Polls and NPI 2026

[upprdeck]

I played with the BC site, since we dont know how wonky it is.

Cornell gets to the finals
OSU/Clarkson/Umass win

We got a 10seed and PSU was out.

[stereax]

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

It's pretty easy to understand how - most likely because that site isn't calculating things correctly. CHN's is known to be factually accurate because I actually work with the person who literally provides the data to the NCAA. I've had numerous good conversations with the person who runs the BC page, nice guy - I've tried to help him best I could - but I'm not sure he has everything precisely calculated. I don't go there or check his work - I'm just judging by our conversations. So - be careful.

We'll have our You Are the Committee tool out soon.

Woot!

Mostly just trying to figure out what happens if we lose the Princeton game, but can't do that natively on CHN :/

[stereax]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

My head hurts looking at the backend NPI charts. Maybe just because it was last officially updated on March 7?

Or the formulas could be wrong/off, lol.

My concern now is that a win vs Harvard bumps us only .05 up, but a loss tanks us like .7 - and if we lose against Princeton, will we actually be high enough to cushion that blow? Because the BC site is inflating our NPI too, I think...

You're probably right that our NPI is screwed up on the BC site too. However, I'm super confused how beating Harvard would bump us only .05. How much did we gain beating Harvard tonight (Saturday)? Should be similar tomorrow.

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

My head hurts looking at the backend NPI charts. Maybe just because it was last officially updated on March 7?

Or the formulas could be wrong/off, lol.

My concern now is that a win vs Harvard bumps us only .05 up, but a loss tanks us like .7 - and if we lose against Princeton, will we actually be high enough to cushion that blow? Because the BC site is inflating our NPI too, I think...

You're probably right that our NPI is screwed up on the BC site too. However, I'm super confused how beating Harvard would bump us only .05. How much did we gain beating Harvard tonight (Saturday)? Should be similar tomorrow.

We gained a lot beating them yesterday, but plugging into CHN we only bump that .05 with a win today. I think it's because their quality win bonus goes down if/when we kick their asses again.

[BearLover]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

My head hurts looking at the backend NPI charts. Maybe just because it was last officially updated on March 7?

Or the formulas could be wrong/off, lol.

My concern now is that a win vs Harvard bumps us only .05 up, but a loss tanks us like .7 - and if we lose against Princeton, will we actually be high enough to cushion that blow? Because the BC site is inflating our NPI too, I think...

You're probably right that our NPI is screwed up on the BC site too. However, I'm super confused how beating Harvard would bump us only .05. How much did we gain beating Harvard tonight (Saturday)? Should be similar tomorrow.

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

My head hurts looking at the backend NPI charts. Maybe just because it was last officially updated on March 7?

Or the formulas could be wrong/off, lol.

My concern now is that a win vs Harvard bumps us only .05 up, but a loss tanks us like .7 - and if we lose against Princeton, will we actually be high enough to cushion that blow? Because the BC site is inflating our NPI too, I think...

You're probably right that our NPI is screwed up on the BC site too. However, I'm super confused how beating Harvard would bump us only .05. How much did we gain beating Harvard tonight (Saturday)? Should be similar tomorrow.

We gained a lot beating them yesterday, but plugging into CHN we only bump that .05 with a win today. I think it's because their quality win bonus goes down if/when we kick their asses again.

I think that's wrong. QWB should be a minor factor. Which tool are you using, btw? I'm not familiar with anything like that on CHN before the You Are the Committee comes out.

Maybe adamw can clarify since he's here—how much NPI does Cornell gain if they win today, and are they locked if they do?

[ugarte]

would you people stop embedding 12 layers of quotes! it's insane on mobile!

[stereax]

I think that's wrong. QWB should be a minor factor. Which tool are you using, btw? I'm not familiar with anything like that on CHN before the You Are the Committee comes out.

Maybe adamw can clarify since he's here—how much NPI does Cornell gain if they win today, and are they locked if they do?

I usually use the CHN-native NPI customizer. Where you see the NPI stats, there's a thing on the right where you can input future games' results and see the change in NPI.

[stereax]

would you people stop embedding 12 layers of quotes! it's insane on mobile!

HEY I JUST FIXED IT 😭

[Give My Regards]

would you people stop embedding 12 layers of quotes! it's insane on mobile!

Use a computer screen like God intended.  In my day, phones were PHONES, dammit!

[upprdeck]

the thing with the BC tool is that every team is different than what CHN days right now.

You plug in Cornell wins today and it has Augustana 13 where CHN has them 16. many teams are off by .4 and in both directions.

[BearLover]

I think that's wrong. QWB should be a minor factor. Which tool are you using, btw? I'm not familiar with anything like that on CHN before the You Are the Committee comes out.

Maybe adamw can clarify since he's here—how much NPI does Cornell gain if they win today, and are they locked if they do?

I usually use the CHN-native NPI customizer. Where you see the NPI stats, there's a thing on the right where you can input future games' results and see the change in NPI.

Thanks. I had never noticed that before. I think this tool is currently bugged, though. When I plug in Cornell winning today, their NPI goes down...?

[stereax]

I think that's wrong. QWB should be a minor factor. Which tool are you using, btw? I'm not familiar with anything like that on CHN before the You Are the Committee comes out.

Maybe adamw can clarify since he's here—how much NPI does Cornell gain if they win today, and are they locked if they do?

I usually use the CHN-native NPI customizer. Where you see the NPI stats, there's a thing on the right where you can input future games' results and see the change in NPI.

Thanks. I had never noticed that before. I think this tool is currently bugged, though. When I plug in Cornell winning today, their NPI goes down...?

Try it again. Sometimes it goes down to .44, sometimes it goes up to .51. I don't get it either, might be a bug or just cache issues.

[adamw]

Fun fact: playoffstatus.com gives us a < 1% yet non-zero chance of a 1-band.

There is a 1,000% chance that is false.

[adamw]

I think that's wrong. QWB should be a minor factor. Which tool are you using, btw? I'm not familiar with anything like that on CHN before the You Are the Committee comes out.

Maybe adamw can clarify since he's here—how much NPI does Cornell gain if they win today, and are they locked if they do?

I usually use the CHN-native NPI customizer. Where you see the NPI stats, there's a thing on the right where you can input future games' results and see the change in NPI.

Thanks. I had never noticed that before. I think this tool is currently bugged, though. When I plug in Cornell winning today, their NPI goes down...?

Try it again. Sometimes it goes down to .44, sometimes it goes up to .51. I don't get it either, might be a bug or just cache issues.

I'll look into that. It does try to cache your results so that, after you hit submit the first time, when you go back, it's supposed to be in the state you left it so that you can adjust from there, rather than having to start over.  So maybe there's some sort of incorrect compounding going on.  If you spot anything, let me know.

[stereax]

Fun fact: playoffstatus.com gives us a < 1% yet non-zero chance of a 1-band.

There is a 1,000% chance that is false.

Because it was last updated on Wednesday. Lol.

[stereax]

I think that's wrong. QWB should be a minor factor. Which tool are you using, btw? I'm not familiar with anything like that on CHN before the You Are the Committee comes out.

Maybe adamw can clarify since he's here—how much NPI does Cornell gain if they win today, and are they locked if they do?

I usually use the CHN-native NPI customizer. Where you see the NPI stats, there's a thing on the right where you can input future games' results and see the change in NPI.

Thanks. I had never noticed that before. I think this tool is currently bugged, though. When I plug in Cornell winning today, their NPI goes down...?

Try it again. Sometimes it goes down to .44, sometimes it goes up to .51. I don't get it either, might be a bug or just cache issues.

I'll look into that. It does try to cache your results so that, after you hit submit the first time, when you go back, it's supposed to be in the state you left it so that you can adjust from there, rather than having to start over.  So maybe there's some sort of incorrect compounding going on.  If you spot anything, let me know.

I mean, that's the one thing I'm seeing right now. Dunno if it'd happen for other teams/stuff.