Quest for #1 seed

[KenP]

[Q]ben03 Wrote:

 who are the host schools for the regionals this year?[/q]

The only relevant ones are BU in the east and Minnesota in the midwest.

[Al DeFlorio]

Pending SCSU-AA and Robert Morris-AFA results...now back to fifth behind Minny. :-/

[Robb]

I just don't see a #1 seed in the cards.  With a 5-3-1 bonus, our comparison with BC looks like:

Cornell vs Boston College 
 .5890 1 RPI 0 .5874  
8-3-2 .6923 0 TUC 1 .8077 10-2-1 
3-1-0 .7500 1 COp 0 .6667 2-1-0 
0-1-0  0 H2H 1  1-0-0 
  2 TOT 2 

.0016 is a razor-thin margin in RPI.  Gotta figure they'll overcome that - they have a very tough record remaining, with Lowell twice, BU, and Maine twice.  Their SOS is going to go up, while ours is tanking.  Give that to BC, and they win the comparison, 3-1.

On the other hand, because of their tough remaining schedule, they have 12 games remaining vs TUCs (assuming their first-round HEA series is not against a TUC).  We probably have only 3 remaining: SLU plus two games at Albany.  Assume we go 2-1 in those, our final TUC record will be 10-4-2 (.6875).  For BC to drop that low, they'd have to be 16-7-2 (.680) or worse, or at best 6-5-1 in those last 12 TUC games.  That'd be a pretty monumental collapse.  I bet BC keeps the TUC category.

Common opponents remaining could just be BC's games with Maine, or we each have a possible meeting with a COP in the playoffs (Harvard or Yale for us, and Harvard in the 'pot and Maine in the playoffs for them).  There are too many permutations to figure all that out (including # of games in possible best-of series.  We're not too likely to face Yale in the playoffs, so it really comes down to our possible meetings with Harvard and their Maine games (which are at BC).  We'll *probably* do as well as BC in these remaining games (go Maine!), so we'll probably keep this category,  but it just won't be enough, as BC will likely take the RPI, TUC, and H2H categories.

If all that comes to pass, I'm all for tanking a couple of (regular season) games to give Michigan a taste of their own medicine as the #5 overall seed at Mariucci!  Now watch Minny turn it on and we'll go out there as the #6...

[KenP]

Just took another look at our schedule...I didn't realize our next 6 games are against #7,8,9,10,11 and 12 in the ECAC!

[atb9]

[Q]KenP Wrote:

 Just took another look at our schedule...I didn't realize our next 6 games are against #7,8,9,10,11 and 12 in the ECAC!
[/q]

Yeah, that's bad for the bottom of the league because they're not going to be battling against each other for those final playoff spots...but they had their chance earlier in the season to beat up on each other...it's going to be weird seeing our RPI drop, pretty much win or lose, the rest of the way.

Anyone else think the ECAC(HL) is too big?  I'm sure it was discussed before, especially when the HC/Quin debate was raging...but it looks like a 10 team league is working well for HE and WCHA and it would bring the NC games for Ivy League teams up to 10, a much more appropriate number.

[jtwcornell91]

[Q]atb9 Wrote:

 [Q2]KenP Wrote:

 Just took another look at our schedule...I didn't realize our next 6 games are against #7,8,9,10,11 and 12 in the ECAC!
[/Q]
Yeah, that's bad for the bottom of the league because they're not going to be battling against each other for those final playoff spots...but they had their chance earlier in the season to beat up on each other...it's going to be weird seeing our RPI drop, pretty much win or lose, the rest of the way.

Anyone else think the ECAC(HL) is too big?  I'm sure it was discussed before, especially when the HC/Quin debate was raging...but it looks like a 10 team league is working well for HE and WCHA and it would bring the NC games for Ivy League teams up to 10, a much more appropriate number.[/q]

Meh.  An even number of travel partnerships makes the schedule elegant.

BTW, my DIY script gives you the option of dropping all wins that hurt a team's RPI, not just the ones in the playoffs.

[Ken \'70]

Other than MN finishing 3rd, 6th is a lock for eastern ice in the regionals.  My own crystal ball says MN finishes 4th (they lose the DU comparison they're now winning).

BC will finish 1st, baring a meltdown, so 8th of 9th is also a good landing area for the Big Red.

[adamw]

[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote:
BTW, my DIY script gives you the option of dropping all wins that hurt a team's RPI, not just the ones in the playoffs.[/q]

I believe doing this is the equivalent of giving a point for an OT loss.  Teams can go up in RPI by losing to a good team - but can't go down for beating a bad team? It throws things off.

I accept the playoff concept - because of the micro aspect to it.  But really, RPI is meant to be taken as a whole, and not broken down from game to game. ... The fact that RPI can go down when a team wins does point out the flaws in RPI -- but I don't think it should be "corrected" in this fashion.

[jtwcornell91]

[Q]adamw Wrote:

 [Q2]jtwcornell91 Wrote:
BTW, my DIY script gives you the option of dropping all wins that hurt a team's RPI, not just the ones in the playoffs.[/Q]
I believe doing this is the equivalent of giving a point for an OT loss.  Teams can go up in RPI by losing to a good team - but can't go down for beating a bad team? It throws things off.

I accept the playoff concept - because of the micro aspect to it.  But really, RPI is meant to be taken as a whole, and not broken down from game to game. ... The fact that RPI can go down when a team wins does point out the flaws in RPI -- but I don't think it should be "corrected" in this fashion.[/q]

Of course, it should be corrected by replacing it with KRACH. :-}

Dropping those games was a cop-out response to a flaw pointed out into the system.  I reckon dropping all bad wins makes as much sense as dropping only the playoff ones, so I figured I'd add that option.  I haven't considered whether dropping "good" losses would allow things to remain consistent, but that would be another possibility.

[Al DeFlorio]

Just noticed the Mullins Center--site of the Northeast Regional--has 200x95 ice.  Staying east would be good, but perhaps 200x85 Worcester would be better.

[billhoward]

Some people argue Cornell's 2002 many-OT loss to Harvard was because the Olympic sheet at Placid played more to Harvard's strengths.

It would seem a bigger rink also gives the power play unit more room to maneuver, and right now that seems to be Cornell's one solid scoring line.

[Al DeFlorio]

[Q]billhoward Wrote:

 Some people argue Cornell's 2002 many-OT loss to Harvard was because the Olympic sheet at Placid played more to Harvard's strengths.

It would seem a bigger rink also gives the power play unit more room to maneuver, and right now that seems to be Cornell's one solid scoring line. [/q]
All I can say is that when I talked to Mike after the move from the big sheet in Placid to 200x85 Albany was announced, he was very happy about it.

[KenP]

With BC's loss to BU in the Beanpot, we are currently #4 in PWR.:-)

[nyc94]

[Q]KenP Wrote:
With BC's loss to BU in the Beanpot, we are currently #4 in PWR. [/q]

Any reasonable bonus pushes us to a tie for fifth with Michigan.  We have the higher RPI but they win the head to head comparison.

[jy3]

[Q]nyc94 Wrote:

 [Q2]KenP Wrote:
With BC's loss to BU in the Beanpot, we are currently #4 in PWR. [/Q]
Any reasonable bonus pushes us to a tie for fifth with Michigan.  We have the higher RPI but they win the head to head comparison.
[/q]

and the only way to break that comparison is by either picking up TUC wins or beating st. lawrence.
Michigan vs Cornell
 .5744 0 RPI 1 .5867  
12-6-3 .6429 1 TUC 0 .6333 8-4-3
3-1-2 .6667 1 COp 0 .5000 1-1-1
0-0-0  0 H2H 0  0-0-0
  2 TOT 1
how do they figure out the winning percentage. i always thought that a tie counted as a win and a loss so 3-1-2 turns into 5-3 = .625. LOL, i should know this. Cornell can turn that 1-1-1 into a 2-1-1 if they beat SLU(T) in a few weeks and if they play and beat them in the playoffs. Michigan needs to lose, obviously, but they also played mich state so if they beat them in the playoffs then that adds to their COP - if they lose
i should be interesting. also we will take a hit to our rpi over the next 3 weeks