nights tie it's now OK for MI to go ahead and beat MSU
- Miami def. Ferris:  Close the RPI gap
- ND def. OSU: RPI, flip the comparison
- AF def. NO:  RPI, flip the comparison
- Clarkson def. SLU:  SLU comp flipped to us last night. Another Clarkson win helps keep it that way.
- RPI def. Darmoth:  Drop Darmoth from TUC, or a step in that direction
- UMASS def. BU: If HA can't take care of BU in B'pot, this helps bring BU's RPI closer
- SCSU def. NoDak: RPI delta
- Niagara def. Quin:  Helps our RPI and moves NI closer to TUC
- HA def. Union:  Pretty much the nail in the coffin for Union getting back to TUC

[Trotsky]

[quote Ken '79]
- Niagara def. Quin:  Helps our RPI [/quote]
Please help me out.  We had the same record in the same number of games against each team.  Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum?  In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?

[Jacob '06]

nevermind.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Trotsky][quote Ken '79]
- Niagara def. Quin:  Helps our RPI [/quote]
Please help me out.  We had the same record in the same number of games against each team.  Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum?  In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?[/quote]

You are correct.

In fact QU winning would actually help us more, because it would not only push up our Opp's winning percentage, but it would do the same for all ECAC teams, which would then push up our opponent's opponent's winning percentage, giving us a few more RPI points.

But... there's another consideration from a PWR perspective though, which is record against TUC. If Niagra pulls itself up to a TUC, that will give us two more wins in that column. Which could pull us up much more sigifnicant than a few ten-thousandths of a point in RPI.

But (final 'but')... it won't. Of all the comparisons we lose, we win the TUC column anyway in all but 3 of them - Wisconsin, Miami, and Harvard. Harvard is the only one that we can flip by winning the TUC anyway, but we can win that a lot easier by beating them . So, if we keep playing well, all the TUC "luck" in the world seems mostly irrelevant (Dartmouth dropping out, Niagra making it in, etc). Not that it can hurt.

[Ken \'70]

[quote Trotsky][quote Ken '79]
- Niagara def. Quin:  Helps our RPI [/quote]
Please help me out.  We had the same record in the same number of games against each team.  Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum?  In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?[/quote]

It's due to relativeness: Our RPI is only important relative to other teams' RPI, obviously.  When QU loses all teams that played QU lose in the SOS catagory and the same would be true, of course, for Niagara.  While we get a zero-sum effect from a QU-NI game, teams that have not played QU and NI equally, as we have, don't.  MI and HA are examples, and we are in close competition with both.  Both played QU twice, neither played Niagara.  Therefore our RPI relative to both is advantaged by a theoretical zero-sum outcome for us (NI wins and QU loses), as you point out, which is not a zero-sum outcome for them (QU loses, hurting their SOS rating, with no compensating NI games like we have).

I should have said "Helps our relative RPI" to have made it clearer.

[Ken \'70]

DeltaOne81: But (final 'but')... it won't. Of all the comparisons we lose, we win the TUC column anyway in all but 3 of them - Wisconsin, Miami, and Harvard. Harvard is the only one that we can flip by winning the TUC anyway, but we can win that a lot easier by beating them . So, if we keep playing well, all the TUC "luck" in the world seems mostly irrelevant (Dartmouth dropping out, Niagra making it in, etc). Not that it can hurt.

Getting an at-large, or having a high seed or eastern ice, is as much a consideration of holding onto the comparisons you are currently winning as it is winning additional ones.  

Of the 17 comparisons we are currently winning, 9 can be lost by just by a swing in TUC.  The BC comparison, in particular, is hanging in the balance based on TUC.  The others that we could lose just on a TUC swing are MI, PVD, SLU, DU, SCSU, Cogate, UVM and HC.

TUC is very important, and Niagara getting there is insurance against road, or home, losses in any of our remaining 6 TUC games.

[jkahn]

In the strangely sensitive world of PWR, last night's results (Princeton loss to Robert Morris and Mich. win over WMU) dropped us from 10th to 13th with .003/.002/.001 bonuses and from 10th to 17th with .0004/.0025/.0001.  As a KRACH advocate, I note that last night's results dropped us from 11th to 12th.

[Trotsky]

One might may the argument that any team that loses to a team that loses to Robert Morris should automatically be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. :-)

[Lauren '06]

[quote Trotsky]One might may the argument that any team that loses to a team that loses to Robert Morris should automatically be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. :-)[/quote]
Hmmmm...

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State.  I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

[quote Section A Banshee]

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State.  I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.  :-P

[Trotsky]

[quote Jeff Hopkins '82][quote Section A Banshee]

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State.  I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.  :-P[/quote]
Or Paul Erdõs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s_number

[jtwcornell91]

[quote Jeff Hopkins '82][quote Section A Banshee]

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State.  I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.  :-P[/quote]

Of course, the fact that you can do that from any team to any other team is what makes everyone's KRACH finite.