Quest for #1 seed

[jy3]

3-2-1
1. denver
2. cc
3. bc
4. minne
5. umich
6. cornell
7. bu
8. uml
9. uhn
10. wi
11. tosu
12. hahvahd
13. und
14. 'gate

15. dc
16 .nmu

minne over umich and cornell, umich over cornell breaks the tie at 4.
#9 is more complicated
uhn over tosu
wi over uhn
tosu over wi
so then i assume we list them by rpi as i have above
#1's: denver, cc, bc, minne
#2's: umich, cornell, bu, uml
#3's: uhn, wi, tosu, hahvahd
#4's: und, 'gate, aha/ch, cha/aha

grand rapids
1. denver (1)
2. uml (
3. wi (10)
4. cha/aha (sacred heart)(16)

minnesota
1. minne (4)*
2. umich (5)
3. hahvhad (12)
4. 'gate (14)^

amherst
1. bc (3)
2. cornell (6)
3. uhn (9)
4. und (13)^

worcester
1. cc (2)
2. bu(7)*
3. tosu (11)
4. aha/cha (bemidji state)(15)

i figured worcester and amherst are so close that the distance doesnt matter. so putting cc in worcester ensures a 2-7 matchup. anyone have any different fields? ^editverlooked the minne-und matchup so we likely have to swap 13 and 14

OR
if u take that amherst is closer to cc than worcester it makes things messy
#1's: denver, cc, bc, minne
#2's: umich, cornell, bu, uml
#3's: uhn, wi, tosu, hahvahd
#4's: und, 'gate, aha/ch, cha/aha

grand rapids
1. denver (1)
2. uml (
3. wi (10)
4. cha/aha (sacred heart)(16)

minnesota
1. minne (4)
2. umich (5)
3. hahvhad (12)
4. und (13)

amherst
1. cc (2)
2. cornell (6)
3. tosu (11)
4. aha/cha (bemidji state)(15)

worcester
1. bc (3)
2. bu(7)
3. uhn (9)
4. 'gate (14)
-if u take the distance into account but now u have to switch uhn with someone. cant swap with wi so either tosu or hahvahd...i would say tosu. ^also, minne and und can't play first round games...so swap und and colgate
->
grand rapids
1. denver (1)
2. uml (
3. wi (10)
4. cha/aha (sacred heart)(16)

minnesota
1. minne (4)*
2. umich (5)
3. hahvhad (12)
4. 'gate (14)^

amherst
1. cc (2)
2. cornell (6)
3. uhn (9)^
4. aha/cha (bemidji state)(15)

worchester
1. bc (3)
2. bu(7)*
3. tosu (11)^
4. und (13)^

[DeltaOne81]

As I pointed out in the other thread, you have Minn/UND in the first round. Flip UND with 'Gate.

[jy3]

edited thanks

[Steve M]

With another win over a TUC and the stumbling of other teams at the top, this is looking like a real possibility again.  The key, other than Cornell winning, is Brown and SLU.  Together they represent 4 out of Cornell's 9 wins over TUCs and they are both very close to falling below a 0.500 RPI.

[KenP]

We also need to watch Alaska-Anchorage and Western Michigan.  We want UAA to be a TUC --  they have a favorable record against Minnesota.  Similarly, we DON'T want WMU to be a TUC, as that will add TUC wins to Michigan.

I agree with the comment made in the "Other Scores" thread.  Even though I understand the math, it's pretty ridiculous that Cornell's aspirations for a #1 seed hinge upon Western Michigan and Lake Superior State slugging it out to determine if WMU is just above average or just below average.  The "math" would be better served by changing TUC qualification to RPI (KRACH) over 0.5000 (100)  AND a winning record.

[jy3]

1. cc
1. denver
3. minne
4. cornell
4. bc
6. umich
7. wi
8. uhn
8. umassl
10. bu
10. hahvahd
12. dc
12. tosu
14.und
15. 'gate
16. nmu
16. maine

broken ties->
1. cc
2. denver
3. minne
4. cornell
5. bc
6. umich
7. wi
8. uhn
9. umassl
10. bu
11. hahvahd
12. dc
13. tosu
14.und
_________
15. 'gate
16. nmu
17. maine
#1's: cc, du, minne, cornell
#2's: bc, umich, wi, uhn
#3's: umassl, bu, hahvahd, dc
#4's: tosu, und, aha/cha, cha/aha

grand rapids
1 cc(1)
2 uhn (
3 umassl(9)
4 cha/aha (16)
minne
1 minne*(3)
2 umich (6)
3 hahvahd(11)
4 und (14)
amherst
1 du(2)
2 wi(7)
3 dc (12)
4 aha/cha (15)
worcester
1 cornell (4)
2 bc (5)
3 bu*(10)
4 tosu (13)
we have some swapping to do.
uhn cant play umass, minne cant play und, bc cant play bu
bu and minne cannot move. cannot swap uhn and bc. looks like swapping bc(5) with umich (6) and uhn( with wi(7)
or u could swapp umassl(9) with havhahd(11).

swapping tosu(13) and und(14) seems reasonable->

grand rapids
1 cc(1)
2    wi(7)^^
3    umassl(9)
4 cha/aha (16) (Q)
minne
1 minne*(3)
2    bc (5)^^^
3    hahvahd(11)
4 tosu (13)^
amherst
1 du(2)
2    uhn (^^
3    dc (12)
4 aha/cha (15) (bemidji state)
worcester
1 cornell (4)
2    umich (6)^^^
3    bu*(10)
4 und (14)^
that seem reasonable? did i miss anything?

[DeltaOne81]

You know its late in the college hockey season if...

You run through the bracketology process after each night... for both no bonus, 3/2/1 bonus, and 5/3/1 bonus

Yeah, I did it last night, albeit before the UAA game which changed things.

---------

I do have a few comments on your brackets, mainly for attendence reasons.

1) The committee would probably like to keep BC east and Mich in GR. Rather than swapping BC with Mich and UNH with Wisc, swap BC with Wisc and UNH with Mich.

2) Also, I'm not convinced we'd end up in Amherst in this scenario. It may be "closer" to Denver, but they'd likely fly into Logan (Boston) , so the trip to Worcester is a shorter trip. Although it *could* be cheaper to fly into NYC and drive, so I guess I can't say. Its still a toss up even with a Western team in the east.

---------

FYI, with the 3/2/1 bonus at the moment, I get the same top 16.

So we have:
grand rapids
1 cc(1)
2 mich (6)
3 umassl(9)
4 cha/aha (16) (Q)
minne
1 minne (3)
2 unh(
3 hahvahd(11)
4 tosu (13)
amherst
1 du(2)*
2 bc (5)
3 dc (12)
4 aha/cha (15)** (bemidji state)
worcester
1 cornell (4)*
2 wisc(7)
3 bu (10)
4 und (14)**

Could flop *s and **s if you wanted to put DU in Worcester

[jy3]

[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:

 You know its late in the college hockey season if...

You run through the bracketology process after each night... for both no bonus, 3/2/1 bonus, and 5/3/1 bonus

Yeah, I did it last night, albeit before the UAA game which changed things.

---------

I do have a few comments on your brackets, mainly for attendence reasons.

1) The committee would probably like to keep BC east and Mich in GR. Rather than swapping BC with Mich and UNH with Wisc, swap BC with Wisc and UNH with Mich.

2) Also, I'm not convinced we'd end up in Amherst in this scenario. It may be "closer" to Denver, but they'd likely fly into Logan (Boston) , so the trip to Worcester is a shorter trip. Although it *could* be cheaper to fly into NYC and drive, so I guess I can't say. Its still a toss up even with a Western team in the east.

---------

FYI, with the 3/2/1 bonus at the moment, I get the same top 16.

So we have:
grand rapids
1 cc(1)
2 mich (6)
3 umassl(9)
4 cha/aha (16) (Q)
minne
1 minne (3)
2 unh(
3 hahvahd(11)
4 tosu (13)
amherst
1 du(2)*
2 bc (5)
3 dc (12)
4 aha/cha (15)** (bemidji state)
worcester
1 cornell (4)*
2 wisc(7)
3 bu (10)
4 und (14)**

Could flop *s and **s if you wanted to put DU in Worcester[/q]

that seems like a good solution in order to keep umich and bc for attendance reasons. didnt get into that

[jtwcornell91]

Wow.  I just checked what would happen if all harmful wins were dropped from the RPI, not just those in the playoffs.  Look what happens:

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2005/cgi-bin/rankings.cgi?dispPWR=true;dispRPI=true;PCTweight=25;OPPweight=50;OOPweight=25;topqual=15;homebon=.0010;neutbon=.0020;roadbon=.0030;rpifudge=all;PWCtb=RPI;PWCtbwt=1;PWCh2hwt=1;PWCh2h=per%20game;PWCtucwt=1;TUCdefcrit=rpi;TUCdefrel=ge;TUCdefcut=.500;PWCtuccrit=pct;PWCtucomit=true;PWClastwt=0;PWClastnum=16;PWClastcrit=pct;PWCcomwt=1;PWCcommingm=1;PWCcommintm=1;PWCcomcrit=pct;scoresel=current;scores=

Now obviously, we don't deserve to be #1 (this flaw cancels other flaws in the PWR), but it's telling that if a bunch of games that we won hadn't counted, we'd be a lot better off.

Also, here's how we'd look with the old selection criteria (35/50/15 RPI, TUCs chosen by winning percentage, last 16 is a criterion):

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2005/cgi-bin/rankings.cgi?dispPWR=true;dispRPI=true;PCTweight=35;OPPweight=50;OOPweight=15;topqual=15;homebon=0;neutbon=0;roadbon=0;rpifudge=no;PWCtb=RPI;PWCtbwt=1;PWCh2hwt=1;PWCh2h=per%20game;PWCtucwt=1;TUCdefcrit=pct;TUCdefrel=ge;TUCdefcut=.500;PWCtuccrit=pct;PWCtucomit=true;PWClastwt=1;PWClastnum=16;PWClastcrit=pct;PWCcomwt=1;PWCcommingm=1;PWCcommintm=1;PWCcomcrit=pct;scoresel=current;scores=

We'd still be #7 with the KRACHified version of the old criteria, though:

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2005/cgi-bin/rankings.cgi?dispPWR=true;PWCdetails=true;PCTweight=35;OPPweight=50;OOPweight=15;topqual=15;homebon=0;neutbon=0;roadbon=0;rpifudge=no;PWCtb=RRWP;PWCtbwt=1;PWCh2hwt=1;PWCh2h=per%20game;PWCtucwt=1;TUCdefcrit=pct;TUCdefrel=ge;TUCdefcut=.500;PWCtuccrit=hhwp;PWCtucomit=true;PWClastwt=1;PWClastnum=16;PWClastcrit=hhwp;PWCcomwt=1;PWCcommingm=1;PWCcommintm=1;PWCcomcrit=hhwp;scoresel=current;scores=

(we win last 16 but lose TUC and RRWP to the top six)

[Steve M]

I know the conventional wisdom is that it's a huge uphill climb for Cornell to get a #1 seed, but I think our chances are pretty good if we win an ECAC championship.  Our RPI will go up so we'll have a good shot at passing BC and or Denver.  Minnesota can still fall if MTU or their likely playoff foe, UAA, does some more damage to them.  The chances of CC, Denver, Minn, and BC all playing very well over the next 3 weeks is small, especially since some of them will butt heads.  As the WCHA and HEA play more games against each other, their good NC will not carry as much weight and their RPIs will trend closer to 0.500.  

So I'll go out on a limb and say an ECAC championship will also bring in a #1 seed, providing either Brown or SLU remain a TUC.  

[LarryW]

I think Steve M has the right idea.  There's a lot of losses out there between now and the end of season.  If we avoid them, we'll get a #1 seed, since the WCHA tourney will have plenty of losses to hand out.  Plus, CC&DU play each other twice this week.  Heck, that by itself could make M. Tech a TUC, too, although I think they've fallen a bit too far from RPI = 0.5000 at this point.

[jtwcornell91]

Okay, so I ran it through the DIY script http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?rankings.diy  and if Minnesota loses to MTU tonight, we pass them and move to #4 in the PWR.  If Minnesota splits, we're still #4, but Minnesota drops to #6 because the extra game against Tech drops their RPI enough for Michigan to pass them.   ::laugh::

ETA: unfortunately, a sweep doesn't drag them down enough by itself, so we need Tech to pick up at least two points.

[DeltaOne81]

I just noticed, Minn's main danger is two-fold. One, their TUC record is close enough to our that depending on how things fall, we could pass them. Two, their RPI is low enough to allow BU to win the head to head comparison with them, as well as Michigan, but BU is awfully close. Of course, neither of them are so close. UNH is hanging in there as well.

As much as it might be against our blood, rooting for BU and UNH and Mich could help Minn lose those comparisons, and for CC and against BC to keep BC down and more likely to cause the 3 way tie. Rooting against BC this weekend is easy cause they play Maine, and we want Maine to stay up there. And of course against Minn.

With all the potential, I'm tempted to take that roote to hope that any *one* of the following can happens: BC, UNH, *OR* Mich passes Minn's RPI, even after bonuses *or* we pass BC's RPI.

On second though, rooting against BC may be tricky, because if they drop much in RPI and TUC, then Minn could pass them, which would just screw everything up.

Lastly, if we care about Harvard and Dartmouth's potential for an at large bid, we don't want to be rooting for BU and UNH. But eh, if Harvard can win to next weekend, and Dartmouth can make it to Albany with only, say, one more loss, they should both be fine.

[Robb]

And don't root TOO hard for Michigan, either - their RPI is only .0099 behind ours (with 5-3-1), so we're within striking distance for them, too.

[billhoward]

[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote: ... . One, their TUC record is close enough to our that depending on how things fall, we could pass them. Two, their RPI is low enough to allow BU to win the head to head comparison with them, as well as Michigan, but BU is awfully close. Of course, neither of them are so close. UNH is hanging in there as well. ... As much as it might be against our blood, routing for BU and UNH and Mich could help Minn lose those comparisons, and for CC and against BC to keep BC down and more likely to cause the 3 way tie. Routing against BC this weekend is easy cause they play Maine, and we want Maine to stay up there. And of course against Minn. ... hope that any *one* of the following can happens: BC, UNH, *OR* Mich passes Minn's RPI, even after bonuses *or* we pass BC's RPI. On second though, rooting against BC may be tricky, because if they drop much in RPI and TUC, then Minn could pass them, which would just screw everything up. Lastly, if we care about Harvard and Dartmouth's potential for an at large bid, we don't want to be rooting for BU and UNH. But eh, if Harvard can win to next weekend, and Dartmouth can make it to Albany with only, say, one more loss, they should both be fine.[/q]Anyone else thinking: Dan Quayle has stopped trolling eLynah for cocktail party conversation starters?

This is more complex than Father's Day in Hollywood.