Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests

dwakelin · March 16, 2014, 09:14:43 AM

It seems if Cornell wins tonight against Clarkson and should both Colgate and Cornell lose their semifinal games at Lake Placid
both team could very easily be eliminated. The decision not to play a consolation game could really bite the league right in the ass not
allowing one of the teams a win to secure an NCAA spot.

KGR11 · March 16, 2014, 10:17:55 AM

Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: BeeeejAs of the end of game two, we're #16 in the Pairwise. We pretty much have to win out now.

A win tomorrow and a win against #3 Union might gain us back enough breathing room to make it, but let's be on the safe side and just win the whole fucking thing.

We might not need to beat Union. This link shows our probability to make it to the ECAC semifinals, while This link show our probability of making different NCAA seeds. Our probability of losing tonight is 38% and our probability of missing the NCAA tournament is 40%. Since it's incredibly unlikely that we make the NCAA tournament AND lose tonight, doesn't that mean that our likelihood of NOT making the NCAA tournament if we lose to Union in the semis is around 2% or 3%?

This low percentage goes against my gut, but I'm not sure if it's my logic that's off or the probabilities provided by the website.

upprdeck · March 16, 2014, 11:51:02 AM

win tonight, but there will be many teams around us lose next week just like we likely will. who knows.

nyc94 · March 16, 2014, 06:29:47 PM

Hockey East games had early starts today.
Notre Dame 4 BC 2 F
Lowell 2 Vermont 1 F
UNH 5 Northeastern 4 F

Icy · March 16, 2014, 06:55:20 PM

BC loses, UNH wins

Beeeej · March 16, 2014, 06:56:59 PM

Quote from: IcyBC loses, UNH wins

...which drops us back to #17.

Anybody else getting dizzy?

Trotsky · March 16, 2014, 10:52:57 PM

The win puts us back at 16.

The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a vulture, so the line is currently at 15.

The other conference survivors are:

Big N: (11) Michigan; Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC: (3) Union, (6) Quinnipiac, (15) Colgate, (16) Cornell
HE: (7) Lowell, (

Notre Dame, (9) Providence; UNH
WCHA: (4) Ferris, (12) Mankato; Bowling Green, UAA
NCHC: (13) North Dakota; Miami, WMU, Denver

So there could be up to four additional vultures, dropping the line to 11. Two seem likely.

Jim Hyla · March 16, 2014, 11:34:33 PM

Quote from: TrotskyThe win puts us back at 16.

The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a vulture, so the line is currently at 15.

The other conference survivors are:

Big N: (11) Michigan; Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC: (3) Union, (6) Quinnipiac, (15) Colgate, (16) Cornell
HE: (7) Lowell, ( Notre Dame, (9) Providence; UNH
WCHA: (4) Ferris, (12) Mankato; Bowling Green, UAA
NCHC: (13) North Dakota; Miami, WMU, Denver

So there could be up to four additional vultures, dropping the line to 11. Two seem likely.

Umm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

Rita · March 17, 2014, 12:12:22 AM

Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: TrotskyThe win puts us back at 16.

The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a vulture, so the line is currently at 15.

The other conference survivors are:

Big N: (11) Michigan; Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC: (3) Union, (6) Quinnipiac, (15) Colgate, (16) Cornell
HE: (7) Lowell, ( Notre Dame, (9) Providence; UNH
WCHA: (4) Ferris, (12) Mankato; Bowling Green, UAA
NCHC: (13) North Dakota; Miami, WMU, Denver

So there could be up to four additional vultures, dropping the line to 11. Two seem likely.

Umm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

Yeah, 6 team "Big 6/10/12/14" conference and everyone gets to play in their conference tourney (very ACC-Lax-like, eh?). Minnesota and Wisconsin get a bye. The teams Trotsky listed play Thursday night with the winners getting the gophers and badgers.

Yeah, I know that the ECAC and almost every other conference lets everyone in, but considering they are only 6 teams and already have played each other 4 times, it seems a bit redundant.

mikek · March 17, 2014, 12:18:00 AM

Cornell can make it with a loss to Union. Need NoDak and Ferris to win their tournaments. Colgate needs to lose. New Hampshire can't win hockey east. Need Minnesota St to lose. Bit of a long shot... Even a win against Union doesn't guarantee a bid if there upsets in other leagues.

Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk W-L-T Win %
1 Minnesota 58 .6021 1 27-5-6 .7895
2 Boston College 57 .5892* 2 26-7-4 .7568
3 Union 55 .5863* 3 28-6-4 .7895
4 Ferris State 55 .5680* 4 29-9-3 .7439
5 Wisconsin 54 .5608* 5 23-11-2 .6667
6 Quinnipiac 53 .5593 7 25-9-6 .7000
7 Mass.-Lowell 52 .5608* 6 25-10-4 .6923
8 Notre Dame 51 .5542* 8 23-14-2 .6154
9 St. Cloud State 50 .5485* 9 21-10-5 .6528
10 Providence 48 .5451* 10 21-10-6 .6486
11 North Dakota 48 .5445 11 24-12-3 .6538
12 Michigan 46 .5406 12 19-13-4 .5833
13 Vermont 46 .5400 13 20-14-3 .5811
14 Northeastern 44 .5359 14 19-14-4 .5676
15 Cornell 44 .5356 15 17-10-5 .6094
16 Colgate 43 .5352 16 19-13-5 .5811
17 New Hampshire 42 .5303 18 22-18-1 .5488
18 Minnesota State 41 .5347 17 24-14-1 .6282
19 Yale 40 .5268 19 17-11-5 .5909
20 Western Michigan 40 .5257 20 20-15-5 .5625
21 Ohio State 38 .5218 21 17-14-5 .5417
22 Minnesota-Duluth 38 .5197 22 16-16-4 .5000
23 Maine 35 .5185 23 16-15-4 .5143
24 Bowling Green 35 .5172 24 19-15-6 .5500
25 Clarkson 33 .5141 26 21-17-4 .5476
26 Alaska-Anchorage 33 .5122 27 18-16-4 .5263
27 Alaska-Fairbanks 32 .5068 29 18-15-4 .5405
28 Denver 31 .5161 25 19-16-6 .5366
29 Mercyhurst 30 .5079 28 23-12-7 .6310
30 Rensselaer 29 .5048 30 15-16-6 .4865
31 Nebraska-Omaha 29 .5045 31 17-18-2 .4865
32 St. Lawrence 28 .5003 32 15-19-4 .4474
33 Lake Superior 27 .4994 33 16-19-1 .4583
34 Michigan Tech 25 .4935 34 14-19-7 .4375
35 Miami 24 .4934 35 14-21-3 .4079
36 Air Force 24 .4922 36 21-14-4 .5897
37 Michigan State 22 .4878 37 11-18-7 .4028
38 Brown 21 .4872 38 11-17-3 .4032
39 Northern Michigan 19 .4832 40 15-21-2 .4211
40 Harvard 19 .4810 41 10-17-4 .3871
41 Bentley 17 .4858 39 19-14-4 .5676
42 Dartmouth 17 .4784 42 10-20-4 .3529
43 Connecticut 16 .4776 43 18-14-4 .5556
44 Boston University 15 .4728 44 10-21-4 .3429
45 Bemidji State 14 .4704 45 10-21-7 .3553
46 Massachusetts 13 .4696 46 8-22-4 .2941
47 Robert Morris 12 .4664 47 18-18-5 .5000
48 Merrimack 12 .4601 48 8-22-3 .2879
49 Canisius 10 .4601 49 16-21-3 .4375
50 Niagara 9 .4588 50 15-20-5 .4375
51 Colorado College 8 .4537 51 7-24-6 .2703
52 Penn State 7 .4484 52 7-26-2 .2286
53 Holy Cross 6 .4465 53 14-22-3 .3974
54 RIT 5 .4449 54 12-20-5 .3919
55 Princeton 4 .4320 55 6-26-0 .1875
56 Sacred Heart 4 .4282 56 12-24-0 .3333
57 American Int'l 2 .4176 57 10-25-1 .2917
58 Alabama-Huntsville 1 .3955 58 2-35-1 .0658
59 Army 0 .3887 59 6-28-0 .1765

User-Specified Results
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Mercyhurst def. Canisius
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Robert Morris def. Niagara
•Atlantic Hockey Championship: Mercyhurst def. Robert Morris
•Big Ten Semifinal #1: Minnesota def. Ohio State
•Big Ten Semifinal #2: Wisconsin def. Michigan
•Big Ten Championship: Minnesota def. Wisconsin
•Big Ten Play-in #1: Michigan def. Penn State
•Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
•ECAC Semifinal #1: Union def. Cornell
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
•ECAC Championship: Union def. Quinnipiac
•Hockey East Semifinal #1: Mass.-Lowell def. Notre Dame
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire def. Providence
•Hockey East Championship: Mass.-Lowell def. New Hampshire
•NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Miami
•NCHC Semifinal #2: Western Michigan def. Denver
•NCHC Championship: North Dakota def. Western Michigan
•NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Miami
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Ferris State def. Alaska-Anchorage
•WCHA Semifinal #2: Bowling Green def. Minnesota State
•WCHA Championship: Ferris State def. Bowling Green

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 17, 2014, 06:10:26 AM

Bigger long shot: If Penn Sate can upset Mighigan again, we can still get in if Minnesota State wins.

Trotsky · March 17, 2014, 06:27:16 AM

Quote from: RitaUmm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

I did forget them. They help a lot since they significantly lessen the chance of a Big N vulture.

Vulture likelihoods (source):

AH: 100%
NCHA: 70%
Big N: 8%
WCHA: 32%
HE: 10% (roughly, they haven't updated yet)
ECAC: 0%

Chris '03 · March 17, 2014, 07:55:57 AM

Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: RitaUmm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

I did forget them. They help a lot since they significantly lessen the chance of a Big N vulture.

Vulture likelihoods (source):

AH: 100%
NCHA: 70%
Big N: 8%
WCHA: 32%
HE: 10% (roughly, they haven't updated yet)
ECAC: 0%

Big Ten tournament is for bragging rights, no? I didn't think they had an aq yet.

Trotsky · March 17, 2014, 11:08:03 AM

Quote from: Chris '03Big Ten tournament is for bragging rights, no? I didn't think they had an aq yet.

Really? I had no idea.

Chris '03 · March 17, 2014, 11:28:22 AM

Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: Chris '03Big Ten tournament is for bragging rights, no? I didn't think they had an aq yet.
Really? I had no idea.

Maybe not...

QuoteThe winner of the 2014 Big Ten Men's Ice Hockey Tournament will receive the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Championship.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/big10-m-hockey-tournament-13-14.html

I must be getting my lax and hockey realignment auto-qualifiers mixed up or something.

Nothing to see here... move along.