2012 ECAC Playoff Permutations

[Give My Regards]

Once again, it's time for the ECAC Playoff Permutation Spectacular, that
annual monument to -- well, obfuscation, probably.  As the league's final
weekend approaches, we know that Union and Cornell will be the top two seeds
in some order, and that Princeton, Rensselaer, and Brown will be on the road
for the first weekend of the playoffs.  Beyond that, things get wonderfully
murky.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?ecac.cgi

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two (or three) of the
     season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Clarkson wins the
     head-to-head tiebreaker against St. Lawrence with a 2-0 record; however,
     in a three-way tie involving those two and Harvard, Clarkson would
     actually be seeded lower than St. Lawrence.  This is one of those
     exceedingly rare instances in which a season sweep still isn't enough to
     guarantee a tiebreaker win in all cases.


For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how things look:

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up first place with at least a tie against Cornell.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to second if Cornell sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Cornell.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes second if they do not beat Union.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Union.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points will guarantee the Raiders third place.
     BEST CASE:  Third.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to seventh with two losses if Quinnipiac and St.
     Lawrence sweep, Harvard beats Clarkson, and Clarkson does not lose to
     Dartmouth.  This would set up either a three-way tie for fifth involving
     Colgate, St. Lawrence, and Harvard or a four-way tie for fourth involving
     those teams and Clarkson.  In both cases, the tiebreakers would put
     Colgate seventh.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; loses to Harvard; could win or lose against
     Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes fourth place if they get three points this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to third with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish eighth if they get swept, St. Lawrence and Yale
     both win twice, and Quinnipiac beats Brown.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard; could win or lose against Colgate,
     Quinnipiac, St. Lawrence, and Yale.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees fourth by beating Clarkson and not losing to
     St. Lawrence.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches third with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth wins twice, Yale
     gets at least three points, and Quinnipiac beats Brown.  This would set
     up a three-way tie for seventh involving Harvard, Dartmouth, and St.
     Lawrence, with the tiebreakers putting Harvard ninth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Colgate, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac; loses to St.
     Lawrence; could win or lose against Yale and Dartmouth.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins would wrap up sixth place.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to third if they sweep, Colgate and Clarkson both lose
     twice, and Harvard loses to St. Lawrence.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth wins twice
     and St. Lawrence beats Harvard.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard and St. Lawrence; could win or lose
     against Colgate, Clarkson, Yale, and Dartmouth.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Would climb to third if they win twice, Yale also sweeps,
     Colgate loses twice, and Clarkson beats Harvard and loses to Dartmouth.
     This would set up a four-way tie for third among St. Lawrence, Harvard,
     Colgate, and Yale, with St. Lawrence winning the tiebreaker.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if they lose twice and Yale does not.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Princeton; loses to
     Dartmouth; could win or lose against Colgate, Clarkson, and Yale.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes seventh with a pair of wins.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches fourth with two wins if Colgate gets at least one
     point, Clarkson gets swept, and St. Lawrence beats Harvard and does not
     beat Dartmouth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to ninth with two losses if Dartmouth gets at least
     three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and Princeton; loses to Colgate; could win
     or lose against Clarkson, Harvard, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins would give the Big Green eighth place.
     BEST CASE:  Takes fifth with a sweep if Harvard loses twice, Yale and
     Quinnipiac tie, and they both lose their other game.  This would set up a
     four-way tie for fifth among Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, Harvard, and
     Quinnipiac, with Dartmouth winning the tiebreaker.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eleventh with a pair of losses if Rensselaer wins
     twice and Princeton gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence, Princeton, and Brown; loses to Yale;
     could win or lose against Harvard, Quinnipiac, and Rensselaer.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would guarantee tenth place by beating Brown.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes ninth with two wins if Dartmouth gets no more than
     one point.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice and Rensselaer gets
     at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; loses to St. Lawrence, Yale, and
     Dartmouth; could win or lose against Brown.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up eleventh place with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to ninth with two wins if Dartmouth loses twice and
     Princeton gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they get swept and Brown does not.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown; loses to Princeton; could win or lose against
     Dartmouth.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth place without help.
     BEST CASE:  Gets tenth place with a sweep if Rensselaer does not win
     twice.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Dartmouth and Rensselaer; could win or lose
     against Princeton.

[Give My Regards]

And here's the short version of all that:


Possible ECAC tournament seedings:

Union          1-2
Cornell        1-2
Colgate        3-7
Clarkson       3-8
Harvard        3-9
Quinnipiac     3-9
St. Lawrence   3-9
Yale           4-9
Dartmouth      5-11
Princeton      9-12
Rensselaer     9-12
Brown          10-12

[Jim Hyla]

WOW, very impressive.::rock:: Now I'm assuming you'll stay up and do this again Sat. night. No partying first.::drunk::

[Trotsky]

Great job; thank you.

[French Rage]

WOW, very impressive.::rock:: Now I'm assuming you'll stay up and do this again Sat. night. No partying first.::drunk::

Couldn't you just look at the final standings Saturday night?

[Jim Hyla]

WOW, very impressive.::rock:: Now I'm assuming you'll stay up and do this again Sat. night. No partying first.::drunk::

Couldn't you just look at the final standings Saturday night?

Stupid me, how about meaning Friday.

[KeithK]

With this post I finally realize who "Give My Regards" is.  Great job as ever, Bill.

[css228]

Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.

[RichH]

With this post I finally realize who "Give My Regards" is.  Great job as ever, Bill.

My thoughts exactly. Both points.

[Give My Regards]

Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.

*grumble* Right you are.  Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.

And thanks to all who waded through that!

[Robb]

Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.

*grumble* Right you are.  Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.

And thanks to all who waded through that!

I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second.  There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.

[jtn27]

Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.

*grumble* Right you are.  Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.

And thanks to all who waded through that!

I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second.  There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.

The other ways we could beat Union but still finish second are:
1. We lose to RPI, Union beats or ties Colgate.
2. We tie RPI, Union beats Colgate
I think that's it. Also, if we beat Union, and Colgate also beats Union we take first no matter what we do against RPI. Looks we're Colgate fans this weekend.

[marty]

Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.

*grumble* Right you are.  Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.

And thanks to all who waded through that!

I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second.  There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), though so your list is still not exhaustive exhausting .

FYP::bugeye::

[Trotsky]

With this post I finally realize who "Give My Regards" is.

Me too.  Great to hear from the Mouse that Roared again!  

[Trotsky]

Just to add a note. Cornell cannot finish higher than second if they tie Union. That game has to result in a win or any final outcome will either be behind Union or lost of a tiebreaker because head to head each team will have two points and Union will end up with more league wins.

*grumble* Right you are.  Cornell's worst case is now fixed in the original post.

And thanks to all who waded through that!

I noticed it, too, but figured that you were just giving one example of how Cornell could finish second.  There are other ways for us to finish 2nd too, even if we beat Union (heaven forbid), so your list is still not exhaustive.

The other ways we could beat Union but still finish second are:
1. We lose to RPI, Union beats or ties Colgate.
2. We tie RPI, Union beats Colgate
I think that's it. Also, if we beat Union, and Colgate also beats Union we take first no matter what we do against RPI. Looks we're Colgate fans this weekend.

The exhaustive/ing way to finish first is:

Beat Union AND (Beat RPI OR (Tie RPI AND (Colgate ties Union OR Colgate beats Union)) OR (Lose to RPI AND Colgate beats Union))