Castagna and Walsh - The Worry Zone

[BearLover]

Yes, good for him. I am a fan of the Cornell hockey team, though.

[Al DeFlorio]

Yes, good for him. I am a fan of the Cornell hockey team, though.

We all are here.  Stop your posturing

[adamw]

Not really sure what it would take to convince BL that the player movement, and departure, is so accelerated nowadays, that any comparison to even 5-10 years ago is meaningless - but - for the sake of everyone else ...

Today, Western Michigan lost two undrafted players and their fourth-round goaltender - all to early signings. Two of those were sophomores. This is so commonplace now, it's a yawn. I really don't have time to do deep dive on actual numbers right now - because it's not easy to do from a simple database search.

You know another way I know this? I used to write a little news blurb for every player that departed early, probably up until as recently as 4-5 years ago. Now, there are so many, and they happen so fast, I don't even bother.

I get that it's commonplace, and I understand that it's becoming more commonplace. But the fact it's happening on a wide basis doesn't itself explain why e.g. Hoyt Stanley would make that decision--his individual calculus isn't any different than it would have been 5-10 years ago when we'd retain that type of player. These are highly personal decisions. Jackson LaCombe (high second round pick, now an NHL star) stayed at Minnesota all four years, after all.

I'm looking at it like this, basically: the last four years our season was ended by BU and Denver. How are we going to beat these teams and get to the Frozen Four? Well, we certainly can't out-recruit them. But we can out-retain them and beat them with experience. But if Cornell players are leaving early just like theirs--well, then we really have no chance at all.

Don't disagree with any of that. I share the same concern/lament. I just disagree with comparing it to 25 or even 5 years ago, or implying that it's a trend, let alone one that's caused by the new coaching staff.  Not trying to be Casey's apologist for any of this.  I tell coaches this all the time - I don't defend you because I like you, I defend because I believe it.

So - I've laid out reasons why things are different today vs. a couple years ago - and while most of that can be dismissed as speculation, if you want, I think it's well-founded.

Obviously transferring is WAY easier now than before, right? So any comparison before two years ago is pretty much irrelevant.  Robertson left, and two transfers came in.  Both of these things were unheard of just a couple years ago. That has nothing to do with Cornell doing something wrong. You don't know if 100 players would've transferred out in Schafer's tenure if it were that easy. No way to know. But credit to Casey for being prepared to replace him. Not just with two transfers in, but in being ready to get Veilleux when that opportunity presented itself, and same with Cournoyer. I'd venture to say he's way more pro-active on all of this stuff now than the past staff, partially because you have to be, and partially because you can be.

We can't get inside Stanley's head to know for sure -- but circumstances have changed, even if it's just the "atmosphere" in college sports these days.  Coaches are doing so much more recruiting to cover their rear ends for anyone leaving, that it can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm not saying that's the case here - I'm just giving one point to consider as a difference that explains things beyond "the coach is different." Maybe Ottawa wanted him more than other 4th rounders Cornell has had in the past. Could be a one off.

You're right on Lacombe. There are others. Dylan James this year. Etc... There will always be examples in the micro.  I am just referring to the macro atmosphere. I have no clue why Stanley made that decision. But usually, if an NHL team wants you after junior year, you go. That kind of pressure is very prevalent in college hockey these days. I don't think it's unusual. I don't think it should be a cause for worry beyond the usual worry.  And I think Casey and the staff are extremely prepared to adapt to it.

And Cornell has it a lot better off than Clarkson, St. Lawrence, Union, Colgate and RPI right now.

[marty]

Good grief!  Stanley realized a life-long dream to sign a pro contract.  That's all the calculus he needed.

"Your reach should exceed your grasp, or what's a heaven for."  Enough with the repetitive deep analysis  He's taking a shot at the prize. Good luck to him.

FWIW anyone want to see BLer's calculus credentials? Didn't he "proactively" stop arguing about this a few weeks ago after the horse had already been rendered into glue?

[The Rancor]

I can't wait to read the apoplectic tirades when Cournoyer signs or transfers next season.

[BearLover]

Good grief!  Stanley realized a life-long dream to sign a pro contract.  That's all the calculus he needed.

"Your reach should exceed your grasp, or what's a heaven for."  Enough with the repetitive deep analysis  He's taking a shot at the prize. Good luck to him.

FWIW anyone want to see BLer's calculus credentials? Didn't he "proactively" stop arguing about this a few weeks ago after the horse had already been rendered into glue?

Back by popular demand!

[Pghas]

Not really sure what it would take to convince BL that the player movement, and departure, is so accelerated nowadays, that any comparison to even 5-10 years ago is meaningless - but - for the sake of everyone else ...

Today, Western Michigan lost two undrafted players and their fourth-round goaltender - all to early signings. Two of those were sophomores. This is so commonplace now, it's a yawn. I really don't have time to do deep dive on actual numbers right now - because it's not easy to do from a simple database search.

You know another way I know this? I used to write a little news blurb for every player that departed early, probably up until as recently as 4-5 years ago. Now, there are so many, and they happen so fast, I don't even bother.

I get that it's commonplace, and I understand that it's becoming more commonplace. But the fact it's happening on a wide basis doesn't itself explain why e.g. Hoyt Stanley would make that decision--his individual calculus isn't any different than it would have been 5-10 years ago when we'd retain that type of player. These are highly personal decisions. Jackson LaCombe (high second round pick, now an NHL star) stayed at Minnesota all four years, after all.

I'm looking at it like this, basically: the last four years our season was ended by BU and Denver. How are we going to beat these teams and get to the Frozen Four? Well, we certainly can't out-recruit them. But we can out-retain them and beat them with experience. But if Cornell players are leaving early just like theirs--well, then we really have no chance at all.

I mean that last paragraph is pretty much my point. Totally agree.  That's why I'm asking can we out-recruit them or out-retain them? And how? I don't think it's realistic to expect kids to say no to the NHL.  More on that later.

[stereax]

I can't wait to read the apoplectic tirades when Cournoyer signs or transfers next season.

Goalies are different and need a lot more time to develop. Plus the goalie room in MTL is stacked between Fowler, Dobes, and Montembeault. He almost certainly won't sign after his sophomore year. Transfers, who the hell knows anymore.

That being said, we do have Cirka recruited...

[BearLover]

And Cornell has it a lot better off than Clarkson, St. Lawrence, Union, Colgate and RPI right now.

For sure. But the story of the last 30 years of Cornell Hockey is that we have been very good in conference and tantalizingly close to hanging with the blue bloods, but never getting there. So while I'm thankful we're not in the same boat as these other schools, I'm looking ahead of us more so than behind us. I'm focused on being ~competitive with BU and Denver, which seems possible based on recent history. How does the program get 5% better to bring us to that point? I do believe Casey is open to new ideas, and I know he's trying very hard. Of course, most improvements are going to happen on the margins - get one extra kid to stay his senior year, get one extra transfer, win a couple recruiting battles.

The blue chip CHL talent matriculating at the top schools these days is scary. Unclear yet how Cornell fits in. Cournoyer was a big win, but aside from him we've seemed pretty noncompetitive for kids looking to make an immediate jump to the NCAAs. 

[BearLover]

I can't wait to read the apoplectic tirades when Cournoyer signs or transfers next season.

Goalies are different and need a lot more time to develop. Plus the goalie room in MTL is stacked between Fowler, Dobes, and Montembeault. He almost certainly won't sign after his sophomore year. Transfers, who the hell knows anymore.

That being said, we do have Cirka recruited...

Yes, Cournoyer is extremely unlikely to sign after his sophomore year and there are obviously no indications he'll transfer, so that post was just trolling.

[stereax]

I can't wait to read the apoplectic tirades when Cournoyer signs or transfers next season.

Goalies are different and need a lot more time to develop. Plus the goalie room in MTL is stacked between Fowler, Dobes, and Montembeault. He almost certainly won't sign after his sophomore year. Transfers, who the hell knows anymore.

That being said, we do have Cirka recruited...

Yes, Cournoyer is extremely unlikely to sign after his sophomore year and there are obviously no indications he'll transfer, so that post was just trolling.

I know it was a joke, I was just thinkin about it lol

[BearLover]

Not really sure what it would take to convince BL that the player movement, and departure, is so accelerated nowadays, that any comparison to even 5-10 years ago is meaningless - but - for the sake of everyone else ...

Today, Western Michigan lost two undrafted players and their fourth-round goaltender - all to early signings. Two of those were sophomores. This is so commonplace now, it's a yawn. I really don't have time to do deep dive on actual numbers right now - because it's not easy to do from a simple database search.

You know another way I know this? I used to write a little news blurb for every player that departed early, probably up until as recently as 4-5 years ago. Now, there are so many, and they happen so fast, I don't even bother.

I get that it's commonplace, and I understand that it's becoming more commonplace. But the fact it's happening on a wide basis doesn't itself explain why e.g. Hoyt Stanley would make that decision--his individual calculus isn't any different than it would have been 5-10 years ago when we'd retain that type of player. These are highly personal decisions. Jackson LaCombe (high second round pick, now an NHL star) stayed at Minnesota all four years, after all.

I'm looking at it like this, basically: the last four years our season was ended by BU and Denver. How are we going to beat these teams and get to the Frozen Four? Well, we certainly can't out-recruit them. But we can out-retain them and beat them with experience. But if Cornell players are leaving early just like theirs--well, then we really have no chance at all.

I mean that last paragraph is pretty much my point. Totally agree.  That's why I'm asking can we out-recruit them or out-retain them? And how? I don't think it's realistic to expect kids to say no to the NHL.  More on that later.

We can't out-recruit the blue bloods, or come close, but maybe we can inch a little closer? We've gotten some good talent lately, but the Denvers and BUs are getting even better talent than before so I'm not sure who has improved more on net.

Honestly, the ECAC has to get better as a conference. But that's looking bleak. The Ivies are doing alright at the moment but the other non-Q schools are getting picked apart in the transfer portal and in recruiting. It's not enough that Q is consistently good; the issue is that the bottom 6-8 teams are consistently very bad.

We can out-retain the blue bloods, or at least we have done so in the past. Again, not expecting to keep the Castagnas (likely NHL) four years but it will be key to keep the Stanleys (likely AHL).

[The Rancor]

I can't wait to read the apoplectic tirades when Cournoyer signs or transfers next season.

Goalies are different and need a lot more time to develop. Plus the goalie room in MTL is stacked between Fowler, Dobes, and Montembeault. He almost certainly won't sign after his sophomore year. Transfers, who the hell knows anymore.

That being said, we do have Cirka recruited...

When they're stacked, he's expendable... trade-able. One bag of pucks and a salary dump and he's signing with a team that didn't draft him. LeNeveu went after his Sophomore year, and, honestly, if he puts up numbers again like he did this season, what more is there to prove at the NCAA level? I don't want to say Bon Voyage, but it isn't unrealistic, especially if we make a deep playoff run.

[adamw]

Not really sure what it would take to convince BL that the player movement, and departure, is so accelerated nowadays, that any comparison to even 5-10 years ago is meaningless - but - for the sake of everyone else ...

Today, Western Michigan lost two undrafted players and their fourth-round goaltender - all to early signings. Two of those were sophomores. This is so commonplace now, it's a yawn. I really don't have time to do deep dive on actual numbers right now - because it's not easy to do from a simple database search.

You know another way I know this? I used to write a little news blurb for every player that departed early, probably up until as recently as 4-5 years ago. Now, there are so many, and they happen so fast, I don't even bother.

I get that it's commonplace, and I understand that it's becoming more commonplace. But the fact it's happening on a wide basis doesn't itself explain why e.g. Hoyt Stanley would make that decision--his individual calculus isn't any different than it would have been 5-10 years ago when we'd retain that type of player. These are highly personal decisions. Jackson LaCombe (high second round pick, now an NHL star) stayed at Minnesota all four years, after all.

I'm looking at it like this, basically: the last four years our season was ended by BU and Denver. How are we going to beat these teams and get to the Frozen Four? Well, we certainly can't out-recruit them. But we can out-retain them and beat them with experience. But if Cornell players are leaving early just like theirs--well, then we really have no chance at all.

I mean that last paragraph is pretty much my point. Totally agree.  That's why I'm asking can we out-recruit them or out-retain them? And how? I don't think it's realistic to expect kids to say no to the NHL.  More on that later.

We can't out-recruit the blue bloods, or come close, but maybe we can inch a little closer? We've gotten some good talent lately, but the Denvers and BUs are getting even better talent than before so I'm not sure who has improved more on net.

Honestly, the ECAC has to get better as a conference. But that's looking bleak. The Ivies are doing alright at the moment but the other non-Q schools are getting picked apart in the transfer portal and in recruiting. It's not enough that Q is consistently good; the issue is that the bottom 6-8 teams are consistently very bad.

We can out-retain the blue bloods, or at least we have done so in the past. Again, not expecting to keep the Castagnas (likely NHL) four years but it will be key to keep the Stanleys (likely AHL).

If it makes you feel any better, the ECAC was in pretty bad shape circa 2003 when Cornell last made the FF. I don't know what that means, but just sayin'.

As for getting high-end CHL jumpers to NCAA ... this is one area where Cornell may be a bit hamstrung, unfortunately. See article and previous comments here where the admissions cutoff was discussed. Many CHL players don't want to discuss or commit until after their seasons are over, so as not to offend their CHL teams. But those seasons end after the Ivy cutoff.

[BearLover]

I can't wait to read the apoplectic tirades when Cournoyer signs or transfers next season.

Goalies are different and need a lot more time to develop. Plus the goalie room in MTL is stacked between Fowler, Dobes, and Montembeault. He almost certainly won't sign after his sophomore year. Transfers, who the hell knows anymore.

That being said, we do have Cirka recruited...

When they're stacked, he's expendable... trade-able. One bag of pucks and a salary dump and he's signing with a team that didn't draft him. LeNeveu went after his Sophomore year, and, honestly, if he puts up numbers again like he did this season, what more is there to prove at the NCAA level? I don't want to say Bon Voyage, but it isn't unrealistic, especially if we make a deep playoff run.

Notably, our prior two starting goalies, Galajda and Shane, had much better freshman year numbers than Cournoyer.