Recruits 2024 and Beyond

Started by scoop85, December 19, 2023, 01:17:57 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Pghas

getting a sense based on what's out there in the metaverse that Gio DeGiulian may be coming next year and not playing juniors at all.  We could probably use the scoring if he's ready.

scoop85

Quote from: Pghasgetting a sense based on what's out there in the metaverse that Gio DeGiulian may be coming next year and not playing juniors at all.  We could probably use the scoring if he's ready.

That would surprise me given that Seger is our only known loss up front and we already have a few forwards scheduled to arrive in the fall.

Pghas

Quote from: scoop85
Quote from: Pghasgetting a sense based on what's out there in the metaverse that Gio DeGiulian may be coming next year and not playing juniors at all.  We could probably use the scoring if he's ready.

That would surprise me given that Seger is our only known loss up front and we already have a few forwards scheduled to arrive in the fall.

you could be right, I had from a very good source he was playing juniors but there's just stuff out there to the contrary.  who is already coming?

scoop85

Quote from: Pghas
Quote from: scoop85
Quote from: Pghasgetting a sense based on what's out there in the metaverse that Gio DeGiulian may be coming next year and not playing juniors at all.  We could probably use the scoring if he's ready.

That would surprise me given that Seger is our only known loss up front and we already have a few forwards scheduled to arrive in the fall.

you could be right, I had from a very good source he was playing juniors but there's just stuff out there to the contrary.  who is already coming?
I think at forward Parker Murray and Charlie Majog are pretty much a certainty for the fall. Possibly Aiden Long too. Hard to see bringing in much more than that given the existing log-jam. FWIW Heisenberg lists only Major and Murray as coming this year at forward, and the only defenseman he has coming in is Nick Wolfenberg. Heisenberg also shows only Erick Roest coming in at goal, with Justin Katz seemingly coming in 2025 (ironically, Katz and Roest are born 2 days apart).

CAS

I would like to see BCHL rookie of the year Chase Pirtle come this year.

scoop85

Quote from: CASI would like to see BCHL rookie of the year Chase Pirtle come this year.

I know he was drafted in the USHL draft, so perhaps he'll spend a year there before heading to Cornell. I know he's talented, but he may be better off getting top line minutes in juniors than trying to fight for ice time with us.

Trotsky


Trotsky

Moving over from the older thread, it would be interesting to note our most-hyped incoming players.  I'm not privy to that information, so I have no insight. It's also easy to be polluted by the actual results of careers once here.

I do recall Riley Nash as having a "thank god he chose us!" presence in fans' minds before he entered.  

I seem to recall Ryan Hughes and Doug Murray being heralded, and maybe the McRae brothers.  But it's just not a world I interact with.  There are people here with more access though, if they care to share stories or cases both of those who came and those who slipped away.

BearLover

Quote from: TrotskyMoving over from the older thread, it would be interesting to note our most-hyped incoming players.  I'm not privy to that information, so I have no insight. It's also easy to be polluted by the actual results of careers once here.

I do recall Riley Nash as having a "thank god he chose us!" presence in fans' minds before he entered.  

I seem to recall Ryan Hughes and Doug Murray being heralded, and maybe the McRae brothers.  But it's just not a world I interact with.  There are people here with more access though, if they care to share stories or cases both of those who came and those who slipped away.
There are a few posters here who seem to have kids playing high-level youth hockey who have offered some insight, but outside of these cases I think most of us are just going off of the same publicly available sources.

If anyone is interested in trying to evaluate prospects as a layperson (like me), I can offer the following suggestions:
—The most up-to-date list of commits (for all teams) is Chris Heisenberg's spreadsheet.
—to assess a given committed player, look up their stats on a website like Elite Prospects.
—Evaluating stats can be tricky. First of all, if a player is still in prep school or on a U18/U16 team, it's difficult to evaluate them unless there is a clear point of comparison, such as perhaps a past recruit from the same program (eg. Cornell has had so many players from St. Andrews at this point that we can compare their prep school stats to each other), or another player on their team who is committed to a peer school (eg. a teammate is committed to Harvard).
—Once a player is already in juniors, their stats become easier to evaluate. The best league is the USHL. Then the BCHL. Then probably the AJHL, NAHL, OJHL, and CCHL, in some order. In the USHL, if a forward has a point per game, that is elite. In the BCHL, a bit more than a point per game is elite. A defenseman who averages 2/3 of a point per game in the USHL is really good. Of course, this is all contextual. Some players end up on high scoring teams, some don't.
—I'm not sure if league matters as much for goalies. Goalies are hard to evaluate in general. Still, a .920 save percentage is really good. Particularly in the USHL, that would put him at the top of the league. Again, context matters; the defense surrounding the goalie could be awful, for example.
—All of the above can be viewed as a bit of a sliding scale based on age. For example, an 18-year-old putting up great junior numbers is more impressive than a 20-year-old doing that.
—Obviously, internet stats only go so far. There are many parts to a good hockey player beyond scoring. But there is definitely a correlation between numbers and college success, particularly the better the league you go (i.e. the BCHL and especially the USHL).
—Maybe the best publicly available source for evaluating prospects is the NHL Central Scouting Rankings, which is based on the opinions of real scouts who have actually watched the recruits play. If a player shows up in the rankings, they're usually good. If a player ends up getting drafted, which is usually the case for a player in the top 100 of the rankings, high probability they're good, potentially very good.
—However, the rankings cover only draft-eligible players (ages 18-20), so they miss players who are too young or have aged out. Moreover, it is widely known that the rankings have a blind spot towards "overagers." For example, last year Ryan Walsh was unranked but got drafted, and this year Ben Robertson is unranked.

Swampy

Quote from: BearLover
Quote from: TrotskyMoving over from the older thread, it would be interesting to note our most-hyped incoming players.  I'm not privy to that information, so I have no insight. It's also easy to be polluted by the actual results of careers once here.

I do recall Riley Nash as having a "thank god he chose us!" presence in fans' minds before he entered.  

I seem to recall Ryan Hughes and Doug Murray being heralded, and maybe the McRae brothers.  But it's just not a world I interact with.  There are people here with more access though, if they care to share stories or cases both of those who came and those who slipped away.
There are a few posters here who seem to have kids playing high-level youth hockey who have offered some insight, but outside of these cases I think most of us are just going off of the same publicly available sources.

If anyone is interested in trying to evaluate prospects as a layperson (like me), I can offer the following suggestions:
—The most up-to-date list of commits (for all teams) is Chris Heisenberg's spreadsheet.
—to assess a given committed player, look up their stats on a website like Elite Prospects.
—Evaluating stats can be tricky. First of all, if a player is still in prep school or on a U18/U16 team, it's difficult to evaluate them unless there is a clear point of comparison, such as perhaps a past recruit from the same program (eg. Cornell has had so many players from St. Andrews at this point that we can compare their prep school stats to each other), or another player on their team who is committed to a peer school (eg. a teammate is committed to Harvard).
—Once a player is already in juniors, their stats become easier to evaluate. The best league is the USHL. Then the BCHL. Then probably the AJHL, NAHL, OJHL, and CCHL, in some order. In the USHL, if a forward has a point per game, that is elite. In the BCHL, a bit more than a point per game is elite. A defenseman who averages 2/3 of a point per game in the USHL is really good. Of course, this is all contextual. Some players end up on high scoring teams, some don't.
—I'm not sure if league matters as much for goalies. Goalies are hard to evaluate in general. Still, a .920 save percentage is really good. Particularly in the USHL, that would put him at the top of the league. Again, context matters; the defense surrounding the goalie could be awful, for example.
—All of the above can be viewed as a bit of a sliding scale based on age. For example, an 18-year-old putting up great junior numbers is more impressive than a 20-year-old doing that.
—Obviously, internet stats only go so far. There are many parts to a good hockey player beyond scoring. But there is definitely a correlation between numbers and college success, particularly the better the league you go (i.e. the BCHL and especially the USHL).
—Maybe the best publicly available source for evaluating prospects is the NHL Central Scouting Rankings, which is based on the opinions of real scouts who have actually watched the recruits play. If a player shows up in the rankings, they're usually good. If a player ends up getting drafted, which is usually the case for a player in the top 100 of the rankings, high probability they're good, potentially very good.
—However, the rankings cover only draft-eligible players (ages 18-20), so they miss players who are too young or have aged out. Moreover, it is widely known that the rankings have a blind spot towards "overagers." For example, last year Ryan Walsh was unranked but got drafted, and this year Ben Robertson is unranked.

Thanks, BearLover. This is very helpful. According to Elite Propsects, Central Scouting lists DiGiulian as #124.

For comparison, Chase Pirtle, who's coming in 2025, was the BCHL ROY and scored 52 points in 54 games this year. But even though he's only 19 now, he doesn't seem to be ranked by NHL Central Scouting.

David Harding

Might as well post it here.   Ithaca Voice picks up press release announcing that Ithaca is going to share a USPHL team, The Elmira Impact, with Elmira.  They call it a semi-pro team, but later emphasize that the players don't get paid so they can retain their amateur status.  Ithaca games will be at The Rink in Lansing.

Trotsky

The rubber meets the road in the NHL draft.

Taking the round, to try to compensate for the larger pool of players by relating it to the larger number of teams:


Rd 1 (2) Pokulok, Nash
Rd 2 (8) Nieuwendyk, Manderville, Ratushny, Hughes, Belzile, Pelletier, LeNeveu, Sawada
Rd 3 (10) Dryden, Lowe, O'Byrne, Hynes, Starrett, Cairns, Stienburg, Ertel, Fegaras, Castagna

BearLover

Quote from: TrotskyThe rubber meets the road in the NHL draft.

Taking the round, to try to compensate for the larger pool of players by relating it to the larger number of teams:


Rd 1 (2) Pokulok, Nash
Rd 2 (8) Nieuwendyk, Manderville, Ratushny, Hughes, Belzile, Pelletier, LeNeveu, Sawada
Rd 3 (10) Dryden, Lowe, O'Byrne, Hynes, Starrett, Cairns, Stienburg, Ertel, Fegaras, Castagna
Pokuluk and LeNeveu were drafted after their freshman years. Excluding Riley, whose brother was already on his way to Cornell, only one player (Samara) in 30 years of Schafer was drafted in the first or second round by the time he showed up on campus.

Swampy

Quote from: David HardingMight as well post it here.   Ithaca Voice picks up press release announcing that Ithaca is going to share a USPHL team, The Elmira Impact, with Elmira.  They call it a semi-pro team, but later emphasize that the players don't get paid so they can retain their amateur status.  Ithaca games will be at The Rink in Lansing.

The quote about amateur status actually says something about to become anachronistic:
Quote from: Ithaca VoicePlayers in the USPHL are not compensated, though Kolpien said they are basically working under a full-time hockey schedule. In part, Kolpien said this is because players would lose their amateur eligibility if they accepted a players' salary, which would prevent them from playing in any NCAA program after their time with the Impact. [emphasis added]

While I've been following discussions about the NC$$ proposing to start paying college athletes salaries, I haven't seen this aspect of it discussed. If the NC$$ no longer refrains from paying its "student" athletes to maintain the amateur facade, then what about programs that feed the NCAA? Besides high school & prep sports, there's Pop Warner for football, AAU for basketball, USHL/BCHL/ ... USPHL for hockey, etc.

marty

Quote from: TrotskyThe rubber meets the road in the NHL draft.

Taking the round, to try to compensate for the larger pool of players by relating it to the larger number of teams:


Rd 1 (2) Pokulok, Nash
Rd 2 (8) Nieuwendyk, Manderville, Ratushny, Hughes, Belzile, Pelletier, LeNeveu, Sawada
Rd 3 (10) Dryden, Lowe, O'Byrne, Hynes, Starrett, Cairns, Stienburg, Ertel, Fegaras, Castagna

Morgan Barron?
"When we came off, [Bitz] said, 'Thank God you scored that goal,'" Moulson said. "He would've killed me if I didn't."