Miami vs. Cornell 12/2-3

[BearLover]

I'm not sure if Gillam's incredible play as of late is just a good thing, or if it's hiding the fact that maybe we're not playing as well as I think.

And I'm usually one of the optimists here.

Team PDO is 102.1. Definitely a bit elevated. The process needs to get better if we're going to survive the inevitable regression toward 100.

102.1 isn't terribly lucky though. I believe around 95% of teams will be within 2.25 (above or below) of 100. Another reason for optimism is the affect that injuries could be having. Inserting Kubiak and Buckles back into the lineup could help offset some of the regression that might occur

No, you're right its not super lucky, but I'm just concerned since our puck possession numbers aren't good, and likely won't get better as we play better teams.

51% CF Close, 48% overall during 5-on-5.  I assume this suggests we're an average team over the course of a small sample size.  As for who we've played, Hardvard, Yale, Q, and Dartmouth all rank highly.  So it's not like our competition has been light.  Still, we'll probably need to get at least slightly lucky to make the NCAAs.

Stats: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/#adv

[Trotsky]

Stats: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/#adv

We have finally relinquished the Height (UConn) and Weight (Duluth) crowns.

[Jim Hyla]

I'm not sure if Gillam's incredible play as of late is just a good thing, or if it's hiding the fact that maybe we're not playing as well as I think.

And I'm usually one of the optimists here.

Team PDO is 102.1. Definitely a bit elevated. The process needs to get better if we're going to survive the inevitable regression toward 100.

102.1 isn't terribly lucky though. I believe around 95% of teams will be within 2.25 (above or below) of 100. Another reason for optimism is the affect that injuries could be having. Inserting Kubiak and Buckles back into the lineup could help offset some of the regression that might occur

Indeed Schafer said that everybody who was healthy was playing. Also, I hope that McCarron didn't get hurt too badly after taking that blocked shot. When he came on the ice afterwards, he wasn't skating as well. Probably soft tissue, but those are often worse the next day.

Miami has better overall talent. Certainly, as has been mentioned, in speed, but as I've seen in other games, our passing isn't as crisp as it needs to be. Speed is also decreased when you have to change your stride to pick up a pass. Hopefully that will continue to improve with time.

[Jim Hyla]

the big thing i saw is that we have better skilled guys with the puck than the last few years, but we still lack speed to take advantage of it.   miami with their speed got into too many good spots but we managed to make plays or get a save or they hit a pipe.  4-3 us is good.  we probably maxed out our chances , miami probably should have earned a couple more.

best thing this team does is not panic when they go behind early which seems to be the theme this year.  tomorrow is bug for PWR since Miami looks much better than their record now that they have a few injured guys back and playing.

From the game notes. "Cornell is now tied with top-ranked Minnesota-Duluth for the most wins in the nation for teams that have surrendered the game's first goal (five)."

[upprdeck]

you can really judge how well we can make the NCAAs without really knowing how other teams are doing.. maybe we have been lucky.. maybe 10 teams ahead of us are playing even more over their heads? we so few other teams games its hard to know.. I saw PSU looked much better than michigan the other night on TV,  i have also seend 4-5 of the Atlantic teams play and cornell is better than all of them and those are the teams chasing us in PWR. RIT is the best team in that league and has 4-5 teams ahead of them in PWR.

A hot goalie covers up mistakes, but while Miami had more speed and created more chance that turned into more goals allowed.   there were several really good cycles by cornell.  just need a few of those to turn into goals.   the PP looks better so maybe that levels off to solid and not awful.

the key to this team is the sloppy passes leading to in zone chances by the other teams.  clean that up and we can compete.

[Jim Hyla]

To add to the "we don't fade" idea, our stats:

Code Select Expand


Goals by period 1 2 3 OT 1 Total
Cornell 6 12 13 0 31
Opponents 11 9 4 0 24


Shots by period 1 2 3 OT 1 Total
Cornell 88 105 87 2 282
Opponents 92 103 79 6 280


Our shots/period vs. opponents doesn't change much, but our goals certainly do.

[css228]

I'm not sure if Gillam's incredible play as of late is just a good thing, or if it's hiding the fact that maybe we're not playing as well as I think.

And I'm usually one of the optimists here.

Team PDO is 102.1. Definitely a bit elevated. The process needs to get better if we're going to survive the inevitable regression toward 100.

102.1 isn't terribly lucky though. I believe around 95% of teams will be within 2.25 (above or below) of 100. Another reason for optimism is the affect that injuries could be having. Inserting Kubiak and Buckles back into the lineup could help offset some of the regression that might occur

No, you're right its not super lucky, but I'm just concerned since our puck possession numbers aren't good, and likely won't get better as we play better teams.

51% CF Close, 48% overall during 5-on-5.  I assume this suggests we're an average team over the course of a small sample size.  As for who we've played, Hardvard, Yale, Q, and Dartmouth all rank highly.  So it's not like our competition has been light.  Still, we'll probably need to get at least slightly lucky to make the NCAAs.

Stats: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/#adv

Yeah unfortunately it's hard to get a breakdown of game by game. I'd disregard the close number right now since the shot attempt numbers are just so incredibly small (To illustrate that point, the results from last nights game knocked us down from 51% to 50% close, even the even strength number fell to 47% from 47.8%). Check back in on the close stats in February when the sample size is about double what it currently is. The biggest problem with using these numbers as I've said before is that an NCAA season just really isn't long enough to know true talent until around the end of the year.

But I'm just saying the number I'm looking at atm gives me cause for concern, especially because our numbers seem to be buoyed mostly by two demolitions of Colgate (31-17 close, but only 39-37 at evens. Likely score effects) and Princeton (21-13 close, 46-22 at evens). Both of those teams are around 45% which is just terrible. Add in that our game against Brown was close (18-11 close, but 27-29 at evens) and we've gotten obliterated in possession by Miami (34-50 evens, 24-31 close), QPac (25-40 evens, 14-31 close), Yale (admittedly a possible score effects candidate, since it was 23-58 at evens, but 10-8 in our favor close), and Dartmouth (34-44 evens, 33-41 close). We have played some pretty good possession teams pretty well (Harvard pretty much dead even, New Hampshire 32-41 at evens) but I wanted to point out that we've made a habit of getting points in situations where we haven't really deserved them. We can't rely on that if we want this start to last.

I'd also like to point out that while we out-attempted Merrick 45-32, we fell behind early 3-0  in that game, and only 12 total shot attempts were taken in close situations in that game, so you'd expect us to be getting those kinds of shot attempt advantages. It's times like these I wish someone tracked score adjusted corsi for college.  

Point of all this being. I have severe reservations given our demonstrated play driving abilities in our ability to compete against a team like Union, I wouldn't expect us to get more points out of Yale. At best I'm thinking we're a little over .500 in the second half. I'm not sure that is enough to put us in the NCAAs.

[Trotsky]

Speaking of falling behind, let's not do that tonight.

Code Select Expand


[u]# Opp Beh Thereafter[/u]
1 Mer 0-3 2-0
2 Drt 0-0 1-1
3 Hvd 0-2 3-2
4 Brn 0-1 4-1
5 Yal 0-0 6-3
6 Qpc 0-1 1-2
7 Prn 0-2 4-0
8 UNH 0-1 3-0
9 Cgt 0-1 3-1
0 Mia 0-2 4-1


[Chris '03]

Speaking of falling behind, let's not do that tonight.

Code Select Expand


[u]# Opp Beh Thereafter[/u]
1 Mer 0-3 2-0
2 Drt 0-0 1-1
3 Hvd 0-2 3-2
4 Brn 0-1 4-1
5 Yal 0-0 6-3
6 Qpc 0-1 1-2
7 Prn 0-2 4-0
8 UNH 0-1 3-0
9 Cgt 0-1 3-1
0 Mia 0-2 4-1


Anything else you want tonight?

[ugarte]

Speaking of falling behind, let's not do that tonight.

Code Select Expand


[u]# Opp Beh Thereafter[/u]
1 Mer 0-3 2-0
2 Drt 0-0 1-1
3 Hvd 0-2 3-2
4 Brn 0-1 4-1
5 Yal 0-0 6-3
6 Qpc 0-1 1-2
7 Prn 0-2 4-0
8 UNH 0-1 3-0
9 Cgt 0-1 3-1
0 Mia 0-2 4-1


we definitely seem to be getting better at falling behind

[ugarte]

So glad to get three NC wins in a row.