Polls and NPI 2026

[stereax]

I hate Pedo State like every other sentient being, but they are a pimple on the butt of my rooting interests.  Ahem.

Looks like as per the matrix they can't fall out anyway

[BearLover]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

[stereax]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

[stereax]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

If we lose in semis to Princeton:
55.23 if Princeton wins Placid.
55.14 if Dartmouth does.
55.16 if Clarkson does.

Wisconsin is at 55.32ish.

There's a field where we win in 3, lose to Princeton in the semis, Princeton (or Clarkson) wins Placid, OSU wins B10, we're out by a hair.

AHA is autobid. NCHC is top 16 bid. Neither of these effectively matter. CCHA is either autobid or there are enough top 16 bids that we're safe anyway (Augustana can still get in if things break their way - there's about an 18% chance). Doesn't matter. HEA is autobid and I can't rig it to get any other team high enough. Doesn't matter anyway.

The only results that matter now are Mich-OSU for the B10 and the ECACs. Everything else is basically trivial.

So, as I have always (literally never) said: it's great to be a Michigan Wolverine!

[BearLover]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

[stereax]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Functionally, it's literally equivalent if we lose tomorrow vs in the semis. In either case, we end up in 12, almost certainly (bc the BC site seems to possibly be wonky so I'm not giving decrees here).

Annoyingly, this is where Q losing actually fucks US over - if Q won, we'd be seeded against Dartmouth, and losing to Dartmouth does not screw us the way losing to Harvard or Princeton does. In which case, we could've made Placid and been in, most likely.

Thanks, Rand. Even when you fucking lose, you screw us.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it? Bc you're right - on the CHN site it shows Wisconsin at 55.05, which would mean all of this calculus is moot as we stay above them no matter what by making it to Placid, unless OSU winning bumps them that much? Nope. Doesn't seem to be that, from simming it on CHN. Plus, most of Wisconsin's opponents (barring Mich and OSU) are out of the tournaments anyway...

[BearLover]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

[stereax]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

[stereax]

Yeah just simmed it on chn and wisco goes down to 54.99 with an osu win and 54.93 with a mich win

[BearLover]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

[stereax]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

My head hurts looking at the backend NPI charts. Maybe just because it was last officially updated on March 7?

Or the formulas could be wrong/off, lol.

My concern now is that a win vs Harvard bumps us only .05 up, but a loss tanks us like .7 - and if we lose against Princeton, will we actually be high enough to cushion that blow? Because the BC site is inflating our NPI too, I think...

[BearLover]

So it's between us and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in question. Two questions I have:
1. Are we locked to finish behind Wisconsin if we lose tomorrow, or do we have outs to finish ahead of them?
2. Are we locked to finish ahead of Wisconsin if we win tomorrow, or could we still finish behind them if we then lose to Princeton in Placid?

0. Not necessarily. If we win tomorrow and do well in Placid, we can become a 2 seed. But 12 is either us or Wisco.

1. If we lose tomorrow, we drop to 54.76. Wisconsin is out of its tournament. The only thing that could happen would be minor NPI adjustments with other results. The gap is .31, though, which is too high imo to be messed with that way.

2. Win tomorrow pulls us up from 55.46 to 55.51. Which is trivial. I can't sim the Princeton-Cornell game directly on CHN, but I tried flipping the Cornell home game to Princeton and that simply dropped us back to 55.46, I think. But I don't trust that. Let me try the BC one.

0. Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about making the tournament. I know we can fall below Wisconsin and still make it (if other results break our way), or end up with a 2-seed (if we win out), but this exercise was meant to see how few games we NEED to win to finish ahead of Wisconsin, which means we're locked.

1. I suspect you're right and we need to win tomorrow, but...

2. I'm realizing there's something wrong with the BC page. It lists Wisconsin's NPI as way higher than it actually is (at least way higher than it is on CHN or USCHO). What gives?

We NEED to make the finals in Placid to lock. We can lose the final but we gotta make it to be 100% sure we're top 11.

Not sure. I don't think the BC site has been updated with tonight's games yet. That could be it?

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

I agree with you there - it seems ridiculously unlikely that other results would pull them up that far (a jump of 0.3), especially because, from what I see, the only other result that should affect them is Mich-OSU, and the effects of that change seemed minimal.

I saw they played Minnesota State twice, but even when I punched in Minnesota State losing next round, Wisconsin's NPI was still really high. So I don't know. Maybe there's some nuance I'm missing, but I don't see how Wisconsin's NPI can get that high. Like, I plugged in all of this weekend's results, and then assumed some results for next weekend, but the ones next weekend shouldn't affect Wisconsin much and I don't get how their NPI ends up so high.

My head hurts looking at the backend NPI charts. Maybe just because it was last officially updated on March 7?

Or the formulas could be wrong/off, lol.

My concern now is that a win vs Harvard bumps us only .05 up, but a loss tanks us like .7 - and if we lose against Princeton, will we actually be high enough to cushion that blow? Because the BC site is inflating our NPI too, I think...

You're probably right that our NPI is screwed up on the BC site too. However, I'm super confused how beating Harvard would bump us only .05. How much did we gain beating Harvard tonight (Saturday)? Should be similar tomorrow.

[adamw]

I have a weird feeling Wisconsin's NPI is inflated on the BC site and we actually would be locked with a win tomorrow. I can't confirm this, but I don't understand how they could possibly be 55.053 on USCHO and much higher on the BC site even after it accounts for the fact they lost to OSU last week. I could be wrong, but is it really possible that they could jump from 55.053 to around 55.335 just from other results? That seems implausible, but I'm not sure.

It's pretty easy to understand how - most likely because that site isn't calculating things correctly. CHN's is known to be factually accurate because I actually work with the person who literally provides the data to the NCAA. I've had numerous good conversations with the person who runs the BC page, nice guy - I've tried to help him best I could - but I'm not sure he has everything precisely calculated. I don't go there or check his work - I'm just judging by our conversations. So - be careful.

We'll have our You Are the Committee tool out soon.

[Trotsky]

Fun fact: playoffstatus.com gives us a < 1% yet non-zero chance of a 1-band.

[Pghas]

I think we are in a good spot because the things we need to happen to get into the big dance are all more likely to happen than not.

If Cornell plays like they did last night there is no way Harvard beats us.  They just aren't that good.  If they then advance to lake placid the road to the ecac title becomes Princeton and then probably Dartmouth.  That is considerably easier than Dartmouth and then Q.

I think Michigan will probably take care of Ohio State.

Full faith that the Big Red takes care of business today.