PWR Pedagogery

[Robb]

This weekend definitely did not hurt our PWR.  But what does the future hold?  Here are some random things I notice as perusing the comparisons.
Obviously, we just want to win out, barring some bizarre circumstance. Example: we sweep RPI in the regular season and then face them in the conference title game, where an RPI win would put them into the top 25 of RPI and make them a TUC.  It could be better for us to lose that game (PWR speaking, only, of course!) and get to count the 2-1 record against them in our TUC record, which will almost certainly be less than .667.  The same thinking does not apply to facing Yale or Quinnipiac because even if we beat them in the RS, a loss in the title game would make us 1-2 against them, so we don't want that record to count.

Speaking of TUCs, we're currently 3-3-2, with TUC games against Yale and Union remaining, which would put us at exactly 10.  Chances are that at least one game in Albany (assuming we make it) will be a TUC.  However, SLU (and our 1-0-1 record against them) is currently at #24 in RPI, so we definitely want them to keep winning to remain a TUC.  Our other TUC opponents (CC, UNH, NoDak) are all pretty solid TUCs, so those won't change.  We're unlikely to get any help with teams becoming TUCs to our benefit.  BU is just below the line at #28, but our 0-0-1 record against them won't help.  RPI has an outside shot at #31, but not too likely.

The RPI is the most critical factor, of course.  If we were to win out (which we won't - keep your shirt on), our record would improve from 12-5-3 to 25-5-3 (.675 to .803).  If our opponents and their opponents continue to win a the same rates, our RPI would then improve from .5422 all the way up to .5862, which would be good for 2nd best RPI.  This won't happen, but it's just nice to know that not all is lost, even for those comparisons that hinge on RPI (lots of them, currently).

Breaking down the comparisons:

1.   Miami: this comparison is toast.  We're tied on common opponents (COp) with none remaining, so that doesn't count.  We'd have to come close to winning out AND they'd have to tank to have a shot at catching their RPI, and we won't catch their TUC record of 0.750.

2.   Denver – they have 2 remaining vs UND, but even if they lose both, they'll still have COp and TUC, so this one is toast, too.

3.   Wisconsin – can't catch them in COp (only Yale remaining for us), not likely in RPI – toast.

4.   SCSU – We could actually catch them in Cop if they lose 2 to NoDak and we beat Brown, QU, and Union, especially if we get some bonus wins against those three in the ECAC tournament and SCSU loses to CC or NoDak in the WCHA tournament.   We can definitely catch their .5278 TUC record.  This one is not lost, but we must win our TUC games and Brown and QU, and cheer for NoDak.

5.   BSU – our only common opponent is Niagara, so our record is always going to be better than theirs (they already have a loss and 2 games remaining).  BSU will not get to 10 TUCs, so that won't count, and we didn't play head to head, so that won't count.  Therefore, this will always come down to RPI.  We'll have to go about 10-3 (assuming 2 games in Albany) to catch their .5572, which is tough but doable.  Their RPI should also be dropping a bit, as they mostly have CHA games remaining, so 9-4 could probably do it, too.

6.   UMD – They have 2 remaining vs. NoDak, and if they lose both, we'd be tied in COp, taking that point away from them.  We can catch their .5278 TUC record, but it really doesn't matter.  If they get swept by NoDak, then the comparison comes down to TUC and RPI, so whoever owns RPI will take it.  If they don't get swept by NoDak, we'll have to take TUC and RPI to win the comparison – either way, we have to catch them in RPI to take the comparison, which will take about a 9-4 record.  Still, go Sioux!!!  

7.   FSU – Well, if Bowden stays on another year... Oh, right.  Only common opponent is Yale, and we've both lost, so beating or tying Yale gives us this point.   We're both teetering on the edge of 10 TUC games and going .500 in those games, so that could easily go either way.  Beating Yale could give us both the TUC and Cop, so that game is huge (duh).  Oh, and in the meantime, Screw BU, FSU too!

8.   UMass – If we sweep our remaining TUCs and they stumble a bit, we can catch their .6429 record.  However, that's unlikely, so we'll probably have to flip both Cop and RPI to take this comparison.  Fortunately, that's pretty doable.  8-5 gets us to their current RPI, and we have common opponents remaining against QU, RPI, Union, and Yale.  Going 2-1-1 in those regular season games will nose us ahead, and then we'd need to beat any of those teams we face in the playoffs.  I'm going to put this comparison in the "control our own destiny" category.  If we win our TUC and common opponent games and don't screw up our non-TUC games, it won't much matter what they do – we'll take this comparison.  Oh, and if they could lose a lot, that would be great, too.

9.   UNH – again, their RPI is catchable with an 8-5 record, and the H2H point is huge.  We also currently have COp, but we need to at least split our remaining games with Dartmouth and RPI to keep it.   We only have 7 TUCs for this comparison (since the game against them doesn't count), so we'd need to get 3 more TUC games and go at least 2-0-1 to catch their current TUC record.  So, a very keepable  comparison, as long as we do well against Dartmouth and RPI OR our TUCs.

10.   Cornell – well, this one should be okay, as long as we don't beat ourselves...

11.   BC – They can't catch us in COp, but TUC could be dicey, so this could easily come down to RPI, which is almost exactly tied.  So we want BC to lose.  A lot.  And while I hate to see Harvard win, I'll say that I'd like to see them in the Beanpot championship.

12.   CC – they have a surprisingly bad TUC record, so that's flipable, but it could swing a lot since they have 6 remaining + playoffs.  They also have 2 remaining vs. NoDak, so we want NoDak to do better than 1-1 to take the COp (those are our only COp games with CC).  If both TUC and COp flip to us, we don't need to take RPI, which would require at least a 9-4 record, probably 10-3.  Once again - Go Sioux and CC needs to suck.

13.   MSU – Just an RPI comparison right now, which goes to them.  That's very catchable (.0042 ahead of us), though, as is their TUC record (.4688).  We're both 1.000 vs. common opponents, so we need to keep beating RPI and Clarkson to keep it that way.

14.   UVM – We're big BU and UHN fans here, as the COp can go either way.  We also need to take care of Dartmouth and Yale.  TUC is close, so we should also cheer for Northeastern over UVM if they meet in the HEA playoffs.   RPI is tight.

15.   Maine – Common opponents is close, so we need to take care of Princeton and Union and cheer for UNH and BU (2 games remaining vs. each).  We're both at .500 vs. TUCs, so that can go either way – they have 6 remaining to our 2.

16.   NoDak – TUC probably won't matter, unfortunately, since they won't catch our record, but I doubt we'll get 4 more TUC games.   If they get a point off of CC (2 games remaining), then they'll take the COp, making it all come down to RPI, where theirs will be going up due to the strength of the WCHA.  So, go CC and we need UND to lose enough to keep their RPI down (while beating SCSU to help us with that one).

17.   Yale – Well, H2H is obviously huge, so gotta win that game.  We have so many common opponents remaining that that could go either way.  They only have non-Cornell TUCs, so they're not likely to get to 10 games, which is a shame because we should have a better TUC record.   This will likely come down to a standings battle – if we stay ahead of them in the standings, we'll have done well enough in our remaining games to keep this comparison.

18.   Union – Just as with Yale, it's an ECAC standings battle.  Stay ahead of them in the standings, win the PWR comparison.

19.   UML – TUC could go either way (both at .500), so we need to keep the COp by beating Colgate and Princeton and hope they lose to BU.

20.   Michigan – We will keep the COp comparison, as we're .833 to their .333.  Our only remaining COp is RPI so even if (perish the thought) we lose 3 more games to RPI, we'd still have the comparison at .417 to .333.  TUC could go either way, both at .500.

21.   LSSU – Only COp is Union, and we both tied them, so need to beat Union to solidify this comparison.  They will definitely get to 10 TUC games, which will help as they are only .188.

22.   Minnesota – tied in COp, and they have 2 remaining vs. CC, so here's a case where we want CC to win some games.

23.   Northeastern – They can definitely win back the COp, with 3 remaining vs. BU and 2 vs. UNH.  We probably actually want them to beat UNH (to help our comparison with UNH) and lose all 3 to BU.  We're in good shape on TUCs once we get to 10.

24.   SLU – We are huge SLU fans the rest of the way.  We need them to stay a TUC for so many comparisons!   They could take back COp, but not if we keep winning, too – again, just watch the ECAC standings to know how this is going.

25.   Notre Dame – They have the COp and will keep it due to their better performance vs. BU and the virtue of the fact that they tied UND in a single game while we split – they only have 1 game pulling them back down toward .500 while we have 2.  Even if we beat Colgate 3 more times this year, we can't catch them in COp.  We should keep a higher RPI and our TUC is slightly ahead, so we are likely to keep this comparison – just a shame that the COps are keeping it so close.

So, to summarize our rooting interests:

Cornell
SLU over anybody but us
Miami, Denver, and Wisconsin over everyone, since we can't catch them anyway
NoDak over SCSU
NoDak over UMD
Anybody over FSU
Anybody over UMass
Anybody over BC
Anybody over MSU
BU and UNH  over UVM and Maine
Non-TUCs vs. Nodak
BU over UML
Anybody over Michigan
Anybody over LSSU
CC over Minnesota
Northeastern over UNH
BU over Northeastern
Anybody over Notre Dame

CC and NoDak is the complicated one.  If UND sweeps, they'll have the COp against us.  If CC sweeps, they'll have the COp against us.  And if neither sweeps, they'll BOTH have the COp against us.  Maybe their ice will just melt and they'll cancel the series.

[ebilmes]

Thank you, thank you, for doing this.

As always, winning is key, but it's fun to look at the details. We've moved up around 9 spots in PWR since the Florida tournament; let's keep the momentum going.

[jeff '84]

Wow. Thank you.

[Rita]

Quite the treatise! :-O. Thank you for the national picture of "who to root for".

[Jim Hyla]

Agree, wow. This was something to wake up to.::cheer::

[andyw2100]

Very nicely done. Thanks!

[Trotsky]

Excellent stuff! ::banana::

How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?

[Robb]

Excellent stuff! ::banana::

How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?

Actually not that badly.  We just need BC's RPI to go down, and a win over Harvard probably won't change BC's RPI very much anyway.

[krug138]

Fantastic stuff, thanks for posting the PWR analysis.

[KeithK]

So Robb, you know that you have to provide weekly updates to this for the next six weeks, right? :-P

[Robb]

So Robb, you know that you have to provide weekly updates to this for the next six weeks, right? :-P

Definitely.  I can't always bring myself to stay up to watch the games anyway, so I have to get my hockey fix Sunday mornings analyzing the results.  

[billhoward]

7.   FSU – Well, if Bowden stays on another year... Oh, right.  Only common opponent is Yale, and we've both lost, so beating or tying Yale gives us this point.   We're both teetering on the edge of 10 TUC games and going .500 in those games, so that could easily go either way.  Beating Yale could give us both the TUC and Cop, so that game is huge (duh).  Oh, and in the meantime, Screw BU, FSU too!

You jest, sir. But there are two FSUs playing hockey. This does not appear to be Ferris State. I'm not sure how this FSU prononuces ice hockey but let's not go there. They even have a hip-hop Noles hockey website and stream games for $7 a pop.

[clear]

[Robb]

Excellent stuff! ::banana::

How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?

Actually not that badly.  We just need BC's RPI to go down, and a win over Harvard probably won't change BC's RPI very much anyway.

Well, the Beanpot dropped our RPI by a whopping .0001.  Unfortunately, it did improve BC's RPI enough to take back the comparison with us for now.  So Harvard's loss didn't hurt us that much, but BC's win did.

We still need to root hard against BC - they need to lose and lose and lose some more.

Edit: also just noticed that the Union/Clarkson game on Friday is big.  If Union doesn't win, Michigan State will take back the COp point from Union and flip the comparison, putting them ahead of us and BC (disregarding other effects of that game and other results Friday night, of course).  So, go U!

[ugarte]

They even have a hip-hop Noles hockey website and stream games for $7 a pop.

If she's on the team, and that's the uniform, I like their business model.

[KeithK]

They even have a hip-hop Noles hockey website and stream games for $7 a pop.

If she's on the team, and that's the uniform, I like their business model.

I'd go to the games.