PWR Pedagogery

[Trotsky]

The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid.  UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD.  Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16.  In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.

This froth may clear up a little now that UVM has dumped their #2 scorer.

From the article quoted on the Milo thread it sounds like he's only one of several problems: two other guys leaving the team and two injuries.  Never know when a team will "rally from adversity" however.

[Robb]

The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid.  UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD.  Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16.  In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.

This froth may clear up a little now that UVM has dumped their #2 scorer.

From the article quoted on the Milo thread it sounds like he's only one of several problems: two other guys leaving the team and two injuries.  Never know when a team will "rally from adversity" however.

That, and nothing short of finding out Milo was involved in, say, some sort of hazing scandal that cancels the rest of their season will take away their wins over Denver and UMD, so even if UVM keeps tanking they'll still have COp over lots of WCHA teams.  Of course, if they keep tanking, those "frothy" PWC wins will be raising them from 20th to 16th (instead of from 16th to 12th) so they'll be out of the tournament.  Those PWC wins will probably continue to haunt some teams in the tournament, though.  SCSU is a lock for the tournament, but they lose the comparison to UVM right now because of UVM's big wins.   SCSU is very close to flipping both COp and TUC with UVM, though, so that won't last unless SCSU swoons down the stretch (and when has that ever happened? )

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

My (selfish) take:  

Part of me wants Cornell to finish in the 11-14 slot in the PWR.  That way we'll stay east for a change.  Unless BC makes a mighty push, the 1 and 2 seeds will be out west.  Therefore, 7, 8, 9 and 10 will also be out west (barring same-conference matchups) and 11-14 stay east.

OTOH, if we end up 9 or 10, we get an easier opponent, someone whose RPI is much closer to our and is likely more comparable in talent to us.

What to do, What to do?

[RichH]

What to do, What to do?

Just win, baby.

[jkahn]

What to do, What to do?

Just win, baby.

Exactly what I thought when I read Jeff H.'s post. Anyway, things likely will get juggled somewhat with six WCHA teams in the mix.  And right now, for instance, BC is 6, we're 10 and NH and UVM are 11-12.  So we'd get moved east at 10 to play BC.  Of course it won't be that way at the finish, but as Al D. (not the elynah Al D.). and Rich H. say, just win, baby.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Yeah, that what I thought as I was writing it.

[Robb]

Well this is painful.

I think we can pretty much put to rest any hope that RPI or SLU will be TUCs, so RPI (the index) just became a whole lot more important.  Our max RPI is now down to about .5479, which would put us about 7th best.  I'm going to go ahead and call that we can't finish above any of the 6 who are currently better than that (also 1-6 in PWR), so the rundown starts with:

7. NoDak - we have to win out and they need to lose a few games for us to have a shot at catching their RPI.  CC series next weekend will determine who keeps the COp comparison, but it doesn't really matter, because even if CC sweeps NoDak we still have to catch NoDak's RPI to win the PWC, so I think we should actually be rooting for NoDak next weekend to help with our CC comparison, and then hope that NoDak gets swept out of the WCHA playoffs.

8.  UNH - Ugh.  The loss to Dartmouth gives them the COp for now.  To win back the PWC, we either need to take their RPI (currently .5419, so this essentially requires winning out) OR beat RPI (the school) and then win more vs. RPI and Dartmouth in the ECACs than UNH does vs. BU to take back COp.

9.  BC - We actually have the COp comparison pretty solidly, so we don't have to beat their RPI (which would require winning out) if we beat two more TUCs (Union + Union or Yale in the playoffs) and they don't beat many more TUCs.  They have 2 vs. UNH this weekend.  If BC or UNH sweeps, we have a pretty fair shot at beating the loser and will never catch the winner.  On the other hand, if they split and the cards align juuuuust right, we might still be able to take back both.

10.  MSU - can take their RPI with a 4-1-1 record or better.  If we don't do that, we can't win this PWC.  We're both perfect in our COp games vs. RPI and Clarkson, so only bad things can happen if/when we play them again.  Since we can't take the COp, TUC alone wouldn't be enough if we don't beat their RPI, so this is just an RPI comparison.

11.  UMD - Taking RPI would do it, but that will take a 5-1 or better, so essentially requires winning out.  The only other way to win is to take the TUC and COp categories.  TUC is possible, but we need 2 wins and they can't do better than about .500 in their remaining TUC games.  Unfortunately, COp is a lot tougher - we need another win vs. Clarkson.  Clarkson has clinched last place (which I predicted in the USCHO pick the standings competition - go me), so the only way we can see them in the playoffs is to get first place (take 3 or 4 MORE points than Yale gets next weekend) and Clarkson wins their first round series.

12.  FSU - Either have to take their RPI (doable with 4-1-1) or get two TUC wins, one of which must be against Yale to also take COp.

13.  Union - Jeez.  I can't believe Union is ahead of us now.  Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.  Anyway, their RPI is ahead of ours by .0001, so that's certainly catchable.  They also have the slimmest of margins in COp, and of course the H2H game(s) remaining.  This really just comes down to our H2H with them - if we beat them, we'll get the RPI boost needed to take this back while theirs will fall.

14.  Alaska - I just noticed that the logo shown on Sioux Sports's PWR list has a polar bear, so these must be the ones with the awesome exploding polar bear videos.  I guess this must be Fairbanks, then, since it's not a Seawolf.  Anyway, we need to keep RPI to win this comparison.  We can't catch their TUC even with 2 more wins, so regardless of what happens with COp (can keep by beating RPI), we'll need to beat them in RPI to win the comparison.

15.  Cornell - still holding onto an at-large bid by the skin of no tournament upsets.  Gotta be huge BSU fans in the CHA tournament.  It's a pretty safe bet that one of the top 5 WCHA teams will win (90% according to playoffstatus.com), that one of the top 4 CCHA teams will win (77%), and that Yale, Cornell or Union takes the ECAC (77%), so the only one I really worry about is HEA, where we need UNH or BC to win - per playoffstatus.com, there's a 60% chance that someone else will be HEA champion, so #15 is more likely to be on the outside looking in than it is to get an at-large bid.

16.  Maine - we theoretically could win this comparison without keeping RPI, but it would involve our getting two more TUC wins (with the win over Union giving us the COp comparison as well) AND Maine losing at least 2 more TUC games.  Not too likely, so we pretty much just have to keep RPI.

17.  CC - laid two eggs this weekend vs. Minny - one goose egg and one, um, chicken egg, I guess.  And yet, they still have a better RPI and that darn H2H win.  We have to take back RPI to overcome the H2H loss, and that will take 5-0-1 or better.

18-25.  NU/UVM/UNO/UNM/BU/UML/Minny/UMich - again, a lumped group where we just need to keep RPI to keep winning the comparisons.  The only two of note are that Minny's sweep of CC gives them the COp, which we can't get back unless we beat Harvard a couple more times AND they lose to CC/UND.  Therefore, if we lose 2 more TUC games (so that TUC counts) then they'd have us in COp and TUC, so they'd take the comparison even if we stay ahead in RPI.   Similarly, our loss to Dartmouth gives UVM the COp over us, but they have 2 remaining vs. BU.  We'd like BU to take at least 3 points there to flip COp back to us AND put TUC in our camp once we get our 2 more TUC games.

Well, that's a pretty bleak picture, I have to say.  1-7 are gone, and taking back the comparisons from 8-12 essentially require winning out (which would give us the auto-bid anyway).  #13 is Union, who we can take with H2H win(s).  Without winning out, then, 13th is about the best we can hope for in PWR, so we're clinging to an auto-bid by the skin of our teeth.  We can probably stand one more loss, but almost certainly not two.  So we don't QUITE have to win the ECAC championship to make it, but we will if we drop a game next weekend.

I can't believe THIS team (Greening, Nash, Gallagher, Scrivens) is so close to missing the NCAAs.  Considering the hopes we had upon learning that Nash and Greening were coming back...  Just too painful to think about.

OTOH, if we sweep next weekend and make it to the ECAC championship game, it's possible we could still end up with a 3 seed, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.

Let's Go Red!!!!

[jeff '84]

Thanks!

[Trotsky]

Brilliant as always.  Thanks Robb.

[krug138]

Thanks Robb
Let's go Red!

[ebilmes]

Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

[Jim Hyla]

Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

Now we are down to 20%, but the sig. stat is no (zero) chance if we lose the conf. tourney. But that assumes all teams win and lose games as expected.

[billhoward]

Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.

[Rosey]

Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.

Especially with this lineup.  What a waste of a graduating (and likely early-departure) class, followed next year by what is sure to be an ugly rebuilding season.

[Jim Hyla]

Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.

Especially with this lineup.  What a waste of a graduating (and likely early-departure) class, followed next year by what is sure to be an ugly rebuilding season.

But they said that about SU's BB from last year till this, and look at what happened there.