Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[upprdeck]

I can get us to 7 with denver/minn/cornell/bc/air force winning

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I can get us to 7 with denver/minn/cornell/bc/air force winning

And the lowest I came up with was 11.

[ugarte]

Penn State just lost, so that can be now factored in.

Am I insane or is this wrong? Penn State is still playing in the second OT.

EDIT: within seconds of typing this, Penn State won.

[Chris '03]

Penn State just lost, so that can be now factored in.

Am I insane or is this wrong? Penn State is still playing in the second OT.

Since Penn state just won....

[ugarte]

Feels less urgent now but Penn State's win dropped us into 10th behind North Dakota.

[RichH]

Adam has a interesting and probably true take. However with a lot of the outside-the-bubble teams getting  autobids, I found a way where we're 7 and UND is 8.

https://twitter.com/CHN_AdamWodon/status/842988159919144960

[upprdeck]

from what i tried we finish 7 in most cases as long as BC win.  you can flip wisc/psu and ndak/duluth all sorts of ways and we still end up 7th

as to whether 7th is good or bad?

[Greenberg '97]

Adam has a interesting and probably true take. However with a lot of the outside-the-bubble teams getting  autobids, I found a way where we're 7 and UND is 8.

https://twitter.com/CHN_AdamWodon/status/842988159919144960

Depends on how much value they're putting on attendance vs. bracket integrity.  Fargo is sold out.  Send Harvard's 6 fans there.

Also, I'd like to plan a weekend trip, so I'm being selfish.

[Dafatone]

I'd been maybe planning on going if we went to Fargo.  Sold out?  Then screw it, let's stay east.

[Greenberg '97]

I'd been maybe planning on going if we went to Fargo.  Sold out?  Then screw it, let's stay east.

Tickets will become available once the field is announced, either through school allotments or on the secondary market as people scramble to change plans.

Also, before someone jumps on my post above, I know Harvard won't go west as a top 4 team.

[Swampy]

I'd been maybe planning on going if we went to Fargo.  Sold out?  Then screw it, let's stay east.

Tickets will become available once the field is announced, either through school allotments or on the secondary market as people scramble to change plans.

Also, before someone jumps on my post above, I know Harvard won't go west as a top 4 team.

Yes, but if they lose tonight, will they still be a top 4 team?

[Greenberg '97]

I'd been maybe planning on going if we went to Fargo.  Sold out?  Then screw it, let's stay east.

Tickets will become available once the field is announced, either through school allotments or on the secondary market as people scramble to change plans.

Also, before someone jumps on my post above, I know Harvard won't go west as a top 4 team.

Yes, but if they lose tonight, will they still be a top 4 team?

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Yes.

[Robb]

The second paragraph suggests the CHN model's lack of updating on KRACH odds could very well be causing some havoc with their predictions.

As I allude to in our explainer article on the site, I feel like a valid argument can be made to keep KRACH as a snapshot from when the simulation starts. But I can't articulate the reason very well.

On the other hand, I do know that re-calculating KRACH on the fly after every game would be all but impossible. As it is, running 20,000 simulations takes like 4 hours. And each simulation contains a few dozen games or so. At least. If KRACH were re-calculated after each simulated game within each simulation, I think it might take a week to run.  Of course, I allow for the fact that I might be doing it wrong.

I could run fewer simulations. The whole thing seems to stabilize at around 3,000 or less. 20,000 is probably overkill. But it does allow for picking up on some outlier possibilities.

You'd also have to consider the definition of "after."  If Cornell beats Harvard at 10:07 pm, that doesn't affect just their ratings - it would affect the ratings of every other team, too.  Should that update be taken into account for 2 teams who already have a game in progress just because it won't finish until 10:13?  

I think the logical thing to do would be only to update KRACH once per day, after all results are "in."  That would drastically reduce the amount of computing required and reduce the inherent arbitrariness of deciding in which order to flip the coins.

[GBR1234]

If CU plays in Providence or Manchester, I am close enough to attend. Can someone please advise me of the best way to get tickets after the venues are announced? Should I jump right on and buy tickets from the NCAA site or try to get them through Cornell ticket office from school allotment?

[JasonN95]

I went to check out the latest blog posts on CHN and appears as though the site is down. To much traffic?