2005-2006 PWR - playoffs edition!

here is the new thread. old thread is -> here [elf.elynah.com]

current rankings with .0033/.0022/.0011 bonus - 3/18/06 - after all games
note: hahvhad SUCKS is now the pink and not the crimson
Note2: clarkson NOT a TUC, niagara NOT a tuc, bemidji is due to their autobirth
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 5 26-10-3 .7051 1 .5788*
2 Minnesota 27 1 27-8-5 .7375 2 .5775*
3 Boston University 26 4 25-9-4 .7105 3 .5712
4 Michigan State 25 8 24-11-8 .6512 4 .5703
5 Harvard 24 9 21-11-2 .6471 5 .5664
6t Miami 22 2 26-8-4 .7368 6 .5620
6t North Dakota 22 11 27-15-1 .6395 7 .5602
6t Cornell 22 7 20-8-4 .6875 8 .5517
9 Michigan 20 19 21-14-5 .5875 9 .5479
10 Colorado College 19 14 24-15-2 .6098 10 .5461
11 Boston College 18 10 23-12-3 .6447 11 .5444
12t Maine 16 6 26-11-2 .6923 12 .5428
12t New Hampshire 16 16 20-12-7 .6026 13 .5405
12t Nebraska-Omaha 16 21t 20-14-6 .5750 15 .5361
15t Dartmouth 12 15 19-12-2 .6061 14 .5373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15t Denver 12 20 21-15-3 .5769 17 .5274
15t Northern Michigan 12 21t 22-16-2 .5750 21 .5233
18 St. Cloud State 11 23 22-16-4 .5714 18 .5263
19 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 28 18-16-5 .5256 19 .5244
20 Ferris State 9 29 17-15-8 .5250 20 .5235
21t Holy Cross 7 3 26-9-2 .7297 16 .5333*
21t St. Lawrence 7 25t 20-16-2 .5526 22 .5183*
23 Ohio State 6 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5114
24 Vermont 5 25t 18-14-6 .5526 25 .5076
25 Lake Superior 4 30t 15-14-7 .5139 27 .5059
26t Colgate 3 18 20-13-6 .5897 23 .5171
26t Providence 3 30t 17-16-3 .5139 26 .5067
28t Bemidji State 2 17 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4945
28t Minnesota State 2 33 17-18-4 .4872 28 .5032



current rankings with 3/2/1 bonus
nRk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 5 26-10-3 .7051 1 .5782*
2 Minnesota 27 1 27-8-5 .7375 2 .5772*
3 Boston University 26 4 25-9-4 .7105 3 .5707
4 Michigan State 25 8 24-11-8 .6512 4 .5698
5 Harvard 24 9 21-11-2 .6471 5 .5655
6t Miami 22 2 26-8-4 .7368 6 .5620
6t North Dakota 22 11 27-15-1 .6395 7 .5596
6t Cornell 22 7 20-8-4 .6875 8 .5516
9 Michigan 20 19 21-14-5 .5875 9 .5478
10 Colorado College 19 14 24-15-2 .6098 10 .5453
11 Boston College 18 10 23-12-3 .6447 11 .5444
12t Maine 16 6 26-11-2 .6923 12 .5428
12t New Hampshire 16 16 20-12-7 .6026 13 .5403
12t Nebraska-Omaha 16 21t 20-14-6 .5750 15 .5360
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15t Dartmouth 12 15 19-12-2 .6061 14 .5373
15t Denver 12 20 21-15-3 .5769 17 .5274
15t Northern Michigan 12 21t 22-16-2 .5750 21 .5233
18 St. Cloud State 11 23 22-16-4 .5714 18 .5263
19 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 28 18-16-5 .5256 19 .5241
20 Ferris State 9 29 17-15-8 .5250 20 .5235
21t Holy Cross 7 3 26-9-2 .7297 16 .5330*
21t St. Lawrence 7 25t 20-16-2 .5526 22 .5180*
23 Ohio State 6 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5111
24 Vermont 5 25t 18-14-6 .5526 25 .5075
25 Lake Superior 4 30t 15-14-7 .5139 27 .5059
26t Colgate 3 18 20-13-6 .5897 23 .5171
26t Providence 3 30t 17-16-3 .5139 26 .5067
28t Bemidji State 2 17 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4945
28t Minnesota State 2 33 17-18-4 .4872 28 .5028

Links:
uscho pwr [www.uscho.com]
sioux sports pwr [www.siouxsports.com]
uscho krach [www.uscho.com]
usa today poll [www.uscho.com]
uscho poll [www.uscho.com]
ecac possibilities script for playoffs [slack.net]
build your own pairwise [" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">slack.net]

 

___________________________
LGR!!!!!!!!!!
jy3 '00

Edited 25 time(s). Last edit at 03/18/2006 11:43PM by jy3.

just playing around with the build your own pwr thing. if we had beaten michigan state both games, we would be in 2nd place. I used all the default settings, just changed the score of that game to MS 2 COR 3

wow... that's nipping is in the ass...

If they win out, what are the chances of them finishing in the 6-3 range? If they sweep the first round and split in Albany, what are the chances? I know it will probably depend on who the opponents are, but I'm assuming they will have two of Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, and SLU.

Ok, completely honest question here, which requires that preface because otherwise it could come across as some type of flaming:

Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?

Personally, I'll pay attention to bands and seeds and regionals and opponents, and opponents' opponents in two situations -- if we start to fall towards borderline at-large, or if we start to rise to the top 4.

Otherwise, in a word, whatever. We'll play where we're sent, and there's no "better" or "worse" regional or set of opponents. If we want to make noise come March and (knock on wood) April, we'll have to beat good teams; that's not rocket science, obviously, but it makes all the PWR machinations seem like a waste of time. After all, who's to say that going out to Minnesota last year to play UM on their home ice wasn't the best possible scenario, taking all the pressure off the Big Red and nearly vaulting them to a Frozen Four?

All that being said, I'm glad we have so many folks around here willing to put the time in to figure out countless combinations and permutations. It's fun reading

[/semi-rant]

Because look what happened last year.

calgARI '07
If they win out, what are the chances of them finishing in the 6-3 range? If they sweep the first round and split in Albany, what are the chances? I know it will probably depend on who the opponents are, but I'm assuming they will have two of Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, and SLU.

PM me and I'll tell ya

Sorry, Ari. Ya made it too easy.

Anyway, we currently lose to all the teams above us, and UND. Basically, in all those cases, winning RPI is about the only way for us to flip it.

Running it through JTW's script, using the mostly likely "win out scenario", I'm adding two wins over Union, one over Colgate and one over Dmouth. Would raise our RPI to .5568 and bring us to 6th.

Throwing in a few more Union, Colgate, and Dartmouth wins before then couldn't hurt either. But we would need some loses by the other teams. Luckily, with 3 or 4 WCHA and at least two CCHA teams in close competition, some loses are guaranteed.

There's one exception, which is that we could win the Miami comparison on Common Opponents. That could be helped by Miami playing and losing to MSU (plus that would help our RPI more). Also an over .500 record against Clarkson, SLU, or RPI would help us there too.


All in all, the guys just gotta show up and win and 3-6 (or, well, 6) is likely. Anything less, and probably not. I'm less interested in looking too deeply at what needs to happen elsewhere when we haven't shown that we can do what we need to do, but that's a quick look.

And if we end up 7, root for BU to get the opposing 2 (which looks possible if they do well and Miami and Wisc don't).

Jordan 04
there's no "better" or "worse" regional

From the fan perspective, I'll take three hours by car over half a day and who knows how many planes to get to North Dakota.

Jordan 04
We'll play where we're sent, and there's no "better" or "worse" regional or set of opponents.

There is when I live 20 minutes from Worcester and 2.5-3 hours from Albany... but many many moons from Fargo and Green Bay

Jordan 04
Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?

...

All that being said, I'm glad we have so many folks around here willing to put the time in to figure out countless combinations and permutations. It's fun reading

I think you just answered your own question.

calgARI '07
Because look what happened last year.

Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."

Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.

And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.

Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."

nyc94

Jordan 04
there's no "better" or "worse" regional

From the fan perspective, I'll take three hours by car over half a day and who knows how many planes to get to North Dakota.

Fair enough, and I'd probably feel the same way about a drive up to Albany from the city, especially considering the Grand Forks possibility this year, which isn't quite as accessible as Minneapolis. But OTOH, having to fly out to Minnesota last year on 48-72 hours notice, and then experiencing that regional, was a helluva lot of fun.

Jordan 04

calgARI '07
Because look what happened last year.

Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."

Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.

And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.

Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."

The fact that the team went unbeaten in their last 20 games, won the regular season title, post season title yet had to go out to Minnesota and play a road game on Olympic Ice. That was complete bull shit and had Cornell lost one of those games, it could have been a different story. They shouldn't go strictly by the PWR but because they do, we have to look at very closely. I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.
I'm not going to sugar coat anything about that game against Minnesota. Yeah, they took them to brink, but that after Cornell had finally adjusted to playing on bigger ice in a full road game. Had they played them on a regular sheet of ice at a neutral site, I believe Cornell would have won that game. That is how important the PWR is and that is why I and I think a lot of other people take it so seriously.

calgARI '07

Jordan 04

calgARI '07
Because look what happened last year.

Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."

Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.

And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.

Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."

The fact that the team went unbeaten in their last 20 games, won the regular season title, post season title yet had to go out to Minnesota and play a road game on Olympic Ice. That was complete bull shit and had Cornell lost one of those games, it could have been a different story. They shouldn't go strictly by the PWR but because they do, we have to look at very closely. I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.
I'm not going to sugar coat anything about that game against Minnesota. Yeah, they took them to brink, but that after Cornell had finally adjusted to playing on bigger ice in a full road game. Had they played them on a regular sheet of ice at a neutral site, I believe Cornell would have won that game. That is how important the PWR is and that is why I and I think a lot of other people take it so seriously.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the point Jordan's trying to make is why bother analyzing every possible scenario when whatever happens is going to happen and the committee's going to send Cornell wherever their criteria tells them to? It's not a question of how "fair" is it to get sent someplace as much as it is a question of "does it matter how many statistical analyses you compute when the end result will be the same." I think "it's a fun read" is probably the only real answer.

Jordan 04

Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?

Well, I can give you a list of people who care. I don't care as much as some, so I'll take a stab at an answer.

1) Cheering interest. I'm fine with saying "just let the chips fall where they may" on game nights and looking at the numbers after the fact. But knowing through the work of people here that Northern Michigan beating Bowling Green in the CCHA consolation game most likely gives us a matchup with CHA champion Alabama-Huntsville instead of a date with Denver ahead of time is pretty nifty and gives me reason to actually get into games around the nation. Ken '70 has done a pretty good job at keeping tabs on CU rooting interest so far.

2) Historical continuity and committee accountability. JTW knows what the committee did differently in '03 vs. '02, and can try to apply that knowledge to what should happen this year, and can actually have numerical proof that someone got screwed in the selection. Probably more than any other sport that I can think of. And if this knowledge can be further utilized to have an effect on the system itself, well, that's pretty remarkable that fans can have that great an impact. The KRACH movement gained momentum due to work like this.

3) It's fun and interesting to read.

4) Interest diversity. I may not be very interested in what Justin Milo does on the ice until he's physically on the hill. But that doesn't mean that others don't enjoy following the future Big Red skaters. PWR possibilities may seem like a waste of time to you, but isn't this whole damn forum...nay...this whole CU hockey obsession, in the grand scheme of things, a huge waste of time? Dryden, I sure hope not.

Section A Banshee
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the point Jordan's trying to make is why bother analyzing every possible scenario when whatever happens is going to happen and the committee's going to send Cornell wherever their criteria tells them to? It's not a question of how "fair" is it to get sent someplace as much as it is a question of "does it matter how many statistical analyses you compute when the end result will be the same." I think "it's a fun read" is probably the only real answer.

It does give you a reason to root for one team over another in the other league tournaments. Sort of like how the weekly football pool makes me care about Jets v. Texans.

calgARI '07
I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.

For the record, the GB regional is a neutral venue. It may be in Wisconsin but it is not Wisconsin's home ice nor are they host (MTU). In fact there is at least one scenario (NoDak as a 4 with BU, MN, Miami, and WI as 1's) that puts Wisconsin in Albany as a 1 seed.

I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.

Chris '03
I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.

I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?

jmh30

Chris '03
I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.

I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?

I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.

i like updating the rankings b/c i like to procrastinate

Jordan 04
Ok, completely honest question here, which requires that preface because otherwise it could come across as some type of flaming:

Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?

The same reason we watch a bunch of kids whack a piece of rubber while sliding around on ice. By pretending it's important we can willingly fool our brains into producing pleasurable neuro-chemical reactions.

It's a neat trick when you think about it.

That's why I like reading all of this stuff!

Jacob '06

jmh30

Chris '03
I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.

I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?

I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.

That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything.

Steve M

Jacob '06
I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.

That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything.

Before you go assuming some massive anti-Cornell conspiracy, are you aware that any school designated as the "host" of a regional has chosen to be involved, and has been actively involved, in the bidding process? Last I heard, Cornell didn't bid on that regional, the conference did.

Beeeej

Steve M

Jacob '06

jmh30

Chris '03
I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.

I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?

I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.

That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything.

Come on, Cornell could have applied to the NCAA to hold a tourney. That's what the ECAC did and they got it. BU regularly does this at Worcester.

I think some of us are too paranoid.

schoaff
The same reason we watch a bunch of kids whack a piece of rubber while sliding around on ice. By pretending it's important we can willingly fool our brains into producing pleasurable neuro-chemical reactions.

It's a neat trick when you think about it.

Yes. Yes, it is. Well said.

Jim Hyla

Steve M
That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything.

Come on, Cornell could have applied to the NCAA to hold a tourney. That's what the ECAC did and they got it. BU regularly does this at Worcester.

I think some of us are too paranoid.

Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.

Winnabago

Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.

Wait. You trust our athletic director (note the capitalization) with anything that needs to be organized??!? He's in charge of the people who have recently brought you such events as the Hockey ticket sprint-n-beatdown '05, and the forms-that-slipped-our-mind-so-students-have-to-pay-for-sports-now-apalooza. If they were given an NCAA hockey regional, I'm sure teams would show up to find a squash court set up instead of ice.

Now if it were wrestling, we'd be all set.

RichH

Winnabago

Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.

Wait. You trust our athletic director (note the capitalization) with anything that needs to be organized??!? He's in charge of the people who have recently brought you such events as the Hockey ticket sprint-n-beatdown '05, and the forms-that-slipped-our-mind-so-students-have-to-pay-for-sports-now-apalooza. If they were given an NCAA hockey regional, I'm sure teams would show up to find a squash court set up instead of ice.

Now if it were wrestling, we'd be all set.

There's a lot of pent-up frustration showing, Rich. I'll play along, though. Obviously Schafer understands the advantage host teams have, so why is it such a stretch, or a better question might be: why isn't this a bigger issue to him, the players, and contributing alumni? 90% of D1 doesn't even try to host, and many that do attempt it, don't go on to make the tourney. We could have an advantage, gained through off-ice work, that doesn't seem to be the big issue for those who are responsible for it. Does coach just not have that much sway?

Winnabago

RichH

Winnabago

Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.

Wait. You trust our athletic director (note the capitalization) with anything that needs to be organized??!? He's in charge of the people who have recently brought you such events as the Hockey ticket sprint-n-beatdown '05, and the forms-that-slipped-our-mind-so-students-have-to-pay-for-sports-now-apalooza. If they were given an NCAA hockey regional, I'm sure teams would show up to find a squash court set up instead of ice.

Now if it were wrestling, we'd be all set.

There's a lot of pent-up frustration showing, Rich. I'll play along, though. Obviously Schafer understands the advantage host teams have, so why is it such a stretch, or a better question might be: why isn't this a bigger issue to him, the players, and contributing alumni? 90% of D1 doesn't even try to host, and many that do attempt it, don't go on to make the tourney. We could have an advantage, gained through off-ice work, that doesn't seem to be the big issue for those who are responsible for it. Does coach just not have that much sway?

Cornell hosted an NCAA men's lacrosse regional on campus in 2004 and came out of it looking not so good. They just weren't prepared for the amount of people that showed up. I cannot speak to whether hockey would have more or less personnel issues, but I figure if Cornell athletics can't take care of business in their own backyard, they probably couldn't do it in Rochester.

Wouldn't the arena shoulder some/most of the burden on the day of the event?

plus maybe with the renovations the athletic department doesnt have the cash - the university could kick in some cash but they dont have it either

this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: [www.collegehockeynews.com]

A-19
this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: [www.collegehockeynews.com]

Who honestly believes that we deserve a #1 seed?

ebilmes

A-19
this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: [www.collegehockeynews.com]

Who honestly believes that we deserve a #1 seed?

If we won out, and other things happened that mathematically delivered unto us a #1 seed, we'd "deserve" a #1 seed.

Beeeej

There are two ways to look at the PWR at this point: root for the chips to fall so that Cornell finishes as high as possible or root for the chips to fall in such a way that lets Cornell stay east for the NCAAs. There are probably some overlaps and certainly some differences.

The easier analysis is the Cornell maximizing scenario. Here's some things to root for:
- Cornell to win out.
- Niagara to win the CHA. 2 TUC wins could come in handy.
- Canisius to win the AHA somehow some way. Again, a TUC win would help.
- Cornell to play (and beat) at least one of SLU/Clarkson/RPI. That would break the CoP tie with Miami and help flip that comparison (Cornell would still need some help in RPI)
- North Dakota to do some losing. Cornell flips that comparison if it can close a .0058 RPI gap. The CoP and TUC are split and won't change.
- Clarkson to either lose the next two, bow out with an RPI < .500 or play and be swept by Cornell next week.
- Loses by Union and RPI tonight dropped their RPI to below .4900 which should be low enough that even with series wins they don't threaten to be TUC's. Both teams bowing out wouldn't hurt though given Cornell's record against them this season.
- If Harvard plays SLU next week, it would help if they lost at least once. A 2-0 TUC boost for the Crimson would flip the comparison in Harvard's favor. The CU/HU comparison could be big in determining whether Cornell is a 2 or 3 seed down the line. Beating SLU 2-0 flips the comparison. Beating them 2-1 does not. It also goes without saying that if the two meet Cornell has to win.
- Maine to do some losing. Cornell currently leads the comparison 2-1 but is losing RPI by .0015. A loss to UMass tomorrow would be nice. A quick exit from the HEA tourney would be nicer. Could be rooting for Vermont at Alfond next week.
- Denver to stop winning! As I write this CC tied them up 6x5. Win or Tie, DU will probably flip the Cornell comparison. Cornell leads in RPI by .0006 for now.
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.
- There's obviously more to root for, but these are a few to start.

The analysis of keeping Cornell east is much more difficult. If by some miracle Cornell rises to a 1 seed, they'd be in Albany unless UND falls to a 4 and all hell breaks loose with intraconference matchups out west. Strictly by bracket integrity, presuming the WCHA teams hold 1-2 in the overall, Cornell finishing 7,8,9, or 10 is a ticket west. There are so many teams fighting for those spots right now that it's hard to nail down any formula. Someone else is welcome to run through those possibilities.

With all Fri. results now in, the DU tie flipped the Cornell comparison and Cornell is now alone in 10th:

Rk 	Team            PWR    Record    W-L-T 	        Win % 	Rk 	RPI
1 	Minnesota 	29 	1 	24-6-5 	        .7571 	1 	.5863
2 	Wisconsin 	28 	4 	22-9-3 	        .6912 	2 	.5761
3 	Miami 	        27 	2 	23-7-4 	        .7353 	4 	.5661
4t 	BU 	        25 	7 	20-9-4 	        .6667 	3 	.5661
4t 	Michigan State 	25 	10t 	20-10-8 	.6316 	5 	.5604
6 	Colorado College24 	10t 	23-13-2 	.6316 	6 	.5503
7t 	North Dakota 	21 	15 	22-14-1 	.6081 	7 	.5487
7t 	Harvard 	21 	12 	17-10-2 	.6207 	8 	.5455
7t 	Nebraska-Omaha 	21 	18 	19-12-6 	.5946 	13 	.5429
10 	Cornell 	20 	6 	17-7-4 	        .6786 	11 	.5431
11t 	Maine 	        19 	5 	23-10-2 	.6857 	9 	.5445
11t 	Denver 	        19 	17 	20-13-3 	.5972 	10 	.5439
13 	Michigan 	18 	24 	18-13-5 	.5694 	12 	.5430
14 	Boston College 	17 	9 	20-10-3 	.6515 	14 	.5367
15 	New Hampshire 	16 	20 	17-11-7 	.5857 	16 	.5319
16 	Dartmouth 	14 	19 	16-11-2 	.5862 	15 	.5331
17 	Northern Mich 	12 	21 	20-14-2 	.5833 	22 	.5224
18 	Providence 	11 	25t 	17-13-3 	.5606 	20 	.5246
19t 	Ferris State 	10 	29 	16-13-8 	.5405 	17 	.5315
19t 	St. Lawrence 	10 	22 	18-13-2 	.5758 	18 	.5281*
21 	UAF     	9 	30t 	16-14-5 	.5286 	21 	.5241
22 	Vermont 	8 	16 	18-11-6 	.6000 	24 	.5194
23 	Ohio State 	7 	37 	15-18-5 	.4605 	25 	.5187
24t 	Holy Cross 	5 	3 	22-9-2 	        .6970 	19 	.5268
24t 	Colgate 	5 	13 	18-10-6 	.6176 	23 	.5200
26t 	Sacred Heart 	4 	8 	20-10-2 	.6563 	27 	.5161
26t 	St. Cloud  	4 	23 	18-13-4 	.5714 	26 	.5173
28t 	Lake Superior 	3 	30t 	15-13-7 	.5286 	28 	.5148
28t 	Minnesota St 	3 	33 	16-16-4 	.5000 	29 	.5039
30 	Clarkson 	0 	32 	16-15-3 	.5147 	30 	.5008

Canisius?

nyc94
Canisius?

Yeah. Don't wins last year count for the PWR this year? I totally thought that game wa this year when I wrote that. I think everything else is right.

Since the AHA champ doesn't have much of an impact on Cornell so I'll root for Canisius now. Go Griffs...

Chris '03
The easier analysis is the Cornell maximizing scenario. Here's some things to root for:
- Cornell to win out.
- Niagara to win the CHA. 2 TUC wins could come in handy.
- Canisius to win the AHA somehow some way. Again, a TUC win would help.
- Cornell to play (and beat) at least one of SLU/Clarkson/RPI. That would break the CoP tie with Miami and help flip that comparison (Cornell would still need some help in RPI)
- North Dakota to do some losing. Cornell flips that comparison if it can close a .0058 RPI gap. The CoP and TUC are split and won't change.
- Clarkson to either lose the next two, bow out with an RPI < .500 or play and be swept by Cornell next week.
- Loses by Union and RPI tonight dropped their RPI to below .4900 which should be low enough that even with series wins they don't threaten to be TUC's. Both teams bowing out wouldn't hurt though given Cornell's record against them this season.
- If Harvard plays SLU next week, it would help if they lost at least once. A 2-0 TUC boost for the Crimson would flip the comparison in Harvard's favor. The CU/HU comparison could be big in determining whether Cornell is a 2 or 3 seed down the line. Beating SLU 2-0 flips the comparison. Beating them 2-1 does not. It also goes without saying that if the two meet Cornell has to win.
- Maine to do some losing. Cornell currently leads the comparison 2-1 but is losing RPI by .0015. A loss to UMass tomorrow would be nice. A quick exit from the HEA tourney would be nicer. Could be rooting for Vermont at Alfond next week.
- Denver to stop winning! As I write this CC tied them up 6x5. Win or Tie, DU will probably flip the Cornell comparison. Cornell leads in RPI by .0006 for now.
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.
- There's obviously more to root for, but these are a few to start.

I think it's time for bed.

I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus? Because without it, Cornell is alone in 7th. Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?

clarkson becoming a tuc hurt. root for them to lose two more. plus isnt it hard to get tickets from the clarkson ticket office?

I'd say root for exactly the same results tonight. That way we play Clarkson and, while winning, either 1) knock them from TUC - Good, or 2) beat them twice while they hang on to TUC and thus we add two more TUC wins - Good

We want to control our destiny re: Clarkson's TUC status, not have them play someone else and stay TUC.

Another reason to play them is they'll come in with a 17-15 record, so we may get a small RPI boost from beating them. Playing and beating Brown, Yale, Princeton, Union, QU or even RPI wouldn't be as helpful.

Chris '03
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.

UMD's RPI will stay about where it is with another result like friday. Since they're at .500 they are at the exact point where a win or a loss has the highest impact on their own record, which is 25% of RPI. Losing again tonight drops their win % to .486 which is enough to almost offset adding another instance of MN's record to their Opp record column.

They're playing at DU in the WCHA quarters. They'll lose two more there putting their win % at .463, even if they win one of three. They don't need to get swept.

There's only one case of a TUC having a losing record, that's OSU which has the highest strength of schedule in the country. UMD's is currently 32nd, and they'll being playing Denver who's win rank is only 17th.

No way they stay TUC, unless they win 2 more games.

calgARI '07
I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?

No, but it is sure they'll use some bonus, and its been in that range. The numbers aren't released.

calgARI '07
Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?

You're a smart guy, Ari. I suggest you take some time to learn how the PWR works a bit more. So you know why no one can just answer that question. Or if you already do know and are just being lazy, well that I totallly respect

[www.uscho.com]

DeltaOne81

calgARI '07
I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?

No, but it is sure they'll use some bonus, and its been in that range. The numbers aren't released.

calgARI '07
Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?

You're a smart guy, Ari. I suggest you take some time to learn how the PWR works a bit more. So you know why no one can just answer that question. Or if you already do know and are just being lazy, well that I totallly respect

[www.uscho.com]

Sometimes I feel like I really understand it whereas others I just don't know. I just want to go to Albany or Worcester and really dont wanna go to North Dakota or Wisconsin. Maybe I'll just start praying or something.

yeah i know what u mean ari. I just want to go to ithaca for the playoffs next weekend...cant find tickets. clarkson is usually a bitch to get tix from...I hope cornell plays someone other than clarkson.

PWR maybe makes sense if you just capture one snapshot at season's end (or seeding time) and it is what it is. Following it daily as the season winds down, you see that Cornell is unchanged as a team and unchanged in its abilities to play hockey (in sickness or health), yet our potential seed and playoff location bounces around if North Dakota wins or RPI loses. Especially vexing when we're affected by a team that plays a team we never played.

Or is it like democracy ... worst form of government except everything tried before?

Ken '70
UMD's RPI will stay about where it is with another result like friday. Since they're at .500 they are at the exact point where a win or a loss has the highest impact on their own record, which is 25% of RPI. Losing again tonight drops their win % to .486 which is enough to almost offset adding another instance of MN's record to their Opp record column.

Could you explain what you mean by that? When a team is at 1.000, a loss has its greatest impact on its record. When a team is at .000, a win has its greatest impact on its record.


I am reading all of these PWR threads so that I will understand it in the one year in the distant future when it will make a difference to RPI. Probably they will have changed the system seven times before that, or I'll be dead ... or both.

the short answer. I'll have others provide the full mathematical analysis

RPI = 25% of the team's record, 50% of opponent's records, 25% of opponents' opponent's records.

Opponent's records exclude your games aginst them - similarly for OO records.
So it's possible that even if you beat a team (e.g. Brown; Northeastern, etc), your RPI will go down because of the weight on opponent's records.

Team A has a 19-1 record, or .9500. They win their next game to go to 20-1, their win % increases to .9524, an increase of .0024, (25% of which flows to RPI).

Team B has a 10-10 record, or .5000. They win their next game to go to 11-10. Their new winning % is .5238. an increase of .238, about 100 times larger increase in winning % than team A.

The delta as to the absolute effect of an incremental win or loss is greater as you get closer to .5000, from either direction. The greatest single gain, or loss, a team can experience is at it moves from .5000.

Therefore the further you are from .5000 the greater the effect of your next opponent's winning % on your RPI relative to the gain/loss you get from winning/losing the game.

Sorry, the above is true only as you move away from .5000, not toward it. UMD will be moving away from .5000 tonight, hopefully south. Apologize for the confusion.

Ken '70
Sorry, the above is true only as you move away from .5000, not toward it. UMD will be moving away from .5000 tonight, hopefully south. Apologize for the confusion.

Exactly. In your previous message, ".238" should be ".0238", thus about 10 times bigger than .0024, not 100, but it doesn't change your point.

Ken '70
The delta as to the absolute effect of an incremental win or loss is greater as you get closer to .5000, from either direction. The greatest single gain, or loss, a team can experience is at it moves from .5000.

Therefore the further you are from .5000 the greater the effect of your next opponent's winning % on your RPI relative to the gain/loss you get from winning/losing the game.

If you have a perfect record, a loss will drop your RPI further than a loss would if you were at 0.5000 prior to the loss. A win then helps you not at all, other than adding to a buffer if you were to eventually lose (where the RPI drop would be less severe).

As we consider teams with RPI of 0.5000 more than teams with a Brown-like RPI as the "bottom rung," a win certainly does help the 0.5000 team more than the 1.0000 in terms of RPI change, but a loss hurts the 1.0000 team (Minnesota) more than the 0.5000 team (Clarkson).

billhoward
Or is it like democracy ... worst form of government except everything tried before?

Wow, Bill. I think one of your phrases finally hit the nail on the head. PWR is far from perfect, but if you compare it to what football, basketball, or lacrosse do, you should be very greatful for it.

I suppose you're a fan of subjective decisions you could like basketball, but everyone's entitled to be wrong . Football is just messed up, and lacrosse is ust dreadful (love the sport, hate the selection process).

in other sports, cornell is 217 in rpi in mens hoops

und won
uno is winning

Niagara is very close to becoming a TUC - showing as .4989 on Hockey@SiouxSports.com - with the .003 bonus for its away quality win. I'm not sure what win they have constitutes quality (Alabama-Huntsville?)so perhaps this website isn't correct. Anyway I believe they are getting close.

It would seem that the Big Red's pairwise rating would jump significantly if Niagara makes it to the "upper level". Can someone decipher if the Purple Eagles can become a TUC and the impact that will have to Cornell's PWR?

Brad Crispell
Can someone decipher if the Purple Eagles can become a TUC and the impact that will have to Cornell's PWR?

They could assure TUC status by winning the CHA tournament.

Brad Crispell
Niagara is very close to becoming a TUC - showing as .4989 on Hockey@SiouxSports.com - with the .003 bonus for its away quality win. I'm not sure what win they have constitutes quality

December 30, 2005: Niagara 6, New Hampshire 2. [www.collegehockeystats.net]

Brad Crispell
I'm not sure what win they have constitutes quality (Alabama-Huntsville?)/quote]

You can't get a quality win in a conference game.

or a nonconference game against a conference foe

still 1-0 SLU after 2

1-1 third period, 2:54 in

no... this cannot be like last night... no more overtime...

2-1 SLU 11 min left

me
2-1 SLU 11 min left

This game is being updated in three threads.

2-2 8:40 left or played in the third. Sounds like it was a divinesque goal.

updated with the slu(t) result.

Just to point out the wacky nature of the PWR, and to return to a topic that someone broached a few weeks ago, I ran JTW's DIY PWR script and changed that MSU loss to a win. If that had happened, we would've been the #1 overall seed in the tournament at this point.

What this type of behavior says about the PWR is clear; what this small difference between supremacy and struggle says about our team is less clear. Are we a lucky streak away from ECAC and national championships, or are we the talented also-rans? I guess we'll find out.

Adam provides another very good breakdown of the current PWR situation.
[www.collegehockeynews.com]

[Q]10. Cornell — This is the first team in the list that is truly vulnerable to not making the tournament, though Cornell is likely in already. The Big Red didn't play, but slipped a couple of spots. It could've been worse, had Union defeated Yale (don't ask). You know what's amazing? If Cornell had swept its season-opening series against Michigan State, instead of splitting, the Big Red would be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament right now. What does that say about the nature of the Pairwise? Especially since that would make them only No. 10 in KRACH.[/Q]

[Q]What does that say about the nature of the Pairwise? Especially since that would make them only No. 10 in KRACH.[/Q]

It tells me that PWR > KRACH.

Since I'm too lazy to look myself, can someone quickly say how the MSU flip would vault us to #1? It's obviously not RPI. Is it just that that flips COp against a bunch of western teams?

KeithK
Since I'm too lazy to look myself, can someone quickly say how the MSU flip would vault us to #1? It's obviously not RPI. Is it just that that just flip COp against a bunch of western teams?

RPI would be .5544. Cornell would be tied with Minnesota with 30 comparison wins and wins the comparison with Minnesota while losing the comparison with BU.

In the case of Minnesota we are currently losing 3-0 (RPI, TUC, ComOp). With the MSU win Cornell would take TUC and ComOp and win 2-1. With Wisconsin we are currently losing 2-0 (ComOp is tied) and with the MSU win we would take the comparison 2-1, gaining ComOp and TUC. Same case with Miami. With MSU we are currently tied 2-2 and they win on RPI. Shift a head to head game to us and we win that one 3-1.

This is our fault. If only we'd have started the PWR threads and intense discussion sooner, the team would have known exactly what to do to get that #1 seed...

Edit: originally taken down in the interest of being nonconfrontational, then put up due to KeithK's inconsiderate quoting...

ebilmes
This is our fault. If only we'd have started the PWR threads and intense discussion sooner, the team would have known exactly what to do to get that #1 seed...

I blame Whelan. If only he'd had his PWR script up and running for this season back in October, the team might have known they had to sweep MSU. We needed the ability to predict the entire season in advance.


Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October. OK, I blame someone else for not stepping up and doing it! Not me, of course. I'm blameless.

Edit: Heh, caught ebilmes before the edit.

KeithK
Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October.

You mean like whether my apartment had flooded and how many advanced civilizations of mold and maggots had arisen in my refrigerator?

jtwcornell91

KeithK
Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October.

You mean like whether my apartment had flooded and how many advanced civilizations of mold and maggots had arisen in my refrigerator?

\

Well its about damn time the molds and maggots started pulling their own weight around here. Is getting a PWR script up and running pre-season really *that* much to ask?

jtwcornell91

KeithK
Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October.

You mean like whether my apartment had flooded and how many advanced civilizations of mold and maggots had arisen in my refrigerator?

ouch, that sux, john. they have all been exterminated I hope spores can be a bitch, ask ripley [www.imdb.com]

Robert Morris just beat Air Force 4-3 in the CHA quarterfinals which is interesting only in that they will play Niagara in tomorrow's semifinals. This is interesting only in that Niagara is still alive to win the CHA autobid and become a TUC. And as of right now adding two more TUC wins does nothing for us.

Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?

Jeff Hopkins '82
Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?

Niagara is not in any danger of becoming a top 15 team.

nyc94

Jeff Hopkins '82
Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?

Niagara is not in any danger of becoming a top 15 team.

OK thanks. I didn't know whether the criterion was being a tournament team, or something else.

nyc94
This is interesting only in that Niagara is still alive to win the CHA autobid and become a TUC. And as of right now adding two more TUC wins does nothing for us.

but it could certainly mean something by March 18.

Big night with crazy results. UMD beat Denver, Mankato beat NoDak, UNO lost, MSU lost, Niagara a TUC (for now), etc.

Among other things, Cornell flipped the Miami comparison.

I haven't thought it all the way through, but it looks like if the season ended today Cornell would be in Miami's bracket in Albany.

Cornell now t5 with the 33/22/11 bonus:

1  	Minnesota 	31  	1  	26-6-5  	.7703  	1  	.5858*
2 	Wisconsin 	30 	3 	24-9-3 	        .7083 	2 	.5794*
3t 	Miami 	        28 	2 	24-7-4 	        .7429 	3 	.5635*
3t 	Boston U 	28 	7 	22-9-4 	        .6857 	4 	.5591
5t 	Michigan State 	26 	12t 	20-11-8 	.6154 	5 	.5567
5t 	Cornell 	26 	6 	18-7-4 	        .6897 	8 	.5467
7 	Colorado Coll 	23 	12t 	23-14-2 	.6154 	10 	.5461
8t 	North Dakota 	22 	14 	23-15-1 	.6026 	6 	.5479
8t 	Michigan 	22 	21t 	19-13-5 	.5811 	7 	.5469
8t 	Nebraska-Omaha 	22 	19 	20-13-6 	.5897 	12 	.5418
8t 	Harvard 	22 	15t 	17-11-2 	.6000 	11 	.5461
8t 	Maine 	        22 	5 	25-10-2 	.7027 	9 	.5465
13t 	Boston College 	19 	8 	22-11-3 	.6528 	13 	.5411
13t 	New Hampshire 	19 	11 	20-11-7 	.6184 	14 	.5397
13t 	Denver  	19 	21t 	20-14-3 	.5811 	15 	.5365
16 	Dartmouth 	16 	15t 	17-11-2 	.6000 	16 	.5347
17 	Ferris State 	15 	29 	17-14-8 	.5385 	17 	.5318
18 	N Michigan 	14 	18 	21-14-2 	.5946 	20 	.5250
19 	Alaska-F 	12 	26 	18-14-5 	.5541 	18 	.5305
20t 	Holy Cross 	11 	4 	23-9-2 	        .7059 	19 	.5266
20t 	St. Lawrence 	11 	20 	20-14-2 	.5833 	21 	.5240*
22 	MinnesotaState 	9 	34 	17-16-4 	.5135 	28 	.5083
23t 	Vermont 	8 	27 	18-14-6 	.5526 	27 	.5084
23t 	St. Cloud 	8 	24 	19-14-4 	.5676 	22 	.5204
25t 	Colgate 	7 	15t 	18-11-6 	.6000 	23 	.5154
25t 	Ohio State 	7 	37 	15-19-5 	.4487 	24 	.5141
27t 	Providence 	6 	31t 	17-16-3 	.5139 	25 	.5098
27t 	Lake Superior 	6 	31t 	15-14-7 	.5139 	26 	.5087
29 	Sacred Heart 	4 	9 	20-11-2 	.6364 	29 	.5078
30 	Clarkson 	2 	31t 	17-16-3 	.5139 	31 	.5005
31 	Mercyhurst 	1 	10 	20-12-1 	.6212 	30 	.5013
32 	Niagara 	0 	25 	18-14-1 	.5606 	32 	.5000

I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005. This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status? (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)

Crazy 5 way tie for 8th.

Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Harvard (11)
4 UNH (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 BC (13)

Problems - 6 Cornell / 11 Harvard, 4 BU / 13 BC

The Cornell issue is easily repaired by sending Harvard to Worcester in replace of Maine. Neither team would mind that flip too much and seems most fair.

BU/BC is tricker. Cant move BU. 13 BC flipping with 14 UNH useless. So next is 13 BC with 15 AHA/CHA. Leaving:

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 BC (13)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNH (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Harvard (11)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Only teams with a right to complain are Wisc (who is deprived of the supposed patsy) and BC - who has to travel to Green Bay and face #2 in the country.

Anything I get wrong?

Conclusion: yes, be #6 or above is pretty key for us staying east.

Well I like the spot we are in now, 2 weekends in Albany wont be that bad

If someone other than Cornell or Harvard wins the ECAC there are going to be some grumpy Hockey East fans.

DeltaOIne81

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 BC (13)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNH (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Harvard (11)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Only teams with a right to complain are Wisc (who is deprived of the supposed patsy) and BC - who has to travel to Green Bay and face #2 in the country.

Anything I get wrong?

Very similar to what USCHO came up with. They have Dartmouth in instead of UNH, possibly because BC and UNH play each other next week, guaranteeing 2 losses for one of them. They put Dartmouth in Worcester and sent the AHA/CHA team you had there to Green Bay. BC is placed in Albany instead of UNH.

[www.uscho.com]

Edit: no, they gave the #1 seeds in each tournament the projected "autobid," and that's how Dartmouth got into their projected bracket.

RichH
Very similar to what USCHO came up with. They have Dartmouth in instead of UNH, possibly because BC and UNH play each other next week, guaranteeing 2 losses for one of them. They put Dartmouth in Worcester and sent the AHA/CHA team you had there to Green Bay. BC is placed in Albany instead of UNH.

I know you edited your post but I'm just pointing out that next week would be single elimination semifinals and final. And Hockey East doesn't play a consolation game so those teams can only have one more loss each, max.

nyc94
I know you edited your post but I'm just pointing out that next week would be single elimination semifinals and final. And Hockey East doesn't play a consolation game so those teams can only have one more loss each, max.

Ah, you're right. I've got 3-game series on the brain for some reason this week.

jmh30
I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005. This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status? (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)

It is very, very tight and depends on outcomes of other games that effect Clarkson's Op and OpOp %s. They need Niagara, Umass, SLU, MIami and Bemidji to almost all win tonight and then to have continued success. It also will help Clarkson stay TUC if Cornell continues to win since Clarkson has 4 instances of Cornell in its Op column.

However, I don't think it matters much. I ran a script where most favorites, or teams that won last night, continue to win. If Cornell wins its next two but loses the ECAC final, they're still in 6th playing either BU or Miami in the east. If Cornell wins the final they're in Albany (as #4) playing Miami.

Cornell is in pretty good shape if they just win, which they've had trouble doing when needed from a PWR perspective.

Ken '70

jmh30
I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005. This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status? (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)

It is very, very tight and depends on outcomes of other games that effect Clarkson's Op and OpOp %s. They need Niagara, Umass, SLU, MIami and Bemidji to almost all win tonight and then to have continued success. It also will help Clarkson stay TUC if Cornell continues to win since Clarkson has 4 instances of Cornell in its Op column.

This is one of those stupid PWR things where it might actually end up better for Cornell to beat Clarkson 2-1 in the series rather than sweeping, if the extra win for Clarkson keeps them as a TUC AND it improves Cornell's TUC record enough to flip a comparison. Of course, we won't know that until the end of the conference tournaments when all the games are played and we can flop the result in the DIY script, but it's possible.

Stupid PWR.

Ken '70
Cornell is in pretty good shape if they just win, which they've had trouble doing when needed from a PWR perspective.

I beg to differ, Cornell is in great shape if they just win.

updated the first post with the new rankings. didnt have access til this AM to a computer

It's worth noting that Niagara is a TUC with the 33-22-11 bonus but not with 3-2-1. It's that close.

Quick question...

Haven't been following this closely, but when/why did 33-22-11 replace 3-2-1 as the likely bonus?

jy3
updated the first post with the new rankings. didnt have access til this AM to a computer

You spelled Cornell wrong...

I believe the song goes, "C-O-R-N-E-DOUBLE L...."

Tub(a)
Quick question...

Haven't been following this closely, but when/why did 33-22-11 replace 3-2-1 as the likely bonus?

After each selection show, people try to 'reverse engineer' what the bonus was based on who ended up where. Apparently some people determined that what they were using was more like 33-22-11 than 3-2-1.

Robb
This is one of those stupid PWR things where it might actually end up better for Cornell to beat Clarkson 2-1 in the series rather than sweeping, if the extra win for Clarkson keeps them as a TUC AND it improves Cornell's TUC record enough to flip a comparison. Of course, we won't know that until the end of the conference tournaments when all the games are played and we can flop the result in the DIY script, but it's possible.

Stupid PWR.

The worst scenario for Cornell is the one described above. Their TUC record is 10-4-1, or .7000. Beating Clarkson 2-1 makes their TUC 11-5-1, or .6765. If Cornell just wins tonight and Clarkson drops for good, then their TUC is 9-3-1, or .7308. In the case of losing to Clarkson tonight but winning tomorrow, not only would it hurt their TUC % but they'd take a RPI hit, which is far more important than TUC right now.

PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.

TCHL8842
Well I like the spot we are in now, 2 weekends in Albany wont be that bad

While I might still prefer going to Lake Placid over going to Albany, I MUCH prefer Albany to Grand Forks.