Bracketology

[Trotsky]

Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise.  Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

That way lies madness.  It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

Just win out, baby.

[adamw]

That way lies madness.  It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

I must say, that is probably not the case anymore, due to the changes in the way the Pairwise is calculated.

[RichH]

Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise.  Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

That way lies madness.  It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

Just win out, baby.

If that UMass game had been played, a tie would have us currently sitting in 10th. A loss drops us to 12th. Had we won, we're still in 6th.  Bullet dodged.

Even a tie in that BU game puts us in 4th. Winning that BU game and losing the Colgate tie moves us up to 5th, to complete a prior conversation.

[marty]

Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise.  Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.

That way lies madness.  It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.

Just win out, baby.

If that UMass game had been played, a tie would have us currently sitting in 10th. A loss drops us to 12th. Had we won, we're still in 6th.  Bullet dodged.

Even a tie in that BU game puts us in 4th. Winning that BU game and losing the Colgate tie moves us up to 5th, to complete a prior conversation.

Yes, madness.

[css228]

With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak in the country:

Woof woof.  You should know better Greg.

Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.

[Give My Regards]

Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.

"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey

Or for you young'uns:

"Luck can only get you so far."  -- Hermione Granger, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

[Trotsky]

Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work.  But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.

[Tcl123]

Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work.  But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.

There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.

[Tcl123]

If you don't believe me, come play blackjack at my house over the next few days.

[Jim Hyla]

FYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan - so have at it.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/

Adam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject.

[Trotsky]

Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work.  But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.

There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.

Thank you for proving my point.

[css228]

Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.

"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey

Or for you young'uns:

"Luck can only get you so far."  -- Hermione Granger, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

Think you're missing the point of regression. By dominating possession play, you give yourself the best chance to win because assuming neutral shooting luck the team with more shots wins. But while we know that in any single game, luck is biggest deciding factor in who wins. over the long run with neutral luck, the best team should win most of the time. A 9 game streak is not the long run.

[Trotsky]

Welp, thus far that shitshow has only cost us a slip to 8.

[billhoward]

Welp, thus far that shitshow has only cost us a slip to 8.

Helped by a zero-point weekend coming from only one game. Does anybody know if we can pick up the NSA feed from the men's locker room at Lynah? That would be must-see TV.

[Jim Hyla]

This week's edition.

Code Select Expand


This week's brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 2 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 7 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]14 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State[/u][/b]
10 Michigan vs. 8 St. Cloud State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
[b][u]9 Cornell vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell[/u][/b]

East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Providence vs. 3 Union
11 Northeastern vs. 5 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 4[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move

In: Vermont, [b][u]Colgate[/u][/b]

Out: New Hampshire, North Dakota

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/12/five-weeks-out-and-a-lot-of-moves-make-for-good-story-lines/#ixzz2t9JXDgTm