Lacrosse bracketology

[Josh '99]

#1 Duke (16-1) vs. Loyola (7-6)
#8 Cornell (11-3) vs. Ohio State (10-5)

#5 Hopkins (8-5) vs. Hofstra (10-5)
#4 North Carolina (8-5) vs. Navy (9-5)

#3 Syracuse (12-2) vs. Canisius (10-5)
#6 Notre Dame (13-2) vs. Colgate (11-5)

#7 Maryland (9-5) vs. Denver (10-6)
#2 Virginia (12-3) vs. UMBC (12-3)

[RichH]

[quote Josh '99]#1 Duke (16-1) vs. Loyola (7-6)
#8 Cornell (11-3) vs. Ohio State (10-5)

#5 Hopkins (8-5) vs. Hofstra (10-5)
#4 North Carolina (8-5) vs. Navy (9-5)

#3 Syracuse (12-2) vs. Canisius (10-5)
#6 Notre Dame (13-2) vs. Colgate (11-5)

#7 Maryland (9-5) vs. Denver (10-6)
#2 Virginia (12-3) vs. UMBC (12-3)[/quote]

Three GWLL teams.  One Ivy.

[upperdeck]

Denver getting in is a shock.. one decent win all year. now you have to wonder if we get in without the AQ.. would the win over Denver have gotten us in over them?

[Hillel Hoffmann]

Duke got a terrible draw. As a reward for earning the top seed, they get a pretty dangerous Loyola team in the first round. If they win, they get the longest road trip of any seeded team to their quarterfinal venue, where (if the seeded teams hold serve) they'll play the No. 8 seed at the lower seed's home stadium.

[Scersk '97]

Georgetown fans are going to fume.  Looking at the other seeds, our position is about right, even though Hopkins seems inexplicably high IMHO.  What have they done except lose to good teams?  Best wins over UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland--way to go, guys.

Typical. ::rolleyes::

And I think you're completely right about Duke's draw, Hillel.  That immediately stuck out, compared to Syracuse's Canisius gift.

[FarEastLax]

Probably not.  Head-to-head competition matters not in the formula used by the committee.  Just ask Georgetown; I'm not a big fan of the G-men, but I can't understand how a team like Denver would get in, while the G-men will sit at home.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Scersk '97]What have they done except lose to good teams?  Best wins over UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland--way to go, guys.[/quote]

Don't you know, that's the single most important thing you can do in lacrosse! Johns Hopkins really landed a big recruiting win when they got that high-sought after AD's administrative assistant to handle their scheduling.

[Scersk '97]

I understand that it's not about head-to-head, but isn't it all about your wins vs. teams at various RPI levels?  I mean, yes, Hop has a great SOS, but their QWs?  Not so much.  (UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland's RPIs were not exactly stellar this year)

[Scersk '97]

Yeah, clearly SOS is now 75% of the final seedings; hence, Maryland's similarly inflated seeding.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Scersk '97]Yeah, clearly SOS is now 75% of the final seedings; hence, Maryland's similarly inflated seeding.[/quote]

The 3 main criteria are RPI, SoS, and QWs.

RPI is mathematically 75% SoS. SoS is of course 100% SoS. And QW factor is highly highly dependent on SoS, considering that 'quality losses' are penalized in only the tiniest bit.

So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.

[RichH]

[quote Scersk '97]Georgetown fans are going to fume.  Looking at the other seeds, our position is about right, even though Hopkins seems inexplicably high IMHO.  What have they done except lose to good teams?  Best wins over UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland--way to go, guys.

Typical. ::rolleyes::

And I think you're completely right about Duke's draw, Hillel.  That immediately stuck out, compared to Syracuse's Canisius gift.[/quote]

That's a freaking cakewalk for SU, in tournament terms.  The toughest team in the way to Foxboro will be either Notre Dame or Colgate (who beat them, but they've seen before).

Before the bracket was revealed, I knew I was rooting for 2 things: Cornell to win and Duke to lose.  Why not us?  Duke coming to Schoellkopf.  Now that would be a chance to vent.  To them and to the NCAA.  Is it too early to start a "anti-Duke signs" thread?  I'll start it with "eligibility schmeligibility"

I know zilch about tOSU other than what their record tells me.  They beat UNC 14-11 three weeks ago.  Their only losses before last week were OT losses to tournament teams: Navy, Bucknell (3OT), and UMBC (2OT).  Then they lost to Notre Dame twice in the past week: 17-12 and 9-2.  The ND goalie had 18 saves today.

If the NCAA schedules the first round games to only allow two flights, those have to be Denver-Maryland and Colgate-ND.  That means OSU has to get on a bus for Ithaca.  Also, anyone want to crank up the snow machine for May?  ::uptosomething::

That's a long trip for Colgate fans making their first tournament.  Would've been nicer to send them to the slaughter at the Carrier Dome, but Canisius (also a 1st timer) get that honor.

[Jim Hyla]

[quote DeltaOne81][quote Scersk '97]Yeah, clearly SOS is now 75% of the final seedings; hence, Maryland's similarly inflated seeding.[/quote]

The 3 main criteria are RPI, SoS, and QWs.

RPI is mathematically 75% SoS. SoS is of course 100% SoS. And QW factor is highly highly dependent on SoS, considering that 'quality losses' are penalized in only the tiniest bit.

So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.[/quote]

But then we've known that for years now. That's always been the problem with comparing JHU and SU and the 4 ACC teams to the rest. Their SOS, I prefer all caps since it's such a help to those that have it, has always given them the edge.

[Al DeFlorio]

Keep in mind Maryland beat two top five RPI teams, UNC and Virginia.  Only others to do that are Duke and Virginia.

Hopkins also has a win over Navy.  Army's slipping out of the 11-15 RPI bracket hurt us.

I'm guessing our seeding came about this way:  Duke and Syracuse were easy choices as #1 and #3.  The two other seeded teams they wanted to play in Ithaca were Notre Dame and Cornell, so one had to be #6 and the other #8 to match up with Duke and Syracuse.  I'm not sure why ND got #6 over us, unless they didn't want two central NY teams in the same quarterfinal game.  ND edged Cornell in RPI and quality win/loss points (at least based on laf's calculations on laxpower) but Cornell's strength of schedule was much higher (16 vs. 23).  Maybe the NCAA did the quality points differently this year.  

Cornell and ND were ahead of Hopkins in both RPI and quality points (again, using laf's numbers for the latter) but Hopkins had stronger schedule.  So Hop got a big push from schedule over ND and Cornell, but we didn't get the same push from SOS in the comparison with Notre Dame.  Ah, the mysteries of life...and NCAA lax seeding.

[Edit:  Or, maybe it was simple.  To get Virginia, UNC, Hopkins, and Maryland playing the quarters in Annapolis, Hopkins and Maryland had to be #5 and #7 to match up with #2 and #4.  Hop beat Maryland head-to-head and had higher RPI, SOS, and quality win points, so they got #5.]

Well, step one is to get past an Ohio State team that beat UNC and Colgate.

[RichH]

[quote DeltaOne81]So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.[/quote]

And our two esteemed independent friends are pretty much guaranteed a seeded slot, provided they can stay above .500 after piecing together whatever sweet schedule they please.  I have no doubt that Syracuse would've been seeded in 2007 had they finished over .500. As it was, they had a losing record, and were out.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote RichH][quote DeltaOne81]So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.[/quote]

And our two esteemed independent friends are pretty much guaranteed a seeded slot, provided they can stay above .500 after piecing together whatever sweet schedule they please.  I have no doubt that Syracuse would've been seeded in 2007 had they won one more game. As it was, they had a losing record, and were out.[/quote]
Syracuse would have needed two more wins last year (record was 5-8) but, otherwise, you're probably right.