The Rest of the ECAC Year, Updated 3/1

[lynah80]

Next weekend will be very challenging for Cornell.  It looks like they will need at least 2 points to stay in fourth place.  

One possibility is below.  Winners for each game are in bold.  For ties, both teams are bold.  The visiting team is first.

Friday

CLG PRN    
COR QUN
CLK UNI
SLU RPI
YLE HVD      
BRN DRT


Saturday

COR PRN
SLU UNI
CLK RPI
BRN HVD   
YLE DRT

Sunday
CLG QUN


Then the standings on February 24 will look like this:

29 CLK 13 - 4 - 3
28 PRN 14 - 6 - 0  
24 QUN 10 - 6 - 4
23 COR 11 - 8 - 1
23 HVD 10 - 7 - 3
23 YLE  9  - 6 - 5
23 UNI  9  - 6 - 5
18 CLG  7 - 9 - 4
13 DRT  5 - 12 - 3
13 RPI  5 - 12 - 3
12 SLU  5 - 13 - 2
11 BRN  4 - 13 - 3


Although Cornell would be in a 4-way tie for fourth, their last 2 games are at Lynah, which will help a lot.

[daredevilcu]

I like it, but why not go for the five-way tie?  Have Colgate tie with Quinnipiac on Sunday!

Except for that whole Princeton being 1 point out of first and Clarkson not sweeping... I sure hope that doesn't end up being the case.  Here's my favorite what-if so far.  Using the same method lynah80 did...

Friday

CLG PRN
COR QUN
CLK UNI
SLU RPI
YLE HVD
BRN DRT


Saturday

COR PRN
SLU UNI
CLK RPI
BRN HVD
YLE DRT

Sunday
CLG QUN

Standings with those results would be...

1.  30 Clarkson
2.  25 Princeton
3.  24 Quinnipiac
    24 Cornell
    24 Harvard
6.  22 Union
    22 Colgate
    22 Yale
9.  13 Dartmouth
    13 Rensselaer
    12 St. Lawrence
    11 Brown

Now, I haven't figured in the tiebreakers yet, but I will get to that later when I'm a little less tired.  What I do know is those results will guarantee Clarkson the Cleary Cup by the end of the weekend... therefore, and it almost pains me to say this, GO CORNELL.  If you guys sweep and Colgate beats Princeton, Clarkson can wrap it up with a sweep of their own.  Plus if you guys can wrap up a first-round bye, I won't have to worry about facing you guys until Albany, hockey gods willing.

[lynah80]

USCHO has a different view of things than I did in my previous post.  See:

http://www.uscho.com/news/college-hockey/id,15285/ThisWeekinECACHockeyFeb212008.html

Their predictions are summarized below.  Winners for each game are in bold. For ties, both teams are bold. The visiting team is first.

Friday

CLG PRN
COR QUN
CLK UNI
SLU RPI
YLE HVD
BRN DRT


Saturday

COR PRN
SLU UNI
CLK RPI
BRN HVD
YLE DRT

Sunday
CLG QUN


With these results, the standings on February 24 will look like this:

30 CLK 14 - 4 - 2
28 PRN 14 - 6 - 0
24 HVD 11 - 7 - 2
24 QUN 10 - 6 - 4
22 YLE 9 - 7 - 4
22 UNI 9 - 7 - 4
21 COR 10 - 9 - 1
20 CLG 8 - 8 - 4
13 DRT 5 - 12 - 3
13 RPI 5 - 12 - 3
12 SLU 5 - 13 - 2
11 BRN 4 - 13 - 3

Let's see who's expectations turn out to be more accurate on Sunday.

[Josh '99]

[quote lynah80]With these results, the standings on February 24 will look like this:

30 CLK 14 - 4 - 2
28 PRN 14 - 6 - 0
24 HVD 11 - 7 - 2
24 QUN 10 - 6 - 4
22 YLE 9 - 7 - 4
22 UNI 9 - 7 - 4
21 COR 10 - 9 - 1
20 CLG 8 - 8 - 4
13 DRT 5 - 12 - 3
13 RPI 5 - 12 - 3
12 SLU 5 - 13 - 2
11 BRN 4 - 13 - 3

Let's see who's expectations turn out to be more accurate on Sunday.[/quote]The distance we can drop with a zero-point road weekend highlights how important these games are.  Anywhere between 3 and 8 is possible, and it's really a wide open race for those spots.

[Jim Hyla]

Bump, redid it after tonight.

[Trotsky]

A scenario to win the RS with no ties and as few upsets as I could manage:

Ya Da
Bn Ha
Cr Pn *
Ck RP **
SL Un
Cg Qn **

Un Ya
Qn Sl
RP Bn
Ha Cg
Da Cr
Pn Ck *

Un Bn
Qn Ck *
RP Ya
Ha Cr
Da Cg
Pn SL **

* Slight upset
** Big upset

Final standings:

29 Cornell
28 Princeton
27 Clarkson
27 Union
26 Harvard
26 Quinnipiac

[BCrespi]

From the look of your standings, Q would not have to lose to Gate for us to win the league, thus eliminating one of the big upsets,

[Scersk '97]

[quote Trotsky]
Final standings:

29 Cornell
28 Princeton
27 Clarkson
27 Union
26 Harvard
26 Quinnipiac[/quote]

Which would be a new (dubious?) record for lowest points to garner the 1st seed in the playoffs.

[Chris '03]

And a way for Cornell to lose the Cleary on the last night of the season and finish 5th... I haven't played around enough to see if H and C could meet winner take all or not. I doubt it can happen.

Ya Da
Bn Ha
Cr Pn *
Ck RP TIE
SL Un
Cg Qn TIE

Un Ya
Qn Sl
RP Bn
Ha Cg
Da Cr
Pn Ck *

Un Bn
Qn Ck *
RP Ya
Ha Cr
Da Cg
Pn SL **

* Slight upset
** Big upset

Final standings:

28 Clarkson
28 Princeton
28 Harvard
27 Union
27 Cornell
27 Quinnipiac

EDIT: Changing only the Clk/RPI result to an RPI win and this is the final finish:
Princeton
Harvard
Union
Cornell
Quinnipiac
Clarkson

Has Cornell ever finished a season looking up at both Princeton and Union?

[Beeeej]

[quote Chris '03]Has Cornell ever finished a season looking up at both Princeton and Union?[/quote]

No.  Cornell has only finished below Union once, in 1994 - 8th & 6th respectively - and Princeton finished 9th that year.  Even when we finished 11th in 1993, Union was 12th.

[Avash]

[quote Scersk '97][quote Trotsky]
Final standings:

29 Cornell
28 Princeton
27 Clarkson
27 Union
26 Harvard
26 Quinnipiac[/quote]

Which would be a new (dubious?) record for lowest points to garner the 1st seed in the playoffs.[/quote]

Cornell and Harvard finished tied for first with 29 points in 1973 -- the only ECAC season where no team reached 30 points.

[Scersk '97]

[quote Avash][quote Scersk '97][quote Trotsky]
Final standings:

29 Cornell
28 Princeton
27 Clarkson
27 Union
26 Harvard
26 Quinnipiac[/quote]

Which would be a new (dubious?) record for lowest points to garner the 1st seed in the playoffs.[/quote]

Cornell and Harvard finished tied for first with 29 points in 1973 -- the only ECAC season where no team reached 30 points.[/quote]

I suppose I should have limited my comment, but that was "pre-modern," or before 1985, so each team played an unbalanced in-league schedule of between 10 (Army) (!) and 22 games.  Both Harvard and Cornell played 18 that season.  (Army's half-season was pretty normal, but what happened to Yale?  12 games in-league and 10 out.  What... an extended Canada trip?)

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote Scersk '97]
I suppose I should have limited my comment, but that was "pre-modern," or before 1985, so each team played an unbalanced in-league schedule of between 10 (Army) (!) and 22 games.  Both Harvard and Cornell played 18 that season.  (Army's half-season was pretty normal, but what happened to Yale?  12 games in-league and 10 out.  What... an extended Canada trip?)[/quote]
The Yale players were busy clearing dinosaurs off the ice.

[lynah80]

Last night, Princeton had Jubinville, Wilson and MacIntyre on their first line.  They have a combined total of 30 goals and 83 points this year.  Mike will obviously try to get Scali, Fontas and Mugford on the ice with them, but given that the game is away, he will probably have to do that on the fly rather than after whistles.  Another possible approach to shutting down the Princeton first line would be to go with 7 or more defensemen.  

MacIntyre has missed a fair amount of ice time recently.  Does any one know why?  When he is not on the ice, Kramer (8-7-15, a freshman) usually takes his place.    

I think one weakness that Princeton has is goaltending.  Kalemba's numbers are mediocre (.908 save%, 2.63 GAA).  He was pulled in the loss at Union on Feb 1 2008, after he gave up 4 goals during the first 2 periods.  I think having Mike Kennedy back on the ice is a huge plus for the Big Red; it gives them two big scoring lines rather than just one.  

Cornell skated very hard against Quinnipiac last night and coming back with another big game tonight will not be easy.  I don't know how fresh Princeton will be.  The game summaries suggest that they really out skated Colgate, rather than out muscled them.  Princeton had 6 breakaways; there were also a number of other Colgate defensive breakdowns.  A total of 16 minor penalties were called, which is high, but not excessive.   I was surprised that Dekanich gave up 5 goals, but I think his defense just couldn't keep up with the Princeton offense.

I think it will take a lot of very strong defense and a few opportunistic goals to beat Princeton.  I doubt Mike Schafer needs any advice from me.

Go Big Red.

[daredevilcu]

[quote lynah80]Next weekend will be very challenging for Cornell.  It looks like they will need at least 2 points to stay in fourth place.  

One possibility is below.  Winners for each game are in bold.  For ties, both teams are bold.  The visiting team is first.

Friday

CLG PRN    
COR QUN
CLK UNI
SLU RPI
YLE HVD      
BRN DRT

[/quote]

Nice job on those picks, lynah80.  The two you missed were pretty tough to call anyway, and the four that you got right were arguably even harder.