Conference Tournaments / NCAA Bubble

[Trotsky]

Speaking of the Grey Lady USCHO, has anyone else found the speed of page loading to have gotten far slower over the last several months?  Not just during game nights (when high usage would be expected) but just generally?

[Trotsky]

There is a comment on the USCHO game thread that attendance looked to be "about one quarter of a game at Meehan."

Brown's mean attendance is listed on CHN as 1264.

That would make last night's attendance 316.

[Rita]

There is a comment on the USCHO game thread that attendance looked to be "about one quarter of a game at Meehan."

Brown's mean attendance is listed on CHN as 1264.

That would make last night's attendance 316.

316 sounds about right. Families of the players and the school bands should be good for about ~ 75/people per team.

[Trotsky]

In lieu of a real analysis by the experts, here is where we stand (approximately) on the NCAA draw.

* = still alive in their conference tourney

(7) Group I: In

I am presuming (mostly arbitrarily %) the top 7 in the PWR are in, if not formally then with overwhelming probability:

1. Quinnipiac (ECAC)
2. Minnesota (WCHA)
3. Lowell (HE) *
4. Miami (CCHA) *
5. BC (HE)
6. North Dakota (WCHA)
7. UNH (HE)

(3) Group II: In by the Law of the Excluded Middle

Two teams enter, one team leaves:

14. Union (ECAC) * or 20. Brown (ECAC) *
17. Wisconsin (WCHA) * or 25. CC (WCHA) *
--. Mercyhurst (AH) * or --. Canisius (AH) *

Those 10 teams leave 6 slots that can be populated from the following two groups:

Group III: On the Bubble

8. Notre Dame (CCHA) *
9. Yale (ECAC)
10. Denver (WCHA)
11. Mankato (WCHA)
12. Niagara (AH)
13. St. Cloud (WCHA)

Group IV: Deus ex Auto Bid

Teams outside the top 16 but still alive for an auto bid:

18. BU (HE) *
26. Ohio State (CCHA) * or 29. Michigan (CCHA) *


% Reasoning thusly: go down until you reach a team that could still really screw themselves.  Since the CCHA still has a consolation game, Notre Dame can still lose twice once, so they (the #8) are the dividing line.

[Trotsky]

Rooting interests to maximize ECAC representation (a.k.a., save Yale)

Based on the above, our rooting interests today are the following.

Very strongly prefer:

Lowell > BU
Miami > Michigan (The beast must die)
Yale > Quinnipiac

Weakly prefer:

Ohio State > Notre Dame (Knock ND down, then have OSU lose tomorrow)
CC > Wisconsin (Yale beat CC once)

Agnostic:

Canisius vs Mercyhurst



Brown > Union?  Not sure.

[jkahn]

In lieu of a real analysis by the experts, here is where we stand (approximately) on the NCAA draw.

* = still alive in their conference tourney

(7) Group I: In

I am presuming (mostly arbitrarily %) the top 7 in the PWR are in, if not formally then with overwhelming probability:

1. Quinnipiac (ECAC)
2. Minnesota (WCHA)
3. Lowell (HE) *
4. Miami (CCHA) *
5. BC (HE)
6. North Dakota (WCHA)
7. UNH (HE)

(3) Group II: In by the Law of the Excluded Middle

Two teams enter, one team leaves:

14. Union (ECAC) * or 20. Brown (ECAC) *
17. Wisconsin (WCHA) * or 25. CC (WCHA) *
--. Mercyhurst (AH) * or --. Canisius (AH) *

Those 10 teams leave 6 slots that can be populated from the following two groups:

Group III: On the Bubble

8. Notre Dame (CCHA) *
9. Yale (ECAC)
10. Denver (WCHA)
11. Mankato (WCHA)
12. Niagara (AH)
13. St. Cloud (WCHA)

Group IV: Deus ex Auto Bid

Teams outside the top 16 but still alive for an auto bid:

18. BU (HE) *
26. Ohio State (CCHA) * or 29. Michigan (CCHA) *


% Reasoning thusly: go down until you reach a team that could still really screw themselves.  Since the CCHA still has a consolation game, Notre Dame can still lose twice so they (the 7) are the dividing line.

I think your analysis is pretty much "bang on" as some Canadians I know would say.  
It's a huge possible bursting bubble for some teams.  As of now, a team could finish #12 in PWR and not make the tournament.

[jtwcornell91]

Surely people are playing with YATC?  Just because I don't have time to these days...
t

[Give My Regards]

% Reasoning thusly: go down until you reach a team that could still really screw themselves.  Since the CCHA still has a consolation game, Notre Dame can still lose twice so they (the 7) are the dividing line.

Dunno how much, if at all, this affects your analysis, but the CCHA does not have a consolation game this year (or ever again, apparently).

[kingpin248]

There is a comment on the USCHO game thread that attendance looked to be "about one quarter of a game at Meehan."

Brown's mean attendance is listed on CHN as 1264.

That would make last night's attendance 316.

316 sounds about right. Families of the players and the school bands should be good for about ~ 75/people per team.

The updated box score claims 3145 tickets were sold, as opposed to 3462 for the semifinals last year, and 3351 in 2010-11. Based on the sound in the building and the few shots of the seats, I'd think the actual number of people in the building was somewhere in the triple digits.

[Jim Hyla]

There is a comment on the USCHO game thread that attendance looked to be "about one quarter of a game at Meehan."

Brown's mean attendance is listed on CHN as 1264.

That would make last night's attendance 316.

316 sounds about right. Families of the players and the school bands should be good for about ~ 75/people per team.

The updated box score claims 3145 tickets were sold, as opposed to 3462 for the semifinals last year, and 3351 in 2010-11. Based on the sound in the building and the few shots of the seats, I'd think the actual number of people in the building was somewhere in the triple digits.

So maybe it's just the ECAC site that doesn't want to tell the "attendance". They still say 0.:-O

[Rita]

Surely people are playing with YATC?  Just because I don't have time to these days...
t

It isn't as much fun this year .

[marty]

If Brown wins they are given a place in Providence because they are the host there.  (Why isn't Providence the host?)  Jason Moy has had QPac in Providence in his bracketology.

Would a Brown autobid for winning today force QPac to New Hampshire and BC to Providence?

[ugarte]

(Why isn't Providence the host?)  

I think the school has to submit a sponsoring bid.

[Rita]

One potential bid stealer is eliminated. Norte Dame (who is in position for a possible at large bid) has beaten Ohio State.

On a positive note, ND wore "normal colored" uniforms: white jerseys, blue pants, gold trim. Not neon green eyesores.

[Jim Hyla]

In case anyone's interested, CCHA is on FCS Pacific as well as Detroit. At least in TWCNY.