PWR Pedagogery

[jkahn]

So the Beanpot results alone moved us from #10 to #13 in PWR, with not only BC but Michigan St. and CC moving ahead of us.  If it weren't purely (or poorly) mathematical, I think flakey would be a good descriptor of the way PWR acts.

[Trotsky]

So the Beanpot results alone moved us from #10 to #13 in PWR, with not only BC but Michigan St. and CC moving ahead of us.  If it weren't purely (or poorly) mathematical, I think flakey would be a good descriptor of the way PWR acts.

"Sensitive" is the preferred term. ;-)

[Robb]

I won't do a complete update today, but many good things happened for us last night!

1.  We won.
2.  UMD lost - to MTU!  Eeek.  This dropped them from 6th into a tie with us for 8th.
3.  FSU tied, which is not as good as a loss, but every little bit helps.
4.  UMass forgot to show up vs. BC and got smacked down hard in PWR for it.  We don't want BC to do TOO well, but this was great for us.
5.  MSU lost, 2-0 to UAF, AND Union snuck by Clarkson, so we really improved up our position vs. MSU.  (this game just got over, and isn't included in the numbers I'm seeing yet, but it wll help).
6.  UNH lost, so that helped firm up that comparison

A win for us + bad results for 5 teams near us = up to 9th today! (tied for 8th, but we lose the comparison to UMD by .0006 in RPI)

Edit: now that the MSU/UAF game is included, it somehow cost UMD some other comparison - not tracking closely enough to know which one.  They still have us by .0006 in RPI, but we're a comparison ahead.  Of course, that leaves us tied with CC at 8th, but they're beating us in RPI by .008 (ours went up .0029 with the win last night), so it will take a several more wins to take the CC comparison even if they don't improve theirs any more.

[andyw2100]

...AND Union snuck by Clarkson, so we really...

Buried a little humor in there, huh? Nice!

[Robb]

Ummmm....yeah.  Remember all that progress we made on Friday?  Good thing, because it helped partially offset Saturday's...well, I won't say disaster.

The two biggies were our loss, and possibly just as importantly later on, SLU's loss.  That's not what hurts us today, because our TUC record doesn't count yet anyway, but I'd been hoping that our TUC record would help us in the future.  Without SLU as a TUC (they dropped to 28th), it won't.

Without further ado:



1.   Miami: you can't untoast bread.  See last week's screed.

2.   Denver – toast.

3.   Wisconsin – toast.

4.   SCSU – I'm going to go ahead and call this one for SCSU.  Our "theoretical maximum" RPI at the end of the regular season (we win out and our opponents' and their opponents' records stay the same) is down to .5655, and SCSU is sitting at .5663.  Sure, we could win out and they could tank, but...

5.   BSU – their RPI is .5549, so they are dangerously close to clinching this one.  I'm going to hold off calling it for one more week

6.   BC – did not get the memo that they're supposed to be losing.  This one is still quite conceivably in play, thanks to our COp record.  Even if SLU doesn't end up as a TUC, winning out should be good enough to catch them in RPI, and if SLU does become a TUC, we have a decent chance of catching them in TUC.    

7.      CC - either SLU has to become a TUC OR NoDak has to go better than 1-1 against them, thanks to our head-to-head loss.  This is a real shame, because CC's TUC record stinks, and we could miss a golden opportunity at a PWR win.

8.       Maine - We can still take COp with a win over Union and BU sweeping Maine, and we could take TUC (did I mention go SLU?), which is good, because it will take an 8-2-1 record from here on out to catch their .5448 RPI.

9.       UMD - still looking for a NoDak sweep on Feb 19-20 to neutralize COp, and even then it will take 9-2 from us to catch their RPI.

10.      UMass - The Q win helped our COp; still need to do well against RPI, Union, and Yale.  Can definitely keep RPI, so just keep winning!

11.      NoDak - Need CC to sweep and we need to keep winning.

12.      MSU - We need to keep beating RPI and Clarkson, and everyone else.

13.      FSU - Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  A 1-point weekend vs. NMU dropped them 7 spots and puts them easily within striking distance.

14.      UVM - All categories are very tight.  Still big BU and UHN fans the last 2 weekends in February.

15.      Cornell - damn you, Princeton.

16.      UNH - gotta beat Dartmouth and RPI, and keep our RPI up.

17.      Yale - very tight.  watch the ECAC standings and our remaining H2H game.

18.      Union - again an ECAC standings battle.

19.      Alaska-something - I never know which AK is which, but we need to at least tie RPI to keep the COp point with these guys.  We can catch their TUC and RPI by winning.

20.      Michigan - We will have COp and can keep RPI by winning.

21.     BU - We'll keep COp at least through the end of the regular season, so just need to keep winning for RPI purposes.

22.     LSSU - need to beat Union for COp.

23.     Minnesota - go CC, and we need to beat Harvard.

24.     NMU - We're both perfect vs. our only COp, Clarkson, so we'd need to sweep Clarkson if we see them in the playoffs.  Similar TUC records, but it will take a lot for them to catch us in RPI, so this is pretty secure.

25.     Lowell - Colgate is only remaining COp, so we just need to take care of them and keep winning.

[Jim Hyla]

I'm still amazed, thanks.

[krug138]

Thanks again, keep up the good work.  I look forward to this each week now.
I know we'd love for SLU to climb back into the ranks of TUC's, but what about RPI?  If they become a TUC wouldn't it be just as good or even better if we beat them a second time?  SLU is 28th in RPI and RPI(Rensselaer) is 29th in RPI, so both are close to the top 25.  Best case would be for both teams to make it, assuming we don't lose to RPI, correct?

[Robb]

Absolutely correct.  The first time I did it, RPI was well below the line, but they're moving up fast - keep it up, RPI!

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Of course, we need to beat RPI at Lynah in a couple weeks for them to help us as a TUC.

[Robb]

Sigh.  Huge opportunity lost in OT last night.

It's time to maybe start rooting AGAINST RPI and SLU so that they don't become TUCs so we won't get to 10 games.  As of right now, if our TUC record (2-4-2, .375) counted, it would cost us three comparisons that we're currently winning: UNH, UMass, and UVM.  Add in our current 2-0-1 against RPI and SLU and we'd be at 4-4-3, .500.  UVM and UMass are also at exactly .500, so those would stay with us, but UNH is .526 (and excluding the game against them, we'd be at 3-4-3, .450, so that would still flip to them.  So our TUC record isn't a major millstone around our necks, but it isn't going to be all that helpful, either.

Our (approximate) "theoretical maximum" for RPI dropped from .5655 to .5575, so we just cannot afford any more losses until Albany if we're serious about an at-large bid.

The run down:

1-4. No change

5. BSU - okay, so we didn't have a great weekend, but at least we didn't lose to RMU.  Still clinging to a shred of hope, as their RPI fell to .5510.  Keep on losing, BSU!

6. BC - no change.  Still mostly an RPI battle.  Would be nice if Lowell remained a TUC in case our record vs. TUCs ends up counting, since BC is 1-2 against them.  However, if RPI and SLU become TUCs, then they're probably taking Lowell's place - catch 22.  We'll always have COp!

7. CC - they are dangerously close to clinching RPI against us.  They finish with the gauntlet of Minnesota (ok, maybe not a gauntlet - nice calfskin gloves, perhaps?), NoDak, and DU.  They'll lose some of those, but get an SoS boost from NoDak and DU, so I doubt their RPI will shift much.

8.  Yale - Still in play.  We still have COp, so "all" we have to do to take this comparison is flip RPI.  NO MORE LOSSES!

9.  UMD - again, flipping RPI would do it.  They have COp for now, with 2 remaining vs. NoDak.  If they get swept, we'd be tied in COp.  Their TUC is also a catchable .4412, but we simply have to show up for the Union, SLU and RPI games.  I think we will get to 10 TUC games (9 RS + at least one in the ECACs), but the only way that matters is if they get swept by NoDak AND we beat Clarkson in the ECACs.  Then we would have the COp and TUC points to outweigh their RPI advantage.

10.  UNH - COp hinges on our upcoming games with RPI and Dartmouth, and we must keep COp to keep this PWR comparison.  3 points will do it, but a split is not good enough.  And if BU/UNH meet in the HEA playoffs, go Terriers!

11.  MSU - Just going to be an RPI comparison.  Need to sweep Clarkson and RPI to keep up with their perfect COp record, but we can't flip COp to our side, so even then, we'd still have to overtake them in RPI.

12.  UVM - thin, thin marginal win on RPI right now.  They have COp, but 4 games remaining against BU and UNH.  Even if we flip COp, it won't help if UVM flips RPI, so we just need to win.  A lot.

13.  NoDak - Well, at least their upcoming games against CC don't seem so critical now since we're already losing the comparisons to both.  It will just come down to RPI, so we now want NoDak to lose a few (to hurt their own RPI) but not so many that it hurts OUR RPI.

14.  Cornell - eek.  Gotta cheer for BSU in the CHA tourney.  The silver lining would be the hilarity of 50% of the CHA getting bids.

15.  UMass - winning on RPI.  We could flip COp back to us by beating RPI and Union, but it won't matter if we can't keep RPI.

16.  FSU - Oh, how short a time we knew ye.  With only 1 win in their last 6 games... what? what's that?  They STILL have the PWR comparison over us???  Ugh.  We have to take their RPI, so they need to keep losing some more.

17.  Maine - They got swept by BU (good), but we needed a point from Yale to take COp (tied at .500 now), so that will come down to whether we do better against Princeton/SLU/Union in the playoffs than they do against UNH/BU.  That's bet I would take.  Unfortunately, it won't matter without keeping RPI, so Maine needs to lose some more.

18.  BU - their two wins vs. Maine were not enough to catch us in RPI, but juuuust barely.  We want them to go about .500 the rest of the way, beating the TUCs around us like they did with Maine, but then losing to some losers - Providence next weekend would fit the bill nicely!

19.  Alaska - only common opponent is RPI, so this must be the CCHA Alaska.  Hmmm.  Still not sure.  Anyway, need to at least tie RPI to keep COp, but (broken record) we also have to keep the RPI comparison.

20-25.  NU/Union/NMU/LSSU/UNO/Lowell - I'm lumping all of these in together because the story is the same: we either have (or are tied for) COp and are beating them in RPI.  With the exception of Union, they all just come down to RPI, since that trumps the COp comparison, no matter which way it goes.  For Union, if they beat us and take COp, then that would overcome our lead in RPI.

Looking at the bigger picture, it's interesting that so many comparisons come down to RPI only.  This is because our TUC record doesn't count right now, thanks to the rest of the ECAC sucking.  We tried our best - heck, 5 of our 7 non-conference games were against TUCs.  Hard to argue with that scheduling, but when there are only 2 other ECAC TUCs, that only gets you to 9 regular season games.  I have to think that we'll face either Yale or Union in the ECACs to get to 10, but it's not guaranteed.  I'm sort of giving up hope that RPI or SLU are going to crawl back above #25 at this point.  

Also, of those 8 TUC games we've played so far, we tied BU, split with NoDak, and tied Union, so H2H is only coming into play for 3 out of the 25 PWR comparisons for us - UNH, CC, and Yale.  So for 21 of the 24 comparisons, there's no H2H component and no TUC component, so those all come down just to RPI.  Man, I could have saved myself a lot of work if I'd put it into those terms earlier!

[Trotsky]

These run-downs are amazing, Robb (even when they're a a little depressing).  Thanks again.

[andyw2100]

These run-downs are amazing, Robb (even when they're a a little depressing).  Thanks again.

What he said!

[Robb]

Quick note from the wacky world of PWR: it won't be fun for MSU fans this morning to wake up and find that Cornell's win dropped them from #11 to #14.  We overtook their RPI to win the comparison for now, so they dropped down to 12 PWR wins, along with NoDak who wins the comparison with MSU.

The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid.  UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD.  Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16.  In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.

Lots of PWR action left this season for sure!

[krug138]

Great stuff, thanks again and keep it coming!

[ugarte]

The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid.  UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD.  Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16.  In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.

This froth may clear up a little now that UVM has dumped their #2 scorer.