Rankings

[Hooking]

Yep. All they have to do is win out and past statistics be damned. I have a tough time applying the statistical strategies of well-paid advisors in a net-zero market to my love of Cornell Hockey.

[upprdeck]

does it really matter if the Atlantic Hockey and WHCA champs comes in 15-16 or 1-2??  either way its a 1 bid league and leaves the same number of at large bids.

the ecac has 3 team in now and i could see ST.L or maybe Quin get hot
HEast has 4 in with BC/Vermont stealing a bid
b10 has 4 with no one else
nchc 3 with St.Cl/NDak/Omaha at around .500 but not sure any of them can win the title
atlantic 1
whca 1


big games this weekend

PSU/Wisc
msu/osu

cc/stcloud
mass/prov
den/omaha
miami/nd

[KGR11]

Keep in mind St. Cloud has a losing record and at this time is not eligible for the NCAA tournament.  That provides extra cushion for Cornell.

They have two games with Colorado College, then a playoff with a higher seed.

We likely need them to get swept in that playoff.

As has been mentioned here before, it's silly just how much they get rewarded for going 2-7 against the top two teams.

If Colorado College can pull off just 1 tie, St. Cloud would need to advance past their first round to be NCAA-tournament eligible. Pretty sure we're all CC fans this weekend.

[andyw2100]

Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's.  While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

This site has us at 83%.

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

That's last week's PWR standings.

It shows an update date of today, at 8:00 AM.

I did notice that it showed Cornell 9th instead of tenth, and thought that was odd.

Checking the site again now, and refreshing, changes nothing, so I'm not sure what's going on.

Edit: This page on that site does seem to have us 10th in Pairwise, but the 83% chance of making the tournament is consistent with their other page.

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournperformprob.html

[Trotsky]

Yep. All they have to do is win out and past statistics be damned. I have a tough time applying the statistical strategies of well-paid advisors in a net-zero market to my love of Cornell Hockey.

I don't.  It still comes down  to win every game from now on and then fuck the Homecoming Queen/King/Both.

[BearLover]

Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's.  While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

The probability matrix, as I've argued before, overvalues the chances of a stronger team beating a weaker team.  For instance, look at Harvard: the model gives them a 45% chance of winning the ECAC tournament.  In a tournament with (functionally) eight teams, including two other top ten teams, one team being almost even money to win the whole thing in a game as random as hockey feels wrong.  I believe this to be true even given the 2/3 structure of the first round reducing randomness as well as the fact that Harvard is clearly one of the top teams in the country.  Cornell twice this year nearly beat Harvard; Union beat them once.  RPI beat Harvard.  If this were basketball, the probabilities in this matrix would seem much more reasonable.

[Trotsky]

FWIW, our poll rank in the last poll of February:

Code Select Expand

[color=#FF0000]2017  9[/color]
2016 18
2015 --
2014 11
2013 --
2012 13
2011 25
[color=#FF0000]2010  9[/color]
2009 11
2008 24
2007 20
[color=#FF0000]2006  8
2005  2[/color]
2004 18
[color=#FF0000]2003  2
2002  9[/color]
2001 19
2000 --

[Jim Hyla]

Polls

Code Select Expand


[b][u]USCHO.com Division I Men's Poll
February 27, 2017[/u][/b]
Team     (First) Record Points Last Poll
1 Denver        (43) 24- 6-4 990 1
[b][u]2 Harvard        ( 3) 22- 5-2 928 3[/u][/b]
3 Minnesota-Duluth( 4) 20- 5-7 924 2
4 Massachusetts-Lowell 22- 9-3 835 5
5 Minnesota 21- 9-2 788 4
[b][u]6 Union        23- 8-3 707 7[/u][/b]
7 Boston University 21-10-3 703 6
8 Western Michigan 19- 8-5 680 8
[b][u]9 Cornell        18- 6-5 587 9[/u][/b]
10 Providence 20- 9-5 532 10
11 Penn State 20- 8-2 506 11
12 Notre Dame 19-10-5 461 13
13 Ohio State 17- 9-6 393 12
14 Vermont        18-11-5 294 15
15 North Dakota 16-14-3 252 16
16 Wisconsin 18-11-1 238 19
17 Boston College 18-14-4 223 14
18 Air Force 22- 9-5 125 17
19 St. Cloud State 15-16-1 80 18
[b][u]20 St. Lawrence 16-11-7 66 20[/u][/b]
Others receiving votes: Omaha 57, Bemidji State 45, Canisius 36,
[b][u]Quinnipiac 32[/u][/b], Minnesota State 8, Michigan Tech 7, Northeastern 3.

[b][u]USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men's College Hockey Poll
February 27, 2017[/u][/b]
Team              Points (First) Last Poll Record
1 University of Denver 503 (28) 1 24-6-4
[b][u]T2 Harvard University 462 (3) 3 22-5-2[/u][/b]
T2 Univer Minnesota Duluth 462 (3) 2 20-5-7
4 UMass Lowell        386 7 22-9-3
5 University of Minnesota 380 4 21-9-2
6 Boston University 327 5 21-10-3
[b][u]7 Union College        300 8 23-8-3[/u][/b]
8 Western Michigan Univer 295 6 19-8-5
[b][u]9 Cornell University 221 9 18-6-5[/u][/b]
10 Penn State University 188 11 20-8-2
11 Providence College 183 10 20-9-5
12 University of Notre Dame141 14 19-10-5
13 Ohio State University 94 12 17-9-6
14 University of Wisconsin 39 NR 18-11-1
15 University North Dakota 33 15 16-14-3
Others receiving votes: Boston College 32, University of Vermont 16,
St. Cloud State University 10, [b][u]St. Lawrence University 4[/u][/b], United States Air Force Academy 4.

[b][u]USCHO.com Division I Women's Poll
February 27, 2017[/u][/b]
Team      (First) Record Points Last Poll
1 Wisconsin (15) 29- 2-4 150 1
2 Minnesota-Duluth 24- 5-5 134 2
[b][u]3 Clarkson 27- 4-5 118 3
4 St. Lawrence 26- 4-4 101 5[/u][/b]
5 Minnesota 25- 6-5 96 4
6 Boston College 25- 5-5 76 6
[b][u]7 Cornell        19- 7-5 59 7
8 Princeton 20- 9-3 40 8[/u][/b]
9 Robert Morris 22- 4-6 34 9
[b][u]10 Quinnipiac 21-10-6 9 10[/u][/b]
Others receiving votes: Boston University 4, Northeastern 4.

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/d-i-womens-poll/#ixzz4Zvj1dVSI





[KGR11]

Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's.  While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

The probability matrix, as I've argued before, overvalues the chances of a stronger team beating a weaker team.  For instance, look at Harvard: the model gives them a 45% chance of winning the ECAC tournament.  In a tournament with (functionally) eight teams, including two other top ten teams, one team being almost even money to win the whole thing in a game as random as hockey feels wrong.  I believe this to be true even given the 2/3 structure of the first round reducing randomness as well as the fact that Harvard is clearly one of the top teams in the country.  Cornell twice this year nearly beat Harvard; Union beat them once.  RPI beat Harvard.  If this were basketball, the probabilities in this matrix would seem much more reasonable.

I alluded to this earlier: The probability matrix isn't the one doing the overvaluing, it's KRACH. All the probability matrix is doing is taking the probabilities from KRACH and running 20,000 random iterations of the season based on those probabilities.

Even money for an 8-team tournament is 12.5%. With Harvard at 45%, they are going to win 3.6 times more than the average team. If you put them head to head, Harvard's record is 3.6-1, or 78.2%. Harvard's actual winning percentage is 79.3%. (77.3% in conference). Those are pretty close.

[Jim Hyla]

Code Select Expand


[b][u]USCHO.com Division I Men's Poll
March 06, 2017[/u][/b]
Team      (First) Record Points Last Poll
1 Denver        (48) 26- 6-4 997 1
[b][u]2 Harvard        ( 1) 22- 5-2 937 2[/u][/b]
3 Minnesota-Duluth( 1) 21- 6-7 902 3
4 Massachusetts-Lowell 22- 9-3 841 4
5 Minnesota 22-10-2 753 5
[b][u]6 Union        23- 8-3 739 6[/u][/b]
7 Western Michigan 20- 9-5 702 8
8 Boston University 21-10-3 697 7
[b][u]9 Cornell        18- 6-5 593 9[/u][/b]
10 Providence 22- 9-5 559 10
11 Penn State 21- 9-2 478 11
12 Notre Dame 19-10-5 462 12
13 Vermont        20-11-5 374 14
14 North Dakota 18-14-3 336 15
15 Ohio State 18-10-6 291 13
16 Wisconsin 19-12-1 282 16
17 Boston College 18-14-4 174 17
18 Air Force 22- 9-5 133 18
[b][u]19 St. Lawrence 16-11-7 66 20[/u][/b]
20 St. Cloud State 16-17-1 55 19
Others receiving votes: [b][u]Quinnipiac 37[/u][/b], Canisius 26, Bemidji State 22,
Omaha 18, Michigan Tech 10, Minnesota State 9, Northeastern 7.

[b][u]USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men's College Hockey Poll
March 6, 2017[/u][/b]
Team             Points  (First) Last Poll Record
1 University of Denver 509 (33) 1 26-6-4
[b][u]2 Harvard University 463 (1) T2 22-5-2[/u][/b]
3 Univer Minnesota Duluth 447 T2 21-6-7
4 UMass Lowell        389 4 22-9-3
5 University of Minnesota 353 5 22-10-2
6 Boston University 325 6 21-10-3
[b][u]7 Union College        310 7 23-8-3[/u][/b]
8 Western Michigan Univer 309 8 20-9-5
[b][u]9 Cornell University 223 9 18-6-5[/u][/b]
10 Providence College 188 11 22-9-5
11 Penn State University 182 10 21-9-2
12 University Notre Dame 134 12 19-10-5
13 University North Dakota 72 15 18-14-3
14 University of Vermont 58 NR 20-11-5
15 Ohio State University 54 13 18-10-6
Others receiving votes: University of Wisconsin 39, Boston College 15,
[b][u]St. Lawrence University 6[/u][/b], United States Air Force Academy 4.

[b][u]Men's Division I PairWise Rankings[/u][/b]

Rank Team       PWR W-L-T  Win % Win % Rank RPI RPI Rank
1 Denver        59 26-6-4 .7778 2 .6067 1
2 Minnesota-Duluth58 21-6-7 .7206 3t .5972 2
[b][u]3 Harvard        57 22-5-2 .7931 1 .5875* 3[/u][/b]
4 Western Michigan56 20-9-5 .6618 11t .5721 4
5 Minnesota 55 22-10-2 .6765 10 .5715* 5
6 Mass-Lowell 54 22-9-3 .6912 6 .5618 6
7 Boston Univer   53 21-10-3 .6618 11t .5615 7
[b][u]8 Union        52 23-8-3 .7206 3t .5590* 8[/u][/b]
9 Penn State 51 21-9-2 .6875 7 .5554* 9
[b][u]10 Cornell        49 18-6-5 .7069 5 .5519 11[/u][/b]
11t Providence 48 22-9-5 .6806 8t .5552 10
11t North Dakota 48 18-14-3 .5571 26 .5473 12
13t Wisconsin 47 19-12-1 .6094 20 .5456 13
13t Notre Dame 47 19-10-5 .6324 14 .5453 14
15 Vermont        45 20-11-5 .6250 15t .5406 15
16 Air Force 44 22-9-5 .6806 8t .5388 16
17 Ohio State 43 18-10-6 .6176 17t .5377 17
18t St. Cloud State 42 16-17-1 .4853 35 .5371 18
18t Boston College 42 18-14-4 .5556 27 .5345 19

[b][u]KRACH: Division I Men[/u][/b]

Rank Team       Rating RRWP Win % Rk W-L-T Win % Win Ratio SOS Rk SOS
1 Denver        599.1 .8453 2 26-6-4 0.7778 3.500 6 178.7
2 Minnesota-Duluth489.9 .8181 3t 21-6-7 0.7206 2.579 3 196.0
[b][u]3 Harvard        426.7 .7974 1 22-5-2 0.7931 3.833 22 118.0[/u][/b]
4 Western Michigan328.1 .7538 11t 20-9-5 0.6618 1.957 8 171.2
5 Boston Univer 297.5 .7361 11t 21-10-3 0.6618 1.957 9 155.2
6 Mass-Lowell 294.8 .7344 6 22-9-3 0.6912 2.238 12 135.1
7 Minnesota 284.1 .7275 10 22-10-2 0.6765 2.091 11 139.0
[b][u]8 Union        262.3 .7122 3t 23-8-3 0.7206 2.579 33 104.9[/u][/b]
9 Providence 257.4 .7085 8t 22-9-5 0.6806 2.130 20 123.5
[b][u]10 Cornell        253.1 .7053 5 18-6-5 0.7069 2.412 27 108.5[/u][/b]
11 Penn State 246.0 .6997 7 21-9-2 0.6875 2.200 25 114.8
12 North Dakota 231.3 .6873 26 18-14-3 0.5571 1.258 4 185.1
13 Notre Dame 227.5 .6838 14 19-10-5 0.6324 1.720 13 134.4
14 Vermont        216.1 .6733 15t 20-11-5 0.6250 1.667 15 131.5
15 Wisconsin 202.1 .6593 20 19-12-1 0.6094 1.560 16 131.4
16 Omaha        185.5 .6409 32 16-15-5 0.5139 1.057 7 175.7
17 Boston College 185.1 .6405 27 18-14-4 0.5556 1.250 10 149.0
18 St. Cloud State 173.4 .6262 35 16-17-1 0.4853 0.943 5 183.6
19 Ohio State 168.9 .6204 17t 18-10-6 0.6176 1.615 31 106.1

[b][u]USCHO.com Division I Women's Poll[/u][/b]
[b][u]March 06, 2017[/u][/b]
Team     (First) Record Points Last Poll
1 Wisconsin (15) 31- 2-4 150 1
[b][u]2 Clarkson 29- 4-5 129 3[/u][/b]
3 Minnesota-Duluth 25- 6-5 125 2
4 Boston College 27- 5-5 98 6
5 Minnesota 25- 7-5 87 5
[b][u]6 St. Lawrence 26- 5-4 84 4
7 Cornell        20- 8-5 61 7[/u][/b]
8 Robert Morris 24- 4-6 46 9
[b][u]9 Princeton 20-10-3 26 8[/u][/b]
10 Northeastern 22-12-3 17 NR
Others receiving votes: [b][u]Quinnipiac 2.[/u][/b]

[b][u]Women's National Collegiate PairWise Rankings[/u][/b]

Rank Team        PWR W-L-T Win % Win % Rank RPI RPI Rank
1 Wisconsin 35 31-2-4 .8919 2 .6670* 2
[b][u]2 Clarkson 34 29-4-5 .8289 3 .6226* 3[/u][/b]
3 Minnesota-Duluth33 25-6-5 .7639 7 .6130* 4
4 Boston College 32 27-5-5 .7973 5 .6055* 5
[b][u]5 St. Lawrence 31 26-5-4 .8000 4 .6047* 6[/u][/b]
6 Minnesota 30 25-7-5 .7432 8 .5969* 7
[b][u]7 Cornell        29 20-8-5 .6818 9 .5733* 8[/u][/b]
8 Robert Morris 28 24-4-6 .7941 6 .5586* 9
[b][u]9 Princeton 27 20-10-3 .6515 11 .5539* 10[/u][/b]

[b][u]KRACH: National Collegiate Women[/u][/b]

Rank Team       Rating RRWP  Win % Rk W-L-T Win % Win Ratio SOS Rk SOS
1 Wisconsin 1837. .9356 1 31-2-4 0.8919 8.250 2 246.8
2 Minnesota-Duluth780.5 .8644 6 25-6-5 0.7639 3.235 1 250.9
[b][u]3 Clarkson 708.0 .8535 2 29-4-5 0.8289 4.846 7 154.9[/u][/b]
4 Minnesota 579.3 .8289 7 25-7-5 0.7432 2.895 3 206.9
[b][u]5 St. Lawrence 483.6 .8043 3 26-5-4 0.8000 4.000 10 127.3[/u][/b]
6 Boston College 460.6 .7972 4 27-5-5 0.7973 3.933 11 122.8
[b][u]7 Cornell        302.0 .7289 8 20-8-5 0.6818 2.143 8 144.4
8 Princeton 207.4 .6575 10 20-10-3 0.6515 1.870 17 113.1[/u][/b]
9 Robert Morris 198.7 .6489 5 24-4-6 0.7941 3.857 33 54.20

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-women/#ixzz4aaaWdJYF









[adamw]

I alluded to this earlier: The probability matrix isn't the one doing the overvaluing, it's KRACH. All the probability matrix is doing is taking the probabilities from KRACH and running 20,000 random iterations of the season based on those probabilities.

Even money for an 8-team tournament is 12.5%. With Harvard at 45%, they are going to win 3.6 times more than the average team. If you put them head to head, Harvard's record is 3.6-1, or 78.2%. Harvard's actual winning percentage is 79.3%. (77.3% in conference). Those are pretty close.

If someone had a better way to "randomly" distribute wins in a simulation, I am all ears.

[Trotsky]

After the Friday loss, at 11 pm we're 13 in PWR.

[Dafatone]

After the Friday loss, at 11 pm we're 13 in PWR.

We were at 14 right after the game, so I'll take it.

[Beeeej]

Pending other action, the win tonight didn't budge us out of 13th in the Pairwise.

EDIT: As of 10:03pm, other action has moved us up to 12th. (Yes, I did verify our record had been updated when we were still 13th.)

[ugarte]

I don't know if we'd have to win again in Lake Placid to preserve the lead but if we win tomorrow we almost certainly flip the comparison with Providence. We're pnly .0007 behind the Friars in RPI (for that matter we're .0026 behind NoDak and .0028 behind the Irish). Losing tomorrow could certainly drop us behind Penn State, since we're only .0016 ahead.

*Edited to show end-of-night RPI.