And now the Leo Tolstoy version:
Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish. For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:
THIS WEEK: The team's games this week, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Quinnipiac would win
the tiebreaker against Dartmouth based on either head-to-head points or
league wins; however, in a three-way tie involving those two and
Cornell, Quinnipiac would actually be seeded lower than Dartmouth. If a
listed tiebreaker result depends on more than just those two teams being
tied, it is marked with an asterisk:
Quinnipiac could win or lose* against Dartmouth
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
such as in tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3. Comparison of points against top four teams.
4. Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5. Goal differential head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against top four teams.
7. Goal differential against top eight teams.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEK: At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches first with one point against Dartmouth.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Drops to second with two regulation losses if Dartmouth
also gets at least two points against Princeton.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; could win or lose* against Dartmouth.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEK: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Finishes second with four points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Would take first with a sweep in regulation if Quinnipiac
gets no more than one point against Harvard.
WORST CASE: Falls to third with a pair of losses in regulation if
Cornell gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; could win* or lose against Quinnipiac.
Cornell:
THIS WEEK: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: One point will give the Big Red third place.
BEST CASE: Climbs up to second with two regulation wins if Dartmouth
gets no more than three points.
WORST CASE: Would finish fourth if they are swept in regulation and
Princeton wins in regulation twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Quinnipiac, Dartmouth, and Princeton.
Princeton:
THIS WEEK: At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Locks up fourth with a win over Harvard.
BEST CASE: Finishes third with a regulation sweep if Cornell does not
get any points.
WORST CASE: Ends up sixth with two regulation losses if Harvard gets a
point against Quinnipiac and Union gets at least five points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; could win or lose against Harvard and
Union.
Harvard:
THIS WEEK: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Would clinch fifth with two regulation wins.
BEST CASE: Rises to fourth with a regulation sweep if Princeton does
not beat Dartmouth in regulation.
WORST CASE: Drops to seventh with a pair of regulation losses if Union
gets at least two points and Colgate wins twice in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate and Clarkson; could win or lose against
Princeton and Union.
Union:
THIS WEEK: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth with two points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with two regulation wins if Harvard beats
Princeton in regulation and neither Harvard nor Princeton gets more than
one point in their other game.
WORST CASE: Finishes seventh if they get swept in regulation and
(there's probably a better way to say this) whoever gets two or more
points in the Colgate-Clarkson game wins their other game in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; loses to Clarkson; could win or lose
against Princeton and Harvard.
Colgate:
THIS WEEK: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Would finish seventh by beating Clarkson in regulation.
BEST CASE: Gets fifth with a regulation sweep if Harvard loses twice in
regulation and Union gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth if they lose to Clarkson in regulation and
Clarkson gets at least one point against Cornell.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Harvard, Union, and Clarkson.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEK: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up seventh by beating Colgate in regulation and
getting at least one point against Cornell.
BEST CASE: Would finish sixth if they win twice in regulation and Union
gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Finishes tenth if they get swept in regulation and St.
Lawrence and Rensselaer both win a pair in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union, Colgate, and Yale; loses to Harvard, St.
Lawrence, and Rensselaer.
Yale:
THIS WEEK: Union, Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Five points will give Yale ninth place.
BEST CASE: Takes eighth with a regulation sweep if Clarkson loses twice
in regulation.
WORST CASE: Would fall to twelfth if they lose two regulation games,
St. Lawrence gets at least two points, and Brown gets at least five
points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer and Brown; loses to Colgate and Clarkson;
could win or lose against St. Lawrence.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEK: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Finishes tenth with five points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Would get eighth with a regulation sweep if Clarkson loses
twice in regulation and Yale gets no more than four points.
WORST CASE: Ends up twelfth if they lose twice in regulation,
Rensselaer gets at least one point, and Brown gets at least four points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson, Rensselaer, and Brown; could win or lose
against Yale.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEK: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: A pair of regulation wins gives the Engineers tenth
place.
BEST CASE: Climbs to eighth with a regulation sweep if Clarkson gets
two regulation losses and St. Lawrence does not win twice in regulation.
WORST CASE: Slides to twelfth with a pair of regulation losses if Brown
gets at least one point against Union.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson; loses to Yale and St. Lawrence; could win
or lose against Brown.
Brown:
THIS WEEK: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth without help.
BEST CASE: Would finish ninth with two regulation wins if Yale loses to
Union in regulation and gets exactly one point against Rensselaer, and
St. Lawrence gets no more than two points
WORST CASE: Twelfth.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Yale and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
Rensselaer.
