ECAC SF Lake Placid: Cornell 6 Brown 0

[upprdeck]

the first 2 nights could have just as easily been 5-1 type wins as a win and a loss.  goalies cover up things some times.

first time in a long time we had a full roster and it showed.  we controlled the 3rd period all 3 games

[CU2007]

Any of you pairwise guys know what our chances look like if we lose to Brown?

[Trotsky]

playoffstatus.com's odds of winning at each step:

Code Select Expand

    [b]ECAC..  NC$$..........
     SF   F  1R  QF  SF   F[/b]
[color=#B31313]Cor .63 .31 .42 .18 .08 .04[/color]
Clk .51 .28 .49 .22 .10 .04
Hvd .49 .26 .43 .19 .08 .04
Brn .37 .14 .04 .02 .01 ---
Qpc .00 .00 .55 .27 .13 .06


[Trotsky]

Any of your pairwise guys know what are chances look like if we lose to Brown?

playoffstatus.com gives us a 63% chance of beating Brown and a 93% chance of making the tournament.

Assuming we have a 100% chance of making the tournament if we beat Brown, that means (.63 * 1.00) + (.37 * x) = .93, where x is the likelihood of making the tournament if we lose to Brown.

Therefore, x = (.93 - .63) / .37 = .30 / .37 = .81

An 81% chance of making the tournament if we lose to Brown.

Edit: LOL, they did the math here.  Least I can still divide.

[BearLover]

Any of your pairwise guys know what are chances look like if we lose to Brown?

playoffstatus.com gives us a 63% chance of beating Brown and a 93% chance of making the tournament.

Assuming we have a 100% chance of making the tournament if we beat Brown, that means (.63 * 1.00) + (.37 * x) = .93, where x is the likelihood of making the tournament if we lose to Brown.

Therefore, x = (.93 - .63) / .37 = .30 / .37 = .81

An 81% chance of making the tournament if we lose to Brown.

Edit: LOL, they did the math here.  Least I can still divide.

Their cut-line is top-15. That's way too lenient.

[jkahn]

Any of your pairwise guys know what are chances look like if we lose to Brown?

playoffstatus.com gives us a 63% chance of beating Brown and a 93% chance of making the tournament.

Assuming we have a 100% chance of making the tournament if we beat Brown, that means (.63 * 1.00) + (.37 * x) = .93, where x is the likelihood of making the tournament if we lose to Brown.

Therefore, x = (.93 - .63) / .37 = .30 / .37 = .81

An 81% chance of making the tournament if we lose to Brown.

Edit: LOL, they did the math here.  Least I can still divide.

But they only give the BU+BC total chance at 19% of one of them making it and stealing a spot.  Given that they are two of the four Hockey East finalists, I'd say that's an underestimate.

[Trotsky]

Their cut-line is top-15. That's way too lenient.

It comes from their assessment of the remaining line movers:

.44 Penn State
.14 Brown
.12 BU x
.06 BC x
.05 WMU y
.03 CC y

where x's and y's are mutually exclusive (i.e., not independent trials)

So really what we have are 4 independent line movers by conference:

.44 Big10
.18 HE
.14 ECAC
.08 NCHC

I can't find a nice online calculator to do all the permutations.  It does seem to me that the likelihood of 2+ hits from those 4 results would be over .50, thus moving the likely cut line to at least 14.  But maybe that's not what they mean.

Edit:  Oh, I get it.  The line is 15 instead of 14 because Notre Dame is currently 15.  The lion's share of the line mover is Pedo State, and if they win Notre Dame drops out.

So the line is correct at 15.  Go figure.  The ND-PSU game is meaningless for everybody else's chances.

[ugarte]

not that it's relevant to the PairWise but this bracket from CHN made me laugh

[BigRedHockeyFan]

playoffstatus.com's odds of winning at each step:

Code Select Expand

    [b]ECAC..  NC$$..........
     SF   F  1R  QF  SF   F[/b]
[color=#B31313]Cor .63 .31 .42 .18 .08 .04[/color]
Clk .51 .28 .49 .22 .10 .04
Hvd .49 .26 .43 .19 .08 .04
Brn .37 .14 .04 .02 .01 ---
Qpc .00 .00 .55 .27 .13 .06


I like the way things have shaped up for next weekend.  Let's hope the Big Red can bring home an ECAC championship.

[upprdeck]

the brackets were reseeded so people moved to where the belong based on that.

We know we need to be in the top 14 with the b10 and the atlantic getting bids.  after that how many other teams steal a bid.

Really need to route for the big boys to come through in the other conf to increase our margin

But if we lose to brown that also means they could steal one..

clarson beating Harvard helps too.

[Jim Hyla]

Per Anne, Section 24 is being sold as "General Admission."

We bought seats in 24 right after the game, from the Cornell box office. They were selling actual seats in 24, and marking the sold seats on a seating chart. The two people in the two windows were coordinating with one person who had the actual tickets, and a third  map, and all three maps were being kept in sync.

So I believe Anne's information is faulty.

We also bought right after the game and were able to pick seats. However my email says GA and I'm at work, so I can't check my tickets. When I tried to buy from CU online just now they said "The Cornell allotment includes ALL-SESSION TICKETS ONLY in section 24. If purchasing online, tickets will be assigned best available in the section."

So I think the GA is just because they can't enter the seat numbers online, but you get exact seats.

We'll find out Friday.

[Trotsky]

We also bought right after the game and were able to pick seats. However my email says GA and I'm at work, so I can't check my tickets. When I tried to buy from CU online just now they said "The Cornell allotment includes ALL-SESSION TICKETS ONLY in section 24. If purchasing online, tickets will be assigned best available in the section."

So I think the GA is just because they can't enter the seat numbers online, but you get exact seats.

We'll find out Friday.

I think I remember all this from last year, and it's exactly as you say.  See you there!

[Beeeej]

Any of you pairwise guys know what our chances look like if we lose to Brown?

Leaving aside all the probabilities mentioned in other responses to your query, simply plugging in a Brown win shows us this:

Brown + Clarkson final = Cornell at #12
Brown + Harvard final = Cornell at #13

That's also leaving aside all the other conference tournament games that will be played this weekend, which will also have an effect on the math - and leaving aside the fact that Brown getting to the final increases by a non-zero amount the chance that a team not already in the top 15 wins the ECAC tournament. Obviously I like our chances better if we lose to Brown and they face Clarkson in the final, but I like our chances much better if we don't lose to Brown. ::cheer::

Not going to bother with the math for us losing in the final - I think at this point with us in #11, the math very likely dictates that a semifinal win more or less locks us up for an at-large berth.

[Jim Hyla]

Just to finalize what I said before, I checked my tickets that I got from CU last night and they do show seat numbers. So the GA thing is likely just a computer/programming issue.

[upprdeck]

cornell had almost 4 k at the 3 games this weekend.. the other 3 teams combined 5k+.. Harvard with 900..  Quin/Clark around 2.

not sure that points at any big crowds up in lake placed.