Wrestling 2018-19

[ugarte]

Regular season closes tonight with a dual against #5 Ohio State. Chalk says the Buckeyes are the favorites at seven of ten weights but surprisingly the computer at WrestleStat.com (which ranks wrestlers ELO-style but compares them one-on-one inscrutably) is picking the Big Red (with upsets at 133, 165 and 197). A lot of great matches here, particularly 141 and 197.

125: #8 Arujau vs. #17 Heinselman
133: #13 Tucker vs. #6 Pletcher
141: #1 Diakomihalis vs. #3 McKenna
149: Furnas Koll vs. #3 Jordan
157: Santoro vs. #6 Hayes
165: Berreyesa vs. #12 Campbell
174: #14 Womack vs. #19 Smith
184: #7 Dean vs. #1 Martin
197: #7 Honis vs. #2 Moore
285: Sweany vs. #11 Singletary

6:30 on ESPN+.

Rough night for the good guys. I only watched scattered matches (life, you know?) so some of this is just off of the score.

149: They started at 149 so the feature match could close it out. Furnas still out, so Koll stepped in. Facing the #3 wrestler in the country when you're not in game shape is a tall order and the outcome was as expected: tech fall. [OSU 5-0]

157: Santoro a bit out of his depth. Loses a major. [OSU 12-0]

165: Got to watch this one. Berreyesa did a good job tying up Campbell with his Greco underhooks. It kept Campbell from attacking and forced him into two stall calls, giving Berreyesa a 1-0 lead. After an escape in the second he led 2-0. Campbell escaped as expected to start the third, but Berreyesa was doing a good job frustrating Campbell and then ... took a halfearted shot and Campbell fired back and took Berreyesa down straight to his back and Berreyesa was lucky to avoid the pin. Still, that takedown and rideout was worth seven points, and a close win turned into a not so close loss. [OSU 15-0]

174: Saw this one too. Womack kept giving up his ankle way too easily. He never really took a good shot of his own, and was working exclusively to get points off of a counter. It never worked. He nearly converted one counterattack, but only scored off of two escapes and some stalling points, losing 5-4. [OSU 18-0]

184: Martin is #1, undefeated, and Dean did well to avoid the major decision. [OSU 21-0]

197: Some people saw this as a potential upset for Honis and the Big Red but it wasn't to be. Moore wins going away for a major decision. [OSU 25-0]

285: Sweany had the lead for a lot of this one but couldn't hold it, and Cornell lost it's 7th in a row. Oof. [OSU 28-0]

125: Arujau gets the takedowns he needs and rides hard, and Cornell gets on the board with a shutout win. [OSU 28-3]

133: Finally got to start watching again. Tucker and Pletcher have both spent this season in low scoring defensive dogfights. Earlier this year, Pletcher won 4-3 when Tucker just missed getting a takedown at the buzzer to win. This time there was no offensive scoring in regulation, sending the match to OT tied 1-1. No offense in SV either, so it went to rideouts. Tucker went on top first, and rode for the full 30 seconds, but not without some controversy. The refs awarded an escape with 9 seconds left, but Cornell challenged, saying the wrestlers were already out of bounds. Cornell won the challenge and the point came off the board. Then, while Tucker was trying to hold on to Pletcher and return him, Ohio State challenged, claiming that Tucker locked his hands, an illegal move that would have cost him a point. Refs looked at that too, but upheld the call on the mat. Tucker escaped in his rideout and was able to avoid being taken down, for a huge resume-builder win against a top 10 opponent. [OSU 28-6]

141: All Yianni. He got two takedowns from his feet and did an incredible job defending when McKenna was able to get in on one of his legs. Not only did he never give up a takedown, but he countered one move with a really creative ankle pick to get his own points. He did give up a reversal on an awkward scramble, but he showed that he still has the incredible flexibility he had before his injury. Great finish to a rough night. [OSU 28-9]

Rough finish to the regular season but no real surprises in the results of this one. The computer predicatron is going to have to lick its wounds. The team is looking strong and healthy heading into EIWAs and really starting to get some buzz for nationals and another top 10 finish. Conference tournament is March 8th in Binghamton.

[George64]

Future Cornellian, Greg Diakomihalis, wins NY state wrestling title. Rochester D and C

[ugarte]

Future Cornellian, Greg Diakomihalis, wins NY state wrestling title. Rochester D and C

Runs away with it, going pin, pin, 16-3 tech, pin. All of the pins came in the first period and maybe the tech did too. Fourth state title and he's only a junior.

Also at National Preps, the two finalists at 170 were both Cornell recruits, Julian Ramirez and Mason Reiniche.


In other wrestling news, there are certain minimum criteria that wrestlers have to meet for postseason qualifications. First, there is the pre-allocation of bids to each conference in each weight class. They are assigned by a combination of a conference's wrestlers' Top 30 Coaches Ranking, Top 30 RPI (minimum 17 matches) and > .700 Win% (minimum 8 matches), but on an upward-sliding scale so that a max of 29 bids are allocated. For a wrestler to earn a bid for the conference, he needs two of three of those criteria, but the criteria will be slightly different for each weight class. Because the last day to wrestle a qualifying match was yesterday, Cornell sent three wrestlers to Lock Haven to compete in a small tournament for a little resume polishing (which, I am pretty sure is the point of the tournament, so props to Lock Haven for hosting it):

149: Jonathan Furnas went 2-0 to get his winning percentage to exactly .700. His RPI the last time it was released was 16, so even though he is unlikely to be ranked, he may still earn the conference a bid, depending on where the winning percentage slider lands.

157: Adam Santoro went 2-0 to boost his winning percentage to .737. I assume he wrestled in the hope of getting a ranking or an RPI boost? At 12-5 he was already over .700 and his last match - against a guy who is 2-11 - may have hurt his RPI more than it helped? We'll see. He was on the fringes of the top 30 in WrestleStat's unofficial calculation.

285: Jeramy Sweany went 1-0 to get his season total to 17 matches so he qualifies for an RPI. He will be high enough in the top 30 for both RPI and CR that his .647 winning percentage shouldn't hurt him earning an allocation.

All of them quit the tournament as soon as they achieved their goals since an upset loss would have hurt much more than a win would have helped, and forfeiting a match doesn't count against your record for the purposes of these calculations. Similarly, a forfeit win doesn't help, which is why Sweany needed the match yesterday - Harvard didn't send out a heavyweight as a sacrificial lamb so the "win" helped the team but left a hole in his resume.

[mountainred]

I'll let ugarte correct my math, but it looks like Furnas and Santoro earned the league automatic berths -- of course that is only part of the test as both have to win at the EIWA (Furnas needs to finish 5th, Santoro needs 6th). Only Berreyesa will have to "steal" a spot by finishing at least 4th next weekend.

In other news, another blue-chip recruit is headed to Ithaca:  Josh Saunders

[ugarte]

I'll let ugarte correct my math, but it looks like Furnas and Santoro earned the league automatic berths -- of course that is only part of the test as both have to win at the EIWA (Furnas needs to finish 5th, Santoro needs 6th). Only Berreyesa will have to "steal" a spot by finishing at least 4th next weekend.

Apparently Furnas fell just short of earning the conference a spot, according to Seton Hall Pirate (who I think is the SID for the Eastern Wrestling League). Furnas had a qualifying RPI but no CR and his winning percentage probably fell short of the minimum once they set the sliding scale - mildly disappointing because they only allocated 28 of 29 potential autobids, but it's possible there was no other configuration that would allow exactly one more qualifier. You can see how many qualifiers each conference got at each weight in the attached image.

Code Select Expand


[b]Wt.  CR  RPI[/b]
125   7   10 Arujau - i thought his undefeated record would get him a much higher RPI
133  12    5 Tucker - amazing season especially when the consensus was that arujau was going to take his starting spot
141   1    2 Diakomihalis - also undefeated, beat #1 and #3 in RPI
149  NA   22 Furnas - the extra two matches almost paid off; i was hoping he'd sneak into the CR as well - i think he'll steal the bid.
157  32   25 Santoro - qualifying for RPI made the difference because you need to be top 30 to get earn a conference AQ spot
165  NA   NA Berreyesa - 4-4 record not going to cut it but finishing top four is not a longshot
174  15   12 Womack - got to be more careful on defense - he rarely loses when he shouldn't but he also hasn't pulled an upset in ages
184   8   10 Dean - two losses he needs to avenge - Lehigh's Preisch (pinned him at EIWA finals last year) and Binghamton's Deprez
197   9   10 Honis - may even get the top seed because of his win over Princeton's Brucki
285  22   24 Sweany - I want to see him back at NCAAs a third time


In other news, another blue-chip recruit is headed to Ithaca:  Josh Saunders

We have such a good pipeline. He's the second top-flight junior commitment that I know of (Yianni's brother is the other). The seniors we have coming in are also insanely good. Right now we have three highly-ranked recruits blowing through the NJ State tournament.

[nshapiro]

Does each conference also get a few wildcard entries to distribute as they see fit?

[ugarte]

Does each conference also get a few wildcard entries to distribute as they see fit?

No. The conferences each get "pre-allocated bids" based on the expected entrants at the respective conference tournaments. At the conference tournaments, each school gets to enter one wrestler in each weight class. If the wrestler who earned the pre-allocated bid isn't the school's entry, the conference loses the bid unless the backup also would have met the qualifying criteria (based on Coaches' Ranking, RPI and winning percentage). The top X finishers in each weight class, based on the number of allocated bids (the table from my prior post less any replacement entries), get Automatic Qualification for NCAAs.

At NCAA's, there are 33 wrestlers for each weight. That means that there are at least 4 at-large entries in each weight, but they are not given to the conferences to distribute. The NCAA selects the at-large entrants from among wrestlers who meet certain post-tournament criteria.

A wrestler is eligible for an at-large bid if he meets at least two of the following criteria:

a) .700 Win% against D-I at weight
b) Top 33 RPI (post-tournament)
c) Top 33 CR (post-tournament)
d) One win over an NCAA automatic qualifier.
e) Finishing one spot out of AQ position at the conference tournament.
f) .700 Win% overall (presumably all college, any weight)

How they choose among the potential at-large candidates is not entirely clear but I think it is more complicated than "most criteria."

Also, you have to have been entered into your conference tournament. So if a starter gets injured and fails to earn an automatic bid, an otherwise-qualified backup will not be considered for an at-large bid.

[RichH]

Does each conference also get a few wildcard entries to distribute as they see fit?

No. The conferences each get "pre-allocated bids" based on the expected entrants at the respective conference tournaments. At the conference tournaments, each school gets to enter one wrestler in each weight class. If the wrestler who earned the pre-allocated bid isn't the school's entry, the conference loses the bid unless the backup also would have met the qualifying criteria (based on Coaches' Ranking, RPI and winning percentage). The top X finishers in each weight class, based on the number of allocated bids (the table from my prior post less any replacement entries), get Automatic Qualification for NCAAs.

At NCAA's, there are 33 wrestlers for each weight. That means that there are at least 4 at-large entries in each weight, but they are not given to the conferences to distribute. The NCAA selects the at-large entrants from among wrestlers who meet certain post-tournament criteria.

A wrestler is eligible for an at-large bid if he meets at least two of the following criteria:

a) .700 Win% against D-I at weight
b) Top 33 RPI (post-tournament)
c) Top 33 CR (post-tournament)
d) One win over an NCAA automatic qualifier.
e) Finishing one spot out of AQ position at the conference tournament.
f) .700 Win% overall (presumably all college, any weight)

How they choose among the potential at-large candidates is not entirely clear but I think it is more complicated than "most criteria."

Also, you have to have been entered into your conference tournament. So if a starter gets injured and fails to earn an automatic bid, an otherwise-qualified backup will not be considered for an at-large bid.

With all respect to the great wrestling fans on this forum and thread, this is almost as confusing as actually watching a wrestling match.

Seriously, thanks to ugarles, mountainred, and the other contributors here. I don't totally understand or follow the sport that well, but your amazing write-ups on this forum help me keep up in great detail how these athletes are doing, and sometimes I learn things like how scoring works.

[ugarte]

With all respect to the great wrestling fans on this forum and thread, this is almost as confusing as actually watching a wrestling match.

Seriously, thanks to ugarles, mountainred, and the other contributors...

lol you're welcome

think of it this way - instead of a conference champ getting a bid, a conference's entire body of work earns the number of automatic qualifier spots for roughly every top 29 guy they have. then, at the conference tournament, everyone else tries to steal those bids. after the tournament, the at-large bids are like saving throws for the 4ish best guys who honked their conference tournament.

[mountainred]

Here is a great guide to help understand scoring at the EIWA Tournament.

This is NOT my work, but the work of a wrestling poster, JDALU75, who is well-connected at the EIWA.  All credit to him.  His summary:

Here's an easy way to keep up with the live scoring --

In the championship bracket a win in the preliminary round is worth 1.0 point. Wins in the quarterfinals and semifinals are each worth 7.0 points. Wins in the finals are worth 4.0 points. Add any bonus points earned in each round.

In the consolation bracket a win in the first prelim round is worth 0.5 point. Wins in the second prelim round, quarterfinals, and semifinals are each worth 3.5 points. Wins in all consi final (placement) bouts are worth 1.0 point. Add any bonus points earned in each round.

Bonus points are: 2.0 for wins by fall, forfeit (including med forfeits), default, and disqualification; 1.5 for wins by technical fall; 1.0 for wins by major decision. No bonus points are awarded for an advancement by bye.

[ugarte]

Wins in the quarterfinals and semifinals are each worth 7.0 points. Wins in the finals are worth 4.0 points.

If this seems strange, remember:

A win in the QF means that you place no worse than 6th, so the wrestler is given the points for placing 6th (6 points, plus 1 for advancing = 7).
A win in the SF earns the placement points for 2nd (12 points, plus 1 for advancing, but that includes the six already credited for at least getting to 6th last round = 7).
The difference between 2nd and 1st is 4 additional placement points but there is no "advancement" point because the Final is considered a medal round, like the consolation bouts for 3d, 5th and 7th.

The way wrestling placement points work is that there is a one point bump for the difference between 3/4, 5/6 and 7/8 but a 4 point difference between 1/2. (16/12, 10/9, 7/6. 4/3).

"Pre-seeding" for the conference tournament is released tonight, then there is a coaches conference where they get to complain about the decisions the EIWA made and there may be minor changes on Thursday. Seedings are finalized at weigh-in on Friday morning, with any pre-seed who fails to show or make weight dropped out of the seeding before the brackets are drawn and locked. Each weight is seeded at least 8 and up to 10 deep with 16 member schools.

[Cop at Lynah]

Came across this video.  Two current Big Red wrestlers facing each other in high school

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWLNIiGD-9c

[ugarte]

The pre-seeds are out for EIWAs. You can find the full conference list here.

For us, all of our wrestlers are seeded. The first column is the seed, followed by the number of AQ bids in parens.

Code Select Expand


125: Arujau    1 (4)
133: Tucker    1 (4)
141: Yianni    1 (3)
149: Furnas    7 (5)
157: Santoro   6 (6)
165: Berreyesa 7 (4)
174: Womack    2 (5)
184: Dean      1 (6)
197: Honis     2 (6)
285: Sweany    3 (4)

I was knocking around Seton Hall Pirate's pre-allocation page, and noticed that he included the sliding scales for each weight.

I was looking because I wanted to look closer at Cornell's final-weekend strategy to get extra allocated bids. Here's what I figured out:

Going 1-0 was perfect for Sweany, since he qualified for RPI and ended up with top 25 CR and RPI and the scale was 30/30/.700

Going 2-0 was perfect for Santoro because he ended up with NA/25/.737 when he needed 29/29/.710 - and by forfeiting to American's Khizan Clarke instead of beating him,* *Clarke* was able to keep his RPI at 26 and apparently push his winning percentage high enough for the pre-allocation.

Furnas, though.. he's the reason I was looking at this in the first place. He went 2-0 to get to exactly .700, which made him technically eligible but it wasn't enough. The scale at 149 was 29/29/.710... but if he'd wrestled and beat West Virginia's Hornfeck* (who he beat in South Beach) he'd have bumped to .714 and earned the pre-allocation. If he lost, he would (in retrospect) have been no worse off.

Anyway, this is what I do with my time while I'm waiting for the tournament on Friday.

* not saying he'd have definitely won

[ugarte]

With all respect to the great wrestling fans on this forum and thread, this is almost as confusing as actually watching a wrestling match.

If you want to read something wild, check this out from John Aadland, the SID for the conference about the many meanings of "winning percentage," which corrects me on a mistake I made on that forum about American's 157, believing that his winning percentage was below the reported minimum of .710:

If you look at things until your eyes glaze over you'll see that Clarke's WP is .720. Don't count non-Div I bouts nor his 149 results. Pirate's pretty reliable on this stuff.

I don't doubt that Pirate takes it seriously but I keep looking at Clarke's record - I double-checked WrestleStat against the American stats page and I get 17-7 (.708) at 157, discounting all of 149, a loss against Nebraska-Kearney and the MFF over Santoro at Lock Haven. You only get to .720 (18-7) if you count the Santoro MFF. And if you count the Santoro MFF, it would drop Santoro from 14-5 (.737) to 14-6 (.700).

Ah! But if you go far enough down the rabbit hole you'll see that you're looking at the wrong winning percentage. Med forfeit losses never count against a wrestler. Med forfeit wins don't count in the winning percentage used to determine RPI, but they do count in the stand-alone winning percentage used as one leg of determining AQs. Clarke's RPI winning percentage is .708, but his stand-alone WP is .720. Both are different from his full winning percentage of .692 (includes a loss to a D2 wrestler at 157), which would only factor in his earning bronze status if he fails to finish high enough at EIWAs. No sane man would come up with a system using three different winning percentages, but the NCAA did.

(Eyes glazing over)

[mountainred]

Going 2-0 was perfect for Santoro because he ended up with NA/25/.737 when he needed 29/29/.710 - and by forfeiting to American's Khizan Clarke instead of beating him,* *Clarke* was able to keep his RPI at 26 and apparently push his winning percentage high enough for the pre-allocation.

Furnas, though.. he's the reason I was looking at this in the first place. He went 2-0 to get to exactly .700, which made him technically eligible but it wasn't enough. The scale at 149 was 29/29/.710... but if he'd wrestled and beat West Virginia's Hornfeck* (who he beat in South Beach) he'd have bumped to .714 and earned the pre-allocation. If he lost, he would (in retrospect) have been no worse off.

Anyway, this is what I do with my time while I'm waiting for the tournament on Friday.

* not saying he'd have definitely won

Interesting stuff, if a bit in the weeds.  I can't imagine that if Santoro had beaten Khizan Clarke it would have hurt his RPI (Clarke's RPI is top 30).  A loss on the other hand....  Absolutely the right call to send Adam to the showers after 2-0.

I'd like to think Jon would have beaten the WVU wrestler, but after two weeks off, I can see the coaching staff taking the 2 wins and hoping for the best.  It almost worked.  5 AQ's give him a fair shot, but he's facing a tough QF (assuming he wins his first).

I would not be the least surprised to see Dean moved off the top seed line by the coaches.  I bet Lehigh lobbies for it hard.