Opponents and Others, 2022-23

[BearLover]

If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.

Let's go Q!

[nshapiro]

If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.

Let's go Q!

I'll roll the dice and bet some other bid stealers fail.
I'm rooting for an upstate NY ECAC final.

[nshapiro]

Per nshapiro's assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN's model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell's chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.

I love that you are quoting my numbers, but you do know that conference final four win percentages were picked out of the air, just to prove that the Massey number was not unreasonable, and were further disproved by my realization that winning our semifinal was not sufficient. Also, you should quote my BS number accurately - it was 98.92%, not 98.2%

[BearLover]

Per nshapiro's assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN's model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell's chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.

I love that you are quoting my numbers, but you do know that conference final four win percentages were picked out of the air, just to prove that the Massey number was not unreasonable, and were further disproved by my realization that winning our semifinal was not sufficient. Also, you should quote my BS number accurately - it was 98.92%, not 98.2%

I meant that our odds are down to 98.2% now that we know Cornell beating Harvard is not sufficient. Right?

[andyw2100]

If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.

Let's go Q!

I'll roll the dice and bet some other bid stealers fail.
I'm rooting for an upstate NY ECAC final.

This!

I like our chances in the Championship game, if we get there, over Colgate a lot better than our chances over Quinnipiac. I'm rooting hard for Colgate in the early game.

[ugarte]

the only reason to care about the other semifinal is to make the path to a bid easier. the final is one game, that we have to get to in the first place, and we can beat any of the three remaining teams if we get there. we can lose to any of them too, of course, but for all of bearlover's quixotic complaining about people quoting a forecast number he hates as if he's 1-800-GAMBLER the fact is we can win the game in front of us and our agenda for the rest of the world should be "make our path to the NCAA tournament as independent of our own success as possible."

[upprdeck]

if we are playing Colgate in the finals I dont know that its clear they will be the easier team to beat. they will have beaten Q twice this yr and be playing at a pretty high level.

[Dafatone]

I don't know that I want to make a claim about who I'd rather play in the game after the game we are currently on, but I will say that "in the finals against Q, in the NCAAs if we lose" is more pleasant and relaxing for me, personally, than "in the finals against Colgate, season over if we lose."

Hopefully Denver and SCSU both win their semi games and we can breathe a bit easier. Also hopefully we win our next six games.

[Chris '03]

QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday..  I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.

So I have to root for Q?  Argh!

Gotta root for Q, then if the unthinkable happens, gotta root for Sucks. I hate it.

Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

[arugula]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN's probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don't look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I'm not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn't mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed    = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard              60%
2. BU wins HE                   60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC     30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC    10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108  = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient.  We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament?  I think the latter.  Hate wins out

[Dafatone]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN's probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don't look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I'm not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn't mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed    = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard              60%
2. BU wins HE                   60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC     30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC    10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108  = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient.  We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament?  I think the latter.  Hate wins out

I think I'd take an NCAA bid and a Harvard loss over the opposite, if I had to pick. Can't win it all if you don't play.

[Scersk '97]

Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!

[Chris H82]

If the West captures your soul, you won't be genuinely happy anywhere else.

How true.  I grew up in the West, came to Cornell and then stayed east for 3 years (so many great friends from Cornell).  But the West called, and I came back.  In Montana now, where it is REALLY open.
https://chris-h-stuff.smugmug.com/Bozeman-Panorama/n-q43J5M/i-9x45TMN/A

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!

Exactly.

FTR, I just did a YATC with Colgate losing to Q, us losing to Sucks, Q beating Sucks, and all the other bid-stealers winning.  We make the tourney at #12.

If we beat Sucks and lose to Q, and all the other bid-stealers win, we make the tourney at #10.

If we win out and all the other bid-stealers win, we finish at #7.

If we win out and all favorites win, we finish at #8 (which means Fargo). Meh.

[Trotsky]

Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament?  I think the latter.  Hate wins out

The former.  

The ECACs will always be the pinnacle for me.  The NC$$s are like the Pro Bowl.  Cute and all, but extraneous to the real season.

Now, ideally, we beat Harvard in Placid and Tampa.

Hate has a home here.