Wrestling 2018-19

[mountainred]

With all respect to the great wrestling fans on this forum and thread, this is almost as confusing as actually watching a wrestling match.

If you want to read something wild, check this out from John Aadland, the SID for the conference about the many meanings of "winning percentage," which corrects me on a mistake I made on that forum about American's 157, believing that his winning percentage was below the reported minimum of .710:

If you look at things until your eyes glaze over you'll see that Clarke's WP is .720. Don't count non-Div I bouts nor his 149 results. Pirate's pretty reliable on this stuff.

I don't doubt that Pirate takes it seriously but I keep looking at Clarke's record - I double-checked WrestleStat against the American stats page and I get 17-7 (.708) at 157, discounting all of 149, a loss against Nebraska-Kearney and the MFF over Santoro at Lock Haven. You only get to .720 (18-7) if you count the Santoro MFF. And if you count the Santoro MFF, it would drop Santoro from 14-5 (.737) to 14-6 (.700).

Ah! But if you go far enough down the rabbit hole you'll see that you're looking at the wrong winning percentage. Med forfeit losses never count against a wrestler. Med forfeit wins don't count in the winning percentage used to determine RPI, but they do count in the stand-alone winning percentage used as one leg of determining AQs. Clarke's RPI winning percentage is .708, but his stand-alone WP is .720. Both are different from his full winning percentage of .692 (includes a loss to a D2 wrestler at 157), which would only factor in his earning bronze status if he fails to finish high enough at EIWAs. No sane man would come up with a system using three different winning percentages, but the NCAA did.

(Eyes glazing over)

Nope, too many weeds there!

[ugarte]

Interesting stuff, if a bit in the weeds.  I can't imagine that if Santoro had beaten Khizan Clarke it would have hurt his RPI (Clarke's RPI is top 30).  A loss on the other hand....  Absolutely the right call to send Adam to the showers after 2-0.

Oh, that's not what I meant. I meant that Clarke may have taken an RPI hit from the loss but definitely would have taken a critical winning percentage hit. As it turns out, Clarke gets credit for the MFF win *and* went on to win the final while Santoro doesn't get penalized for forfeiting out after winning his first two.

So a win by Santoro over Clarke would have hurt the conference, a MFF helped Clarke without hurting Santoro, and the extra AQ slot for the conference benefits them both.

[ugarte]

The coaches' meeting tweaked the pre-seeds a little. Santoro bumped down from 6 to 7 and Berreyesa was dropped from 7 to 9. Wrestling starts tomorrow at 11 EST.
 
Let's Go Red!

The first column is the seed, followed by the number of AQ bids in parens.

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125: Arujau    1 (4)
133: Tucker    1 (4)
141: Yianni    1 (3)
149: Furnas    7 (5)
157: Santoro   7 (6)
165: Berreyesa 9 (4)
174: Womack    2 (5)
184: Dean      1 (6)
197: Honis     2 (6)
285: Sweany    3 (4)

[ugarte]

First round was almost perfect

125: (7) Arujau W 7-4 next: v Campbell (Bucknell)
133: (10) Tucker WBF 6:49 next v Zapf (Harvard)
141: (1) Yianni WBF 1:42 next v Gil (F&M)
149: Furnas WMD 10-2 next v (14) Artalona (Penn) rematch from the dual; Artalona won 3-1 in SV
157: Santoro L 8-7 next v Mauriello (Hofstra) (consolation)
165: Berreyesa W 10-6 next v (16) Jarrell (Drexel)
174: (16)Womack WBF 1:27 next v McLaughlin (Drexel)
184: (7) Dean WBF 4:17 next v Inlander (Bucknell)
197: (7) Honis WBF 2:12 next v Jakobsen (Lehigh) renatch from the dual; Honis won 6-2
285: Sweany WTF 17-2 (5:19) next v Butterbrodt (Brown)

consy:
157: Santoro WMD 13-3

After Session 1, Cornell and Lehigh both go 9-1 and win the consy to keep everyone alive. Army goes 10-0 but not much bonus. Princeton goes 7-3 and keeps everyone alive, racking up bonus in the wrestlebacks with three straight pins.

After the morning session:

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                Champ/Consy
Lehigh    24.5  9/1
Princeton 23.5  7/3
Cornell   23    9/1
Army      18   10/0
American  14.5  6/2

Sacred Heart went 0-20 and can head home before the evening session. Yikes. Looked like maybe a stunner at 184 over Princeton's Parker - SHU got an early takedown and rode out the first period for 2:45 of RT but took bottom for the second period and got pinned in 42 seconds.

Session 2 is at 6pm.

[ugarte]

Second session was mostly fine but a few real disappointments.

QF
125: Arujau WTF 19-1 next vs. Chalifoux (Army) - right where he should be
131: Tucker W 5-2 next vs. Peters (Army) - right where he should be
141: Yianni WTF 18-3 next vs. Sparacio (Binghamton) - right where he should be
149: Furnas L 3-1 SV - same score as the regular season matchup against #14 Artalona
165: Berreyesa LMD 10-0 - not a surprise against the 1 seed/#16
174: Womack WBF 3:45 next vs Stefanek (Princeton) - Womack won 7-5 when they met at the dual meet
184: Dean WBF 1:10 next vs LaFragiola (Brown) - WBF when they met at the dual this year, 5-0 last year Qualified for NCAA.
197: Honis W 5-1 next vs Phipps (Bucknell) - by seed, Honis catches a break but Phipps has been hot Qualified for NCAA
285: Sweany L 6-4 - terrible loss ugh

Consy 1
157: Santoro WMD 13-3

Consy 2
149: Furnas L 4-1 to F&M - so disappointing. really thought he had a shot at going to the tournament his senior year
157: Santoro L 8-5 to American - also disappointing but i guess an obviously good thing that he didn't wrestle Clarke at Lock Haven
165: Berreyesa WBF 4:04 - up next Wolf (Lehigh) - would be really big for the team title to stuff Lehigh here. needs two more wins to steal a bid.
285: Sweany WMD 8-0 - up next #18 Goodhart (Drexel) - this was supposed to be the SF. tough road from here and he needs two wins.

I really thought we had a shot of qualifying 10 but that was rose-colored glasses. Should have had 7 easy, but Sweany losing before the semi really hurts. Semis start at 10am.

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After Session 2:        
Lehigh    85 6/3
Cornell   82 6/2
Princeton 82 6/2
Army      78 6/4

[mountainred]

Sweany was in on two shots in the last minute of his quarter loss, but couldn't finish either. Then he gave up the late takedown. Sadly, that's kind of been the story of his career.  I think you and I both thought Honis would have been the heavy this season if Ben hadn't been needed at 197.

Jon just didn't look like himself in the wrestleback loss.  Did he take a single shot?  Maybe he wasn't fully healthy after all?  

Still, Cornell can get six into the finals and all six looked good. My biggest fear is Vito first thing this morning.  His first bout yesterday was very low energy (especially for him.)  EDIT:  I shouldn't have worried, Vito won easily (13-1).

[dag14]

Six in the finals with Berreyesa and Sweaney wrestling for 7th

[ugarte]

Six in the finals with Berreyesa and Sweaney wrestling for 7th

Berreyesa takes 8th, Sweany 7th.

We have 6 finalists, Lehigh has 4. Lehigh has 5 more in other placement rounds while we have none. We trail Lehigh by 9 heading into the medal round and go head to head at 174 and 184. We're the underdog in both, despite Dean's higher seed. We're also the underdog at 197, but won head to head earlier this year.

Tough path to first.

[ugarte]

125: Arujau dropped a heartbreaker to Glory, 10-8.

133: Tucker wins his first EIWA championship. Amazing.

141: Yianni wins his second EIWA championship.

174: Womack kept it close but lost to Kutler.

184: Dean gets revenge for getting pinned in last year's final and beats Preisch 3-0 for his first EIWA title.

197: Honis keeps it close but can't get the takedown he needed at the end and loses top Brucki. Just as at 125, Princeton wins the rematch.

All told, Lehigh won the team title comfortably for the second year in a row and we placed second. More later maybe.

[ugarte]

Sweany 7th.

Sweany survives and gets to go to NCAAs for the third time by earning an at-large bid. Congrats. Cornell sends 7 to Pittsburgh.

[Al DeFlorio]

Sweany 7th.

Sweany survives and gets to go to NCAAs for the third time by earning an at-large bid. Congrats. Cornell sends 7 to Pittsburgh.

Not-so-minor miracle, I'd say.

[ugarte]

Sweany 7th.

Sweany survives and gets to go to NCAAs for the third time by earning an at-large bid. Congrats. Cornell sends 7 to Pittsburgh.

Not-so-minor miracle, I'd say.

Hard to say how many people he was competing with. He had two wins against AQs and probably kept his top 30 RPI and CR. Still can't believe he lost to Butterbrodt.

[ugarte]

NCAA brackets are out: https://arena.flowrestling.org/event/097e53e8-3ef4-476e-8170-27a58f550378

125: #8 Arujau vs #25 Montoya (Northern Colorado) - NoCo is coached by Cornell's 4x AA and national champ Troy Nickerson.
133: #9 Tucker vs #24 Fehlman (Lock Haven) - Tucker won 7-5 in SV in the CU - LHU dual.
141: #1 Diakomihalis vs the winner of a pigtial match between the last two in, Lipari (Rutgers) and Sandoval (Northern Colorado).
174: #16 Womack vs #17 Richards (VMI) - Richards is 28-4 and on a very long winning streak but against a very soft schedule.
184: #5 Dean vs #28 Stewart (Army) - an EIWA matchup that didn't happen during the tournament. Dean beat Stewart two years ago during his greyshirt year.
197: #9 Honis vs #24 Jakobsen (Lehigh) - another EIWA matchup. Honis beat Jakobsen at the Lehigh dual 6-2 then again at the tournament 5-1.
285: #24 Sweany vs #9 Stencel (Central Michigan) - two years ago, Sweany won by fall but Stencel has had a far better year

Annoyingly, everyone who isn't #1 ended up on the side of the bracket with the #1 wrestler. Womack would face him in the second round, Arujau, Tucker, Honis and Sweany in the QF and Dean in the SF. A fluke path-clearing loss to advance is a lot less likely. The tournament is the tournament, though, and you face whoever is on the mat. The tournament starts on March 21.

[ugarte]

Finally got around to looking at how the double-elimination paths to placing work out and posted it on the wrestling forum so I may as well cross post a modified version here.

125: #8 Arujau should get to quarters and obviously #1 Rivera's a tough matchup (that's why he's #1). The nightmare scenario is #3 Lee (and returning champ) getting upset and falling into his path on the bottom. Otherwise #14 Fausz (and World Junior team member) is the dangerous guy in the blood round.

133: #9 Tucker has a rematch with #8 Erneste (who beat him earlier this year) in the second round, which is not great, and he'd then probably immediately have the loser of #6 Lizak (who beat him) /and #11 Wilson (3d place last year) which is also not great! Even if he beats Erneste, it looks to me like the bracket still sends him the loser of Lizak or Wilson, but later in the consolation bracket. Tough road.

141: #1 Yianni has to face whoever. Bottom of the bracket doesn't matter. If he's there something has already gone awry.

174: I like #16 Womack over VMI but the 16 seed is a very tough place to be. He's going to lose in the second round to #1 Hall. He could make the blood round but probably has to go through Lydy or McFadden, both of whom beat him this year, to get back to All-American. Both matches were close, so I could definitely see him pulling off another big tournament win.

184: If #5 Dean gets through #4 Parker, everything else is gravy. If he doesn't, I still don't think there's anyone interesting he'd have to face before he earns a place on the podium.

197: If #9 Honis beats #8 Traxler to get to the QF his blood round looks good unless #2 Moore somehow loses without getting hurt. If he loses to Traxler, the loser of #3 Weigel /#6 Miklus is a really tough hurdle.

285: There was a dropout at heavy, so #23 Sweany is now facing #10 Hemida. Likely loss, and also likely ... rematch with Brown's Butterbrodt in the first round of the consolation bracket to avenge his inexplicable loss at EIWA! The path for anyone who loses in the first round is going to be incredibly hard and he'd end up facing the loser of #8 / #9 and #9 pinned him earlier this year.

This could be a lot worse.

[ugarte]

Session I was ... not great. 4-3 record, with two of our guys losing in upsets and a couple of the wins were uninspired.

125:#8 Arujau MD 12-2 #25 Heinselman (tOSU). Vito was in control most of the match but gave up a third period takedown which looked like it might make things interesting. Heinselman let Vito up because he needed to score a lot but he lost focus and rather than take the escape, Arujau fired back and got a reversal plus a cradle for 4NF points, which made the difference in getting a major decision. Up next: #9 Foley (Michigan State).

133: #9 Tucker L 2-7 #24 Fehlman (LHU). Tucker was up 2-1 after the first but Fehlman chose top to start the second period and was dominant from the position. He rode for the entire two minutes plus got a 4 point nearfall. He played defense the entire third period and protected the lead. Up next #25 Spann (Buffalo).

141: #1 Yianni W 10-5 #33 Lipari (Rutgers). A somewhat lackluster win over a wrestler who came into the tournament with a losing record. Up next is returning AA #16 Red (Nebraska).

174: #16 Womack W 11-10 TB-1 #17 Richards (VMI). This match should not have been close but Womack was very careless on defense and gave up multiple takedowns in the first and third periods, including one with under 10 seconds left to send the match to OT when he had two stalls to give and could have made Richards chase him. He had more gas in the tank at the end and won in the rideouts. Up next, #1 Hall (PSU).

184: #5 Dean MD 13-2 Stewart (Army). Comfortable win. Never in any danger. Up next, #12 Wilcke (Iowa).

197: #9 Honis L 5-8 #24 Jakobsen (Lehigh). With a 3-0 lead and a hold of a leg, Honis looked in control, but he duffed finishing the takedown and ended up on bottom after a scramble. Jakobsen was then able to get a cradle for 4 NF points and was mostly able to defend Honis until the clock ran out in the third period. Up next is Bulsak (Clarion).

285: #23 Sweany L 1-7 Hemida (Maryland). Sweany couldn't do anything against Hemida all match. He gets a rematch against #26 Butterbrodt, who beat him at EIWA.

All in all, a bummer of an early session. Only Dean looked great start to finish. Tucker and Honis both fell flat. Yianni has a really tough second round match against a returning All-American holding an inexplicably low 16 seed. Womack went to OT against a wrestler he should not have to worry about. Arujau got a MD with his brains but should have been able to score more with his strength. Hoping for a better and cleaner evening.