What's it take to get an at large bid?

[Red Man]

The boys are 13-4-2 with decent out of conference results and appear poised to win 7 to their last 10 to finish 20-7-2 and a national ranking in the 7-10 neighborhood.  Assuming they make it to Albany...is this good enough to secure an at large bid? Or do they have to win the ECAC tournament to make the big show.  What do you guys think?

[KeithK]

If the season ended today it would be good enough.  See USCHO PWR: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php and PWR Explained: http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=pwrexplanation

[Will]

Don't pay attention to the polls.  The polls mean nothing.  Pay attention to the PWR (pairwise ranking).  There are sixteen teams in the tournament and six conference autobids.  Since potentially there could be six upset winners, only the top ten teams in the PWR at the end of all the conference tournaments are pretty much assured an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  Right now, we're sitting pretty at #6, but that's likely to change.  Just hope that we don't fally out of the top ten.  Also hope that somehow we end up at one of the eastern regionals. :-D

[Steve M]

Since the ECAC has a pretty good NC record this year, winning 7 of 10 and going to Albany would most likely get Cornell an at large bid.  The only way I could see it being insufficient is if Brown's RPI drops below 0.500 and all of our losses come against TUCs.

Of course winning the ECAC tournament would be sweet.

[Greg Berge]

And the better they do in the RS and ECACs, the better their NCAA seeding and the better their chances to advance.

[KeithK]

For the sake of the conference we should hope for a really tight battle down the stretch with Cornell, Colgate, Harvard and maybe Vermont all vying for the top spot until the final weekend.  The usual parity in the conference, while very entertaining, tends to hurt in terms of tournament bids.  A little separation between the top teams and the rest would help maintain PWR rankings for the contenders.

Note to Hockey Gods: I know this is could be construed as an invitation to have Cornell lose every remaining game to teams in the lower half of the standings.  Please do not take it as such.

[billhoward]

This week's Bracketology on uscho.com has Cornell in the band of four No. 2 seeds and playing UMass Lowell in the first round. That sounds like a beatable team. (hah). Next week, who knows. It would be incredible feat to be one of the four No. 1 seeds.

[calgARI '07]

With three ECACHL teams seemingly destined for the NCAA's, the consolation game in Albany could potentially have extraordinary meaning.

[Dart~Ben]

[Q]KeithK Wrote:
A little separation between the top teams and the rest would help maintain PWR rankings for the contenders.[/q]

From the for what it's worth file (which probably isn't all that much), I think you could see some seperation this weekend.

While highly unlikely, this is the first weekend in a while where I'd even consider 6 sweeps a distinct possibility. You've got the 3 strong pairings vs. the 3 weaker pairings, and in 2 of those 3 the stronger pairings are hosting. When the 3 biggest tossups of the weekend, on paper anyway, are Colgate-SLU, Princeton-Harvard, and Union-Dartmouth, it's not exactly an early preview of Albany.

That said, this is the ECAC(HL) and I'm sure there are some surprises to be had this weekend.

BTW, just out of curiousity, anyone know when the last time there was a weekend where every team either swept or got swept?)

[KenP]

It'll be virtually impossible to get a #1 seed.  Winning it out would certainly help, but even then we'll need help.  Of the 5 teams ahead of us in PWR,

To win the Michigan comparison, we need to sweep SLU(t), have Michigan get 0 or 1 pts against MSU next weekend, and overcome a 0.040 RPI deficit.

To win the DU comparison, we need to overcome a 0.0104 RPI deficit.

To win the BC comparison, we need to overcome a 0.0149 RPI deficit.

We can't win the Minnesota comparison or the ColCol comparison.

A 2nd, 3rd or 4th bracket seeding is much more likely this year.

[RichH]

[Q]KenP Wrote:

A 2nd, 3rd or 4th bracket seeding is much more likely this year.
[/q]
Which beats the pants off our seeding from last year.
;-)

[RichH]

[Q]billhoward Wrote:

 This week's Bracketology on uscho.com has Cornell in the band of four No. 2 seeds and playing UMass Lowell in the first round. That sounds like a beatable team. (hah). [/q]
UML is 6-0-1 vs. the ECACHL.  5-5-2 in HEA (all 5 wins coming this month).  First, how does UML schedule more than half of our league?  Were they angling for a UVM for UML swap?  :-)  It's just strange to have results like that in a good year for the ECACHL.

[Steve M]

If we do win out, our RPI would probably improve by more than 0.01 or even by more than 0.015, and we would have a good shot at a #1 seed.   The odds of winning out are slim, though, so I agree we're much more likely to be a #2, 3 or 4 seed.

[DeltaOne81]

To answer the original question indirectly, and less specifically :-)

If we finish the season 10 or higher in PWR, its guaranteed. If we finish 11 or 12, its still very likely (would need 4 or 3 of the Big 4 conferences to be won by teams not in the top 11/12 to be knocked out. 13th, fairly likely (only one Big 4 conference tourney upset allowed to be in), 14, 50/50 shot because all Big 4 conferences would need to be won by a team in the top 14, and 15th or below just isn't going to happen.

7 of 10 and making it to Albany? We'd be in good shape. 8 or 9 of 10 and we'd be in very good shape.

[calgARI '07]

I don't see why they can't run the table and win them all, although Colgate will obviously be really tough to sweep.