Lacrosse bracketology

[Al DeFlorio]

Some really interesting analysis in this bracketology thread at laxpower: http://network.laxpower.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=31477

As I recall, the three ranking lists linked to in laf's initial post use calculations very consistent with those provided to the tournament committee by the NCAA.

[FarEastLax]

It looks like we have a solid chance of not only getting in, but also being a top-10 seed.  So we might be looking at a first-round playoff game at home.  And if we win that, wouldn't we also be at home for the second round, since one of the QF sites is Ithaca?

I wonder how our Friday game at Hobart plays into all of this.  Would a loss make a difference?

Thanks to the Darts, our string of Ivy League championships (shared or outright) continues...

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote FarEastLax]I wonder how our Friday game at Hobart plays into all of this.  Would a loss make a difference?
[/quote]
I think we'll need a win to get a seed and a home game in the first round.  And, yes, I'd expect they'd set up the brackets so that a first-round win would put Cornell in Ithaca for the quarterfinals--maybe against Syracuse.::uhoh::

Hobart has been moving up the RPI charts of late such that, if things stay as they are, the Hobart game will give us a slight boost in strength-of-schedule, with Hobart replacing Binghamton as the tenth and last of the ten teams counted by the NCAA in determining SOS.  Hobart's players will likely be foaming at the mouth after the recent Division III announcement.  It will likely be a tough game Friday night.  Video available here  http://www.pennatlantic.com/main.php  for $5.50.

[scoop85]

Hobart's been playing well of late, and given the demotion announcement, I think this will be a very tough game.

[FarEastLax]

As that thread has evolved over the past few days, another potential scenario is surfacing: assuming that we win the Friday game at Hobart (not going to be easy), we would get a #5 seed and open at home against Colgate.  If we win that game, we would take on the winner of Carolina vs. UMBC--also in Ithaca.  

The NCAA has all kinds of things that need to be factored into the first round pairings.  Teams cannot be forced to take more than a certain number of flights (would that include connections on the same trip? ::innocent:; attendance should be maximized; if you're a host team, you get to play at home should you get that far; etc.  Some of these might work in our favor this year.  

All of this is speculation right now, but having an outside shot at facing Carolina again in 2008--this time at home--is very interesting.

[Al DeFlorio]

Posted by the NCAA this morning: http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2008MLArpi1.html?

Cornell's "quality win/loss" point score is also reasonably strong.  A win Friday night could get the Red a 5-8 seed.  As of 4/29, Cornell's losses are to two 1-5 RPI teams and an 11-15 team.  Best wins over three 11-15 RPI teams, one 16-20, and two 26-30.

[ugarte]

If Loyola beats JHU, does that knock Hopkins out of the tournament?

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote ugarte]If Loyola beats JHU, does that knock Hopkins out of the tournament?[/quote]
Don't think so.  Might knock 'em out of a top eight seed, though.  Hop will still have a high RPI and SOS.

[Chris '03]

[quote Al DeFlorio][quote ugarte]If Loyola beats JHU, does that knock Hopkins out of the tournament?[/quote]
Don't think so.  Might knock 'em out of a top eight seed, though.  Hop will still have a high RPI and SOS.[/quote]

Right. You only need to be .500 to make it and Hop is 7-5 with one to play and strong SOS (which counts for 35% straight up plus is factored heavily into QW). The crazy thing about Hop and 'Cuse is that they can schedule 10 top flight teams and 3-5 crummy teams and skate into the tourney if they win enough tough games to be .500.

The fact that SOS is based on top 10 toughest games and teams don't have nearly a standard number of games is absurd. And don't get me started on the ACC love-in. At the very least Duke shouldn't have HALF it's SOS numbers based on playing MD,NC,UVa,NC,UVa. Is it too hard to only count unique opponents?

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote Chris '03]The fact that SOS is based on top 10 toughest games and teams don't have nearly a standard number of games is absurd. And don't get me started on the ACC love-in. At the very least Duke shouldn't have HALF it's SOS numbers based on playing MD,NC,UVa,NC,UVa. Is it too hard to only count unique opponents?[/quote]
I think they may have reduced the weighting of SOS in the formula, but the NCAA seems to keep that stuff a mystery.  Seems to me if they count all games in RPI and quality win/loss points they should count 'em all in SOS.

The ACC tournament is simply preposterous.  Four teams play a regular-season round-robin and then a four-team tournament to determine a league winner that doesn't get an automatic bid to the NCAAs.  For what purpose other than to boost their rankings in the selection/seeding criteria?

[CM cWo 44]

I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote CM cWo 44]I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.[/quote]
If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head.  If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it.  Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way.  Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule.  If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion.  It ain't over 'til it's over.

[CM cWo 44]

[quote Al DeFlorio][quote CM cWo 44]I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.[/quote]
If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head.  If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it.  Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way.  Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule.  If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion.  It ain't over 'til it's over.[/quote]

Yes, I know the automatic bid scenarios. I just don't see why lax is the only Ivy sport that uses a regular season tiebreaker to determine its NCAA Championships entrant.

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote CM cWo 44][quote Al DeFlorio][quote CM cWo 44]I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.[/quote]
If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head.  If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it.  Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way.  Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule.  If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion.  It ain't over 'til it's over.[/quote]

Yes, I know the automatic bid scenarios. I just don't see why lax is the only Ivy sport that uses a regular season tiebreaker to determine its NCAA Championships entrant.[/quote]
Sorry, I read your post incorrectly.  

It may be a timing issue.  With Princeton and Brown playing Saturday in the season finale and the selection being done Sunday, when would they have the playoff?  The lacrosse season now starts in the middle of winter in order to be finished in time for the three-weekend tournament.  Might really have to squeeze things to finish the season early enough "just in case" there's a tie for the championship and the need for a playoff.

[Killer]

[quote Al DeFlorio][quote CM cWo 44][quote Al DeFlorio][quote CM cWo 44]I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.[/quote]
If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head.  If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it.  Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way.  Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule.  If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion.  It ain't over 'til it's over.[/quote]

Yes, I know the automatic bid scenarios. I just don't see why lax is the only Ivy sport that uses a regular season tiebreaker to determine its NCAA Championships entrant.[/quote]
Sorry, I read your post incorrectly.  

It may be a timing issue.  With Princeton and Brown playing Saturday in the season finale and the selection being done Sunday, when would they have the playoff?  The lacrosse season now starts in the middle of winter in order to be finished in time for the three-weekend tournament.  Might really have to squeeze things to finish the season early enough "just in case" there's a tie for the championship and the need for a playoff.[/quote]

So clearly we need Brown and Princeton to fight to the death...and tie.