2005-2006 PWR

[KeithK]

I seem to recall that your games are not included in an opponents record when computing OppWin% and OppOppWin%, in order to avoid double counting.  If I am remembering correctly then it really does not matter who you beat.

[Ken \'70]

[quote KeithK]I seem to recall that your games are not included in an opponents record when computing OppWin% and OppOppWin%, in order to avoid double counting.  If I am remembering correctly then it really does not matter who you beat.[/quote]
You are correct, those games are subtracted.

[French Rage]

Dont look now, but MSU is suddenly #9 in the RPI and #4 in the PWR.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote French Rage]Dont look now, but MSU is suddenly #9 in the RPI and #4 in the PWR.[/quote]

Root for MSU against Ferris and LSSU (last couple weekends). If they win those games (or 1-01 against LSSU), and we play decent down the stretch, that should give us two more comparisons.

[Ken \'70]

DeltaOne81: Root for MSU against Ferris and LSSU (last couple weekends). If they win those games (or 1-01 against LSSU), and we play decent down the stretch, that should give us two more comparisons.

If we play well down the stretch we'll probably pick up those comparisons anyway. With the expected RPI bonus (.0033,.0022,.0011) we're winning the Ferris comparison right now.

Cornell is likely, with decent play, to pick up 4 or 5 comparisons.  Just tonight (Sat) for example, as long as there's a winner in the VT-BC game we'll probably pick up one of those.  A Colgate victory over St Law will bring us just a hair short of flipping the SLU comparison, and if we beat Hahvahd at home that will probably flip both Hahvahd and BU.  The only ones that look untouchable are WI, Miami, MN and CC.

MSU has a strong schedule remaining, so it will be hard to catch them on RPI, but it's possible.  I'd go the other way than you: root against MSU for the rest of the season.  And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.

[Will]

[quote Ken '70]And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.[/quote]

More to the point, root for Niagara to win the CHA tournament, thus granting them automatic TUC status regardless of RPI.

[Ken \'70]

[quote Will][quote Ken '70]And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.[/quote]

More to the point, root for Niagara to win the CHA tournament, thus granting them automatic TUC status regardless of RPI.[/quote]

TUC, though, isn't that important for us this year.  Of the 13 comparisons we're losing, every one could be flipped just by winning RPI.  Only 2 comparisons, Harvard and BC, can be flipped just by winning TUC.

However, only 8 of those potential RPI flips are within reason (currently below .5600 to our .5358, with bonus).  The ones where RPI flips are probably unreasonable are WI, Miami, CC, MN and SLU.  But the overall SLU comparison can be flipped by any 2 of 3 of the remaining criteria, all of which are within reach.

Only two comparisons can be flipped by COP alone, that's MN and BU.  For the former it would require MN to split, or worse, their season finale weekend with UMD while we beat Union.  For the latter we need to beat Harvard while BU doesn't beat Harvard in the Beanpot.

Only one comparison can be flipped by H2H alone: Harvard.

It's really seems to be mostly about RPI from here on out.

[Ken \'70]

Let's use this thread to discuss PWR.  A new one started yesterday, but that one seems to have a drunk as its main contributor.

Cornell had almost the perfect day yesterday re: PWR.  They had picked up 4 comparisons as a result of the afternoon games (they were winning both LSSU and Ferris before the evening games started).  But the night games also helped a lot.

Colgate def. SLU - puts the SLU comp. in reach, despite SLU's insurmountable RPI advantage

Alaska Fairbanks def. OSU - flipped the RPI and the comparison to Cornell

Neb. Omaha def. MSU - tightens up the RPI difference a lot.  Downside is MSU's loss hurts Cornell's Op %, but the prospect of winning the MSU comparison is far more important.  That one may be the key to a 6th seed and eastern ice.

Niagara won - not a big deal, but helps Cornell's Op % and may eventually get Niagara to TUC

Yale def. RPI - dropping RPI from TUC and erasing a TUC tie from Cornell's record

BC def. Vermont  - we just needed a winner in this one, didn't matter who. The TUC critria vs. UVM got stronger and the RPI flipped, giving Cornell the comparison

ME def. PVD - not huge, but it keeps a hot PVD at bay

HC def. Darmoth - bringing the Big Green to the brink of TUC oblivion and erasing one of Cornell's two TUC losses.  TUC isn't a factor in Cornell winning any new comparisons, but it is a big factor in holding on to some of the ones we already have.

Of course, Cornell has to keep winning.  Last year after the last weekend series in January Cornell was 15-4-2 and had a .5795 RPI (incl. bonus).  From then through the Clarkson playoff series on March 12 Cornell went 8-0-1 but their RPI only went up to .5835, a .004 gain.  So flipping RPI comparisons are not just about what you do, you need the other teams to come back to you.

One of the best days for the out-of-town scores you'll see, as a Cornell fan.  Even MI lost, making that comparison somewhat stronger.

[jy3]

i had the same thought last night about things going the way of the big red in the out of town score board. pretty sweet.

[Trotsky]

And the upshot of all that is that with a .003/.002/.001, Cornell wins the 7th place tie with Michigan:

28 Wisco
27 Minny
26 Miami
24 BC
22 CC
22 MSU
20 Cornell
20 Michigan

Cornell's record is listed as 12-4-2 on the USCHO PWR site: http://www.uscho.com/polls/?data=pwr1m.  I assume that's because the RIT game is  dropped?

[dadeo]

Oh come on - someone tell me that the RIT game counts.  just cuz they play a couple D3 games doesnt make them not a D1 school. ??
eh

[DeltaOne81]

They're a D1 school. They're just in a probationary period for the first 2 (?) years, in which they are not eligible for the NCAA tournament, and therefore games against them do not count in whether other teams are eligible.

[redGrinch]

Jayson Moy did a chat for USCHO/CSTV today - see http://www.cstv.com/chat/012006aab.html

Of note at the bottom:

Mike Lentz (Lakeville, MN): Just because I'm curious who you think will be in there at the end, who's your picks to be in the Final Four?

Jayson Moy: Love the way Minnesota is playing right now. I love the way Wisconsin has looked all year. I'll take the two of them to start. And then I'll throw in Cornell, who seem to be just starting to gear up, and the fourth team, well, I'll go with Miami because I love their defense, Andy Greene and two goalies you can't go wrong with.

[Chris \'03]

Really interesting weekend coming up in terms of PWR (ranks presume a 3/2/1 bonus).

#1 WI v. #3 MN (2 games)
#2 MI v. #5 FSU (2)
#4 BC v. #17 BU (1)
#7 UM v. #8 MSU (2)
#11 ND v. #24 SCSU (2)
#12 SLU v. #28 CCT (2)
#13 UNO v. #25 UAF (2)
#15 UNH v. #18 PC (1)

Everything could get mixed up this weekend. Three pairs or top ten teams playing series is really amazing. Time for the CCHA teams to start beating each other up.

[jy3]

as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite.
Bonus Weight
The committee adds a bonus to a team's RPI for "good wins." The amount of the bonus is kept secret, but you can add your best guess here and see how it would affect the PWR.

Road     Neutral     Home          
(Switch To: Individual Comparisons Table)
.0003/2/1
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 1 18-4-2 .7917 1 .6086
2 Miami 27 3 17-4-4 .7600 2 .5820
3 Minnesota 26 6 16-6-4 .6923 3 .5792
4 Boston College 24 2 16-4-2 .7727 4 .5652
5t Michigan 21 14t 14-9-1 .6042 7 .5521
5t Ferris State 21 22t 12-8-6 .5769 9 .5479
5t Cornell 21 4 12-4-2 .7222 11 .5389
8 Colorado College 20 10t 17-10-1 .6250 8 .5516
9 Michigan State 19 24 14-10-5 .5690 12 .5379
10 North Dakota 18 10t 17-10-1 .6250 6 .5524
11t St. Lawrence 17 13 13-8-1 .6136 5 .5546
11t Nebraska-Omaha 17 27t 13-11-2 .5385 13 .5365
13 Harvard 16 21 10-7-2 .5789 18 .5333
14 Northern Michigan 15 26 14-11-1 .5577 14 .5351
15 New Hampshire 14 17 13-8-4 .6000 22 .5256
16t Boston University 13 18 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5351
16t Ohio State 13 27t 12-10-4 .5385 17 .5341
18 Providence 11 19t 13-9-1 .5870 10 .5411
19t Vermont 10 7 15-7-2 .6667 16 .5348
19t Denver 10 22t 14-10-2 .5769 19 .5322
21 Lake Superior 9 14t 12-7-5 .6042 20 .5322
22t Maine 8 10t 15-9-0 .6250 21 .5271
22t Bowling Green 8 36 12-14-1 .4630 27 .5103
24 St. Cloud State 7 25 12-9-3 .5625 23 .5222
25 Alaska-Fairbanks 6 32t 10-11-3 .4792 24 .5208
26 Colgate 4 9 13-6-5 .6458 25 .5177
27 Holy Cross 2 5 15-6-1 .7045 26 .5154
28 Clarkson 1 30 11-10-2 .5217 28 .5050
29 Dartmouth 0 37 8-10-1 .4474 29 .5050