Hockey Analytics: What Does It Mean For Cornell?

[BMac]

You'd have to stick one on the puck too, right?

[KeithK]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

Could happen at some point.  But you'd need to get the entire league and players to buy into it before it could happen.  Plus develop the software to make sense of the flood of data.  It's simpler for a team to pay someone peanuts to hart games as a starting point, at least.

[Trotsky]

Could happen at some point.  But you'd need to get the entire league and players to buy into it before it could happen.  Plus develop the software to make sense of the flood of data.  It's simpler for a team to pay someone peanuts to hart games as a starting point, at least.

You only really need to convince the league office.  The players don't get a vote and why would they care either way?

I doubt the software would be a problem.  They track elk herds and ocean buoys and any number of things that are far more complicated than 40 or so objects moving slowly around a formally bounded, two-dimensional space.  And at first you really would only be tracking a limited number of states like zone and very few properties like time.  It sounds like a senior thesis; not even grad school work.

I also doubt it would be expensive.  It seems like 1990s technology, and from a data gathering and analysis perspective it's nothing compared to weather simulations or even extant game engines.

It seems really easy and really cheap.

[KeithK]

Could happen at some point.  But you'd need to get the entire league and players to buy into it before it could happen.  Plus develop the software to make sense of the flood of data.  It's simpler for a team to pay someone peanuts to hart games as a starting point, at least.

You only really need to convince the league office.  The players don't get a vote and why would they care either way?

I doubt the software would be a problem.  They track elk herds and ocean buoys and any number of things that are far more complicated than 40 or so objects moving slowly around a formally bounded, two-dimensional space.  And at first you really would only be tracking a limited number of states like zone and very few properties like time.  It sounds like a senior thesis; not even grad school work.

I also doubt it would be expensive.  It seems like 1990s technology, and from a data gathering and analysis perspective it's nothing compared to weather simulations or even extant game engines.

It seems really easy and really cheap.

I would think that anything affecting the players (adding RFIDs to their uniforms) would require player approval.  It certainly would in baseball, which is what I am most famiiar with. Why would they care?  No idea.  But players unions have made a stink about stupid things before.

I don't disagree that this wouldn't be that hard to implement.  but it would require some effort to organize and push, which mht not exist.  Particularly since there are probably some teams that aren't particuarly interested in analytics at this point. Also I can easily see a team that is interested in analytics being more willing to develop their own, admittedly inferior, data manually to avoid keep it in house and keep it as a proprietary advantage.

[profudge]

The article I referenced above discusses the RFID chip in the puck, but also says for complete analysis would need a chip in each players stick also.  

The data being recorded for the Flyers and the author on offensive zone entry is done by a volunteer currently.

[ugarte]

You only really need to convince the league office.  The players don't get a vote...

Left-wing fanatic forgets about unions. News at 11.

[Trotsky]

You only really need to convince the league office.  The players don't get a vote...

Left-wing fanatic forgets about unions. News at 11.

Actually, I was thinking right-wing fanatics would complain that RFID chips are a gateway to the World Gummint.

And anyway, I was thinking about colleges, which have slave labor.

[Swampy]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

But why not do it visually? You just have to record the entire rink. If intelligence satellites can have a resolution as fine as 10 cm, four rink-side cameras should be more than adequate.

Of course, if Redcast runs the cameras, all bets are off.

[Josh '99]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

But why not do it visually? You just have to record the entire rink. If intelligence satellites can have a resolution as fine as 10 cm, four rink-side cameras should be more than adequate.

Of course, if Redcast runs the cameras, all bets are off.

Even with the right camera setup and appropriate analysis, you'd still eventually wind up, more or less, with similar data to what you'd get through RFID tracking.  Why perform the extra steps if you don't need to?

[Robb]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

But why not do it visually? You just have to record the entire rink. If intelligence satellites can have a resolution as fine as 10 cm, four rink-side cameras should be more than adequate.

Of course, if Redcast runs the cameras, all bets are off.

Even with the right camera setup and appropriate analysis, you'd still eventually wind up, more or less, with similar data to what you'd get through RFID tracking.  Why perform the extra steps if you don't need to?

Because you wouldn't have to perform the extra steps of outfitting the players and pucks with RFID devices.  Cameras and image processing software are way cheaper, and to a large degree, already exist at the rinks.

[marty]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

E-Z Pass,  E-Z Score.

[Josh '99]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

But why not do it visually? You just have to record the entire rink. If intelligence satellites can have a resolution as fine as 10 cm, four rink-side cameras should be more than adequate.

Of course, if Redcast runs the cameras, all bets are off.

Even with the right camera setup and appropriate analysis, you'd still eventually wind up, more or less, with similar data to what you'd get through RFID tracking.  Why perform the extra steps if you don't need to?

Because you wouldn't have to perform the extra steps of outfitting the players and pucks with RFID devices.  Cameras and image processing software are way cheaper, and to a large degree, already exist at the rinks.

I don't know that the processing software is necessarily cheaper.  The NBA's system is patented and they (presumably) pay a licensing fee to use it.  Other companies also have patents and, I can tell you from firsthand experience, are actively developing technology in this area.  ESPN (i.e. Disney, known for aggressively protecting their IP), it seems to me, isn't likely to just let the NHL use their proprietary technology out of the goodness of their collective corporate heart.  (Not to say that they couldn't run into the same issues with an RFID-based solution, of course.)  There are also physical barriers to entry, albeit fairly low ones, in that the NBA's system uses dedicated cameras and implementing a similar system for hockey games would require its own cameras because of the larger field of view that needs to be covered.

[Swampy]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

But why not do it visually? You just have to record the entire rink. If intelligence satellites can have a resolution as fine as 10 cm, four rink-side cameras should be more than adequate.

Of course, if Redcast runs the cameras, all bets are off.

Even with the right camera setup and appropriate analysis, you'd still eventually wind up, more or less, with similar data to what you'd get through RFID tracking.  Why perform the extra steps if you don't need to?

Because you wouldn't have to perform the extra steps of outfitting the players and pucks with RFID devices.  Cameras and image processing software are way cheaper, and to a large degree, already exist at the rinks.

I don't know that the processing software is necessarily cheaper.  The NBA's system is patented and they (presumably) pay a licensing fee to use it.  Other companies also have patents and, I can tell you from firsthand experience, are actively developing technology in this area.  ESPN (i.e. Disney, known for aggressively protecting their IP), it seems to me, isn't likely to just let the NHL use their proprietary technology out of the goodness of their collective corporate heart.  (Not to say that they couldn't run into the same issues with an RFID-based solution, of course.)  There are also physical barriers to entry, albeit fairly low ones, in that the NBA's system uses dedicated cameras and implementing a similar system for hockey games would require its own cameras because of the larger field of view that needs to be covered.

But I see at least two advantages.

First, any individual program can implement a video solution, at least for home games. One doesn't need the agreement of the league, NC$$, etc.

Second, coaches watch film anyway. So besides possibly already having the equipment and raw material for analysis, consider the development process. Take, for example, crossing the blue line with the puck rather than dumping it in. The problem is there are all kinds of ways to cross the blue line with puck possession:
[list=1]

• By hanging at the opponent's blue line and waiting to receive a long pass, as part of team strategy.
• By checking and causing a turnaround in the neutral zone.
• By beating a man in the neutral zone.
• By breaking out as a team from its own defensive end.
• Etc.

In order to decipher this and develop software able to distinguish important differences in variants of something as deceptively simple as crossing the blue line with possession, the developer will likely want to review videos in order to see what was really going on. One might even want a professional hockey coach to distinguish different situations. In the early development stages one would almost certainly want to compare the computer-analyzed data with visual examination of game films in order to ensure that the software is picking up all the important nuances, etc.

So since the developer is going to use video anyway, this approach seems more efficient.

[Josh '99]

Interesting article on movement to detailed video analytics in ice hockey:  FiveThirtyEight article "The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era"

...
Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team's entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.

Schmidt's data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn't do with traditional box scores.  ...

Dumb question: why have people tracking and recording visually?  Why not just stick an RFID on every player, stream the whole thing to a hard drive, and use software to analyze it?

But why not do it visually? You just have to record the entire rink. If intelligence satellites can have a resolution as fine as 10 cm, four rink-side cameras should be more than adequate.

Of course, if Redcast runs the cameras, all bets are off.

Even with the right camera setup and appropriate analysis, you'd still eventually wind up, more or less, with similar data to what you'd get through RFID tracking.  Why perform the extra steps if you don't need to?

Because you wouldn't have to perform the extra steps of outfitting the players and pucks with RFID devices.  Cameras and image processing software are way cheaper, and to a large degree, already exist at the rinks.

I don't know that the processing software is necessarily cheaper.  The NBA's system is patented and they (presumably) pay a licensing fee to use it.  Other companies also have patents and, I can tell you from firsthand experience, are actively developing technology in this area.  ESPN (i.e. Disney, known for aggressively protecting their IP), it seems to me, isn't likely to just let the NHL use their proprietary technology out of the goodness of their collective corporate heart.  (Not to say that they couldn't run into the same issues with an RFID-based solution, of course.)  There are also physical barriers to entry, albeit fairly low ones, in that the NBA's system uses dedicated cameras and implementing a similar system for hockey games would require its own cameras because of the larger field of view that needs to be covered.

But I see at least two advantages.

First, any individual program can implement a video solution, at least for home games. One doesn't need the agreement of the league, NC$$, etc.

Second, coaches watch film anyway. So besides possibly already having the equipment and raw material for analysis, consider the development process. Take, for example, crossing the blue line with the puck rather than dumping it in. The problem is there are all kinds of ways to cross the blue line with puck possession:
[list=1]

• By hanging at the opponent's blue line and waiting to receive a long pass, as part of team strategy.
• By checking and causing a turnaround in the neutral zone.
• By beating a man in the neutral zone.
• By breaking out as a team from its own defensive end.
• Etc.

In order to decipher this and develop software able to distinguish important differences in variants of something as deceptively simple as crossing the blue line with possession, the developer will likely want to review videos in order to see what was really going on. One might even want a professional hockey coach to distinguish different situations. In the early development stages one would almost certainly want to compare the computer-analyzed data with visual examination of game films in order to ensure that the software is picking up all the important nuances, etc.

So since the developer is going to use video anyway, this approach seems more efficient.

That's a fair point I didn't really consider.  There are certainly added benefits to having the video that you don't get from a solely data-driven solution.

[Beeeej]

The article I referenced above discusses the RFID chip in the puck, but also says for complete analysis would need a chip in each players stick also.

Chiiiiiiiipless!
Chiiiiiiiipless!