Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[Tcl123]

If you look at it, they kept 1-8, 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5 intact,  They also kept 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, and 4-13 intact, as well as 8-9 and 7-10.  

All they did was swap us and Air Force to help attendance in Manchester.  I'm surprised they didn't also swap Ohio State and Michigan Tech, but I suppose they wanted to throw a bone to Denver for being #1.

I think they always give #1 the 16 seed, as they should.

IIRC, that wasn't the case for us in 2003. We got stuck with minn state(I believe), while Wayne state was worst seeded team in the NCAA. Think I remember our coaching staff really irritated by the draw. Not completely sure tho.

[dbilmes]

According to this interview with the committee chair, we were swapped with Air Force because there were already two Eastern teams in the Providence regional.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

According to this interview with the committee chair, we were swapped with Air Force because there were already two Eastern teams in the Providence regional.

Or to put it a different way, if there was only 1 eastern team and they lost in the semis, then nobody would be there Sunday.

And toddlose, yes, we played MSU Mankato in 2003.

[ugarte]

And toddlose, yes, we played MSU MAnkato in 2003.

that weekend was fun

[jkahn]

If you look at it, they kept 1-8, 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5 intact,  They also kept 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, and 4-13 intact, as well as 8-9 and 7-10.  

All they did was swap us and Air Force to help attendance in Manchester.  I'm surprised they didn't also swap Ohio State and Michigan Tech, but I suppose they wanted to throw a bone to Denver for being #1.

I think they always give #1 the 16 seed, as they should.

IIRC, that wasn't the case for us in 2003. We got stuck with minn state(I believe), while Wayne state was worst seeded team in the NCAA. Think I remember our coaching staff really irritated by the draw. Not completely sure tho.

There were two #1 seeds from the WCHA and two #4 seeds from the WCHA, so the rule of avoiding inter-conference first round match-ups caused us to have to play a WCHA team.

[Hooking]

Statistically, how much tougher an opponent is UML than WMU?

[CU2007]

Statistically, how much tougher an opponent is UML than WMU?

One spot in the pairwise? I think WMU would have been a significantly better matchup for us (though obviously not easy). Lowell is GOOD and was really hot down the stretch.

[LGR14]

Statistically, how much tougher an opponent is UML than WMU?

One spot in the pairwise? I think WMU would have been a significantly better matchup for us (though obviously not easy). Lowell is GOOD and was really hot down the stretch.

Though I agree with this, I am much happier with a potential second round of Minnesota than I am of Harvard. Obviously have to win the first game to get to the second, but we're not here to win one game. A second round against Harvard would have been almost a sure-thing loss (they know how to play us, they have owned us this year, etc.), but at least in this region we'll be going against (hopefully) two teams that haven't been on the same ice and are more likely to underestimate the game.

Also keep in mind that 7 of WMU's 12 losses were to Duluth and Denver.

[Trotsky]

And toddlose, yes, we played MSU Mankato in 2003.

Here are all the playoff games.

[adamw]

FYI - the bracket above is not my prediction of what will happen - it's what I think should happen.  As I discuss in the article, I think the Committee will have Harvard vs. Providence in Providence.  I just don't think they should.

Just for kicks, had Wisconsin won, how do you think that would've shaken out for us?

I think Wisconsin would've been right where OSU is and nothing else would change.

[adamw]

Statistically, how much tougher an opponent is UML than WMU?

WMU is missing two of their best players, who are questionable - at best - for Saturday.  So - in that sense, Cornell had a better chance against WMU.  Lowell is real tough to play against.

[scoop85]

FYI - the bracket above is not my prediction of what will happen - it's what I think should happen.  As I discuss in the article, I think the Committee will have Harvard vs. Providence in Providence.  I just don't think they should.

Just for kicks, had Wisconsin won, how do you think that would've shaken out for us?

I think Wisconsin would've been right where OSU is and nothing else would change.

But I thought I'd seen somewhere that if Wisconsin won, we would've been 9th in PWR rather than 11th--is that not true?

[RichH]

FYI - the bracket above is not my prediction of what will happen - it's what I think should happen.  As I discuss in the article, I think the Committee will have Harvard vs. Providence in Providence.  I just don't think they should.

Just for kicks, had Wisconsin won, how do you think that would've shaken out for us?

I think Wisconsin would've been right where OSU is and nothing else would change.

But I thought I'd seen somewhere that if Wisconsin won, we would've been 9th in PWR rather than 11th--is that not true?

Not true. Using the "customize" tab on the CHN PWR page, you can change that result and see that we would have gotten 10th and more significantly, UMass-Lowell would have gotten a #1 seed (4th overall PWR) instead of Minnesota, who would have dropped past WMU to 6th.

Going into Saturday's ECAC final, from that other probability site we were watching (playoffstatus.com), we would have been 7/8 with a win OR 10/11 with a loss. Interestingly, #9 was not possible.

[RichH]

FYI - the bracket above is not my prediction of what will happen - it's what I think should happen.  As I discuss in the article, I think the Committee will have Harvard vs. Providence in Providence.  I just don't think they should.

Just for kicks, had Wisconsin won, how do you think that would've shaken out for us?

Since I just did that on CHN, let's take a look. The alternate-reality PWR with a UW win looks like this:

1  Denver    
2  Minnesota-Duluth 
3  One and Done U    
4  Mass.-Lowell    
5  Western Michigan    
6  Minnesota    
7  Boston University    
8  Union    
9  North Dakota    
10 Cornell    
11 Penn State    
12 Air Force    
13 Notre Dame    
14 Providence    
15 Ohio State    
16 Wisconsin

Michigan Tech and Wisconsin get autobids and bump out Ohio State.

Bracket integrity gives these pairings:

(1) Denver - (16) MTU
( Union - (9) NoDak

(2) UMD - (15) Wisc
(7) BU - (10) Cornell

(3) Sucks - (14) Providence
(6) Minn - (11) PSU

(4) UML - (13) Notre Dame
(5) WMU - (12) AFA

They would place the Denver bracket in Fargo, thanks to North Dakota. This would be a test to see if "protect the #1" actually would come into play as they could swap Denver and UMD.  The UMD bracket (includes Cornell) goes to Cincinnati, put Providence in Providence and UML in Manchester.  Then, as they did in our reality, they could swap 11 AFA and 12 PSU to get a more "eastern" field in Manchester, if they feel that some new Penn State fans would travel. EDIT: They would have to make that 11-12 swap to avoid the B1G matchup between Minn and PSU.  In fact, I'm wondering if they had this scenario already worked out before the end of the UW-PSU game and decided to keep the 11-12 swap.

Either way, with BU, Cornell, and Wisconsin in Cincinnati, that's (A) a huge amount of red & white and (B) very solid traveling fan-bases. Would have been fun at the bars, too.

[Hooking]

Cornell will crush Harvard if and when Harvard wins enough games to face the Big Red. That's how I figure it, and how Cornell skaters figure it. Damn the fee-splitters! Full speed ahead!