2005-2006 PWR - playoffs edition!

Ken '70
PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI.

I was actually thinking this last night. It would have eliminated that DU-CC controversy last year anyway.

Ken '70
PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.

AAAARGH! RPI, KRACH, and the arbitrarily chosen criteria of PWR all depend only on the "actual result on the ice". Don't perpetuate the ridiculous fallacy that rating systems which deal with the unavoidable complications of an unbalanced schedule are somehow not determined by game results.

 

___________________________
JTW

Enjoy the latest hockey geek tools at [www.elynah.com]

jtwcornell91

Ken '70
PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.

AAAARGH! RPI, KRACH, and the arbitrarily chosen criteria of PWR all depend only on the "actual result on the ice". Don't perpetuate the ridiculous fallacy that rating systems which deal with the unavoidable complications of an unbalanced schedule are somehow not determined by game results.

I think the main point Ken was trying to make was that Head to Head was a preferable tiebreaker vs. how teams did against the schedule as a whole.

jtwcornell91

Ken '70
PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.

AAAARGH! RPI, KRACH, and the arbitrarily chosen criteria of PWR all depend only on the "actual result on the ice". Don't perpetuate the ridiculous fallacy that rating systems which deal with the unavoidable complications of an unbalanced schedule are somehow not determined by game results.

The result of how two teams actually did against each other as a means of breaking ties in an otherwise more complex system can hardly be called arbitrary. RPI and KRACH are mathematical abstractions drawn from real results, but not the results themselves.

But this is a religious argument for you, so I'll bow out at this point. Reasoning against an Islamic jihadist or KRACH devotee is equally futile.

Ken '70
The worst scenario for Cornell is the one described above. Their TUC record is 10-4-1, or .7000. Beating Clarkson 2-1 makes their TUC 11-5-1, or .6765. If Cornell just wins tonight and Clarkson drops for good, then their TUC is 9-3-1, or .7308. In the case of losing to Clarkson tonight but winning tomorrow, not only would it hurt their TUC % but they'd take a RPI hit, which is far more important than TUC right now.

I think your point is correct, but we're already 2-1 vs. Clarkson, so if they drop out of TUC, then wouldn't our TUC record go to 8-3-1 (.7083) instead of .7308?

Best case scenario is that we sweep them AND they remain a TUC, which would get us to 11-4-1 (.7188). Of course, our "current" 10-4-1 is dependent upon Niagara "remaining" a TUC, which they are only with at least a 33/22/11 bonus (exactly at .500 RPI right now) or winning their tourney. If they tack on two more wins but lose their conference championship, then perhaps a 3/2/1 bonus will still get them to TUC status, but it'll be close.

Go Purple Eagles!!!!

Speaking again of Niagara, they are tied with Robert Morris at 2-2 late in the second.

Live box score at [www.collegehockeyamerica.com]

Robb
Go Purple Eagles!!!!

Niagara squandered a two goal lead and is tied with RMU at the end of 2 periods

Ken '70
The result of how two teams actually did against each other as a means of breaking ties in an otherwise more complex system can hardly be called arbitrary.

I didn't say using head-to-head results as a tiebreaker was arbitrary. I said the selection criteria that make up the PWR were arbitrarily chosen. Why is a TUC a team with an RPI above .500 and not just above .600? Why are the RPI weights 25-50-25? Why is the "quality wins" bonus whatever it is? But my point is that any of these measures is still a way of quantifying the results of an entire season.

Ken '70
RPI and KRACH are mathematical abstractions drawn from real results, but not the results themselves.

So is winning percentage, but we still use that to determine the final standings within a league. So is a point system that makes a win worth 3 points and an overtime or shootout loss worth 1. Does that mean the NHL doesn't choose playoff teams based on the results of games, because they convert those results into points first?

Ken '70
But this is a religious argument for you, so I'll bow out at this point. Reasoning against an Islamic jihadist or KRACH devotee is equally futile.

I see. Anyone who disagrees with your opinion about the best way to rank teams--or even considers as valid something other your preferred system--is a fanatic. Wonderful rhetorical tactic. Have fun with your ball at home.

Niagara up 3-2.

French Rage
Niagara up 3-2.

Final: Niagara 3, Robt Morris 2.

Niagara's RPI is now .4992 so they are a TUC with the 3-2-1 bonus (not only 33-22-11)

nyc94
Niagara's RPI is now .4992 so they are a TUC with the 3-2-1 bonus (not only 33-22-11)

I remember a lot of whining about having Niagara on the schedule at the beginning of the year, and I was probably part of it.

I don't know if Schafer got lucky or knew something that we didn't, but this would obviously be huge for CU.

After tonight's ECAC results, Clarkson's RPI now stands at .4997. *sigh*

Clarkson's RPI falls to .4997 with several western games still in progress. They have no quality wins.

Niagara at .4982 with a quality road win at UNH. And they play Bemidji Sunday in the CHA finals.

jmh30
After tonight's ECAC results, Clarkson's RPI now stands at .4997. *sigh*

Since we played 3 games worth of Hockey this weekend, think we can convince the NCAA to at least give them credit for an extra tie?

nyc94
.4997

Stupid cliff.

Robb

nyc94
.4997

Stupid cliff.

It doesn't matter much, we're .7083 vs. TUC w/o them - 8-3-1.

With then we'd be 11-4-1, or .7188 .

If we had lost to them allowing them to be a TUC, we'd be 11-5-1, or .6765.


So at least there's no "if we had lost we'd be better" situation like Wisc had last (?) year.

And it makes no difference in any of our TUC categories at the moment, nevertheless overall comparisons. I guess it could when its all said and done, but, by then, Clarkson could be TUC with a few Miami, etc wins.

I expect clarksons RPI to go up when all is said and done since Opp win % is 50% of the RPI. Right now only Quinny and Bemidji are below Clarkson in RPI and not by much. I didn't try any math, but since everyone left is going to be playing higher RPI teams I'fd think that the RPI of the group would go up over the remaining games.

Cross your fingers. We'll know the chances much better tomorrow night.
---------------

Clarkson's opponents that are still playing are:
Niagra, Bemidji
Miami
Quinny, Colgate, SLU, Harvard, Cornell, Harvard

Plugging in 33/22/11, we're alone in 6th. For 3/2/1, we're tied for 5th still.

After Saturday's games:

Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 CC (8)
3 UND (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 Harvard (7)
3 Mich (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (11)
4 UNO (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 BC (12)
4 UNH (13)

Problems:
8 CC / 9 UND
3 Miami / 14 UNO
4 BU / 13 UNH

Flipping UNO/UNH solves both their problems.

CC/UND, well, they can't move UND (host), so they have to move CC. It makes most sense to switch #8 CC with #7 Harvard. And it also makes the least geographical changes. Here's hoping they'd go with that.

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 Harvard (7)
3 UND (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (8)
3 Mich (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (11)
4 UNH (13)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 BC (12)
4 UNO (14)

Harvard can complain because they play a harder #3 than they should in their own barn. CC is a bit further from home. If UNH wants to complain about being in Albany instead of Worcester, then they're a buncha whiners

we all know it's U-H-N ... c'mon now, you were there

[Q]
Posted by jmh30

After tonight's ECAC results, Clarkson's RPI now stands at .4997. *sigh* [/Q]

Can Clarkson's RPI move up without them playing? (ie depending on outcome of other games?)

Yes - your RPI depends on your opponents' records in all games, not just the ones they play before you hit the golf course...

Just for the record, there are still a couple of comparisons we can flip:

North Dakota: They pretty much need to lose tonight and we need to keep winning. Then we can flip RPI - there's only 0.0004 between us - and take the comparison.

Wisconsin: If we play SLU next week, we can get a COP win and flip that comparison.

All the others strike me as out of reach.

For those that care, the great circle distance from Ithaca to:

Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm

All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.

Larry '72

Larry72
For those that care, the great circle distance from Ithaca to:

Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm

All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.

Larry '72

So, what have we learned? Even flying, Grand Forks is still pretty frakkin' far away!

pffft..and the fact that there is no real airport in grand forks....so you have to fly into another city then drive

Will

Larry72
For those that care, the great circle distance from Ithaca to:

Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm

All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.

Larry '72

So, what have we learned? Even flying, Grand Forks is still pretty frakkin' far away!

Larry72

Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm

All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.

Dang. This optics jock thought those were nanometers.

The Quantum Regionals!

Pretty ironic that they don't have a real airport, considering that they have such a strong aviation program at UND...

ben03
we all know it's U-H-N ... c'mon now, you were there

Well, actually I wasn't. Was there for QU and was watching the UHN game from my dorm lounge. But sorry, I'll never make that mistake again

RichH

Larry72

Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm

All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.

Dang. This optics jock thought those were nanometers.

The Quantum Regionals!

So we've got the UND Fighting Infrareds (NCAA can't get too mad at that, can they?), Green Bay is about right, and that leaves New York and Mass. as ultra-blue states....

With Niagra's loss in the CHA title game today:

RPI:
31 Clarkson .4997
32 Niagara .4982
33 Quinnipiac .4934


A combined 7-1 against them

< sigh >

But Niagara has a quality road win at UHN, good for at least .003

Can we pull Clarkson RPI up enough if we win the ECACs to make them a TUC. RPI is based on 25% winning percentage, 50% opponent winning percentage, and 25% opponent-opponent winning percentage. Since we have played Clarkson 4 times, we might be able to pull them up the 0.0003 points to make them a TUC.

Apparently USCHO considers that neutral. But it was at the Whitt. Anyone know why?

TCHL8842
Can we pull Clarkson RPI up enough if we win the ECACs to make them a TUC. RPI is based on 25% winning percentage, 50% opponent winning percentage, and 25% opponent-opponent winning percentage. Since we have played Clarkson 4 times, we might be able to pull them up the 0.0003 points to make them a TUC.

Yes, probably, root for Miami and a few others in this respect too.

Niagra also played QU.. twice. So root for the Q tonight.


But it seems like USCHO is giving Niagra a home bonus for the UNH win whenever I try is. What's going on?? (On both the PWR and RPI screens).

oh, okay

I think the Niagra loss hadn't propogated through to the RPI screen yet.

Now that it has, Niagra is .4961, so the away win brings them to .4991.

So root for UHN (shudder) to keep them top 15. And root for Q to pull them up. And Minn (shudder #2).


And for Clarkson, they only still active teams that can pull them up are us and Miami.

after the niagara loss we lose .0011 and we fall to 8th with 33/22/11

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Minnesota 30 1 27-6-5 .7763 1 .5856*
2 Wisconsin 29 3 25-9-3 .7162 2 .5787*
3t Miami 27 2 25-7-4 .7500 3 .5630
3t Boston University 27 7 23-9-4 .6944 4 .5607
5 Michigan State 25 10t 21-11-8 .6250 5 .5600
6t Harvard 24 14t 18-11-2 .6129 6 .5511
6t Colorado College 24 10t 24-14-2 .6250 8 .5498
6t Cornell 24 6 19-7-4 .7000 9 .5497
9 North Dakota 23 16 24-15-1 .6125 7 .5510
10 Michigan 21 20t 20-13-5 .5921 10 .5487
11t Maine 19 5 26-10-2 .7105 11 .5483
11t Boston College 19 8 22-11-3 .6528 12 .5412
11t New Hampshire 19 12 20-11-7 .6184 13 .5393
14 Nebraska-Omaha 18 22 20-14-6 .5750 14 .5382
15 Denver 16 20t 21-14-3 .5921 15 .5367
16 Dartmouth 15 14t 18-11-2 .6129 16 .5358
17 Northern Michigan 14 18 22-14-2 .6053 18 .5276
18 Ferris State 13 29 17-15-8 .5250 17 .5299
19 Alaska-Fairbanks 12 27 18-15-5 .5395 19 .5275
20 Holy Cross 11 4 24-9-2 .7143 20 .5267*
21 St. Lawrence 10 23 20-15-2 .5676 21 .5208*
22 St. Cloud State 8 25t 19-15-4 .5526 22 .5185
23 Ohio State 7 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5136
24t Providence 6 30t 17-16-3 .5139 25 .5087
24t Lake Superior 6 30t 15-14-7 .5139 26 .5086
26t Vermont 5 25t 18-14-6 .5526 27 .5075
26t Colgate 5 17 19-11-6 .6111 23 .5180
28t Minnesota State 3 32t 17-17-4 .5000 28 .5061
28t Sacred Heart 3 13 20-12-2 .6176 30 .5003
30 Bemidji State 2 19 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4943
31 Mercyhurst 0 9 21-12-1 .6324 29 .5022

with .003/.002/.001 bonuses we are 6th

North Dakota 3 Minnesota State 0 [end of 2nd]

Colorado College 0 Saint Cloud State 0 [end of 1st]

going to update the rankings on the first page after the scores are done. lets try not to update scores here as that is why the previous thread was huge and unwieldy

Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.

Trotsky
Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.

UMD
SCSU
Mankato

Trotsky
Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.

Duluth and St. Cloud I'm pretty sure are no brainers.

NoDak and MSU-M have different reasons for each. While MSU-M being under .500 RPI would be nice, I don't think a loss tonight would do it. Thus, root for them to beat NoDak and help flip the NoDak-CU comparison and keep control of it in CU's hands next week with ND idle.

redhair34

Trotsky
Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.

UMD
SCSU
Mankato

Thanks. Go Second-rate Minnesota Schools!!!

NoDak wins 3-0.

UMD scores 3 unanswered goals and takes a 3-1 lead over Denver . A loss for Denver will end their bid for 3 straight NC titles.

Under 7 minutes in the second period at CC, with the hosts trailing St. Cloud 1-0.

Minnesota-Duluth trying for the upset, up 3-1 at Denver.

Now 4-1 UMD.

SCSU 1 CC 0, through 2.

after the nodak win we are alone at #6 with 33/22/11
umd winning would be huge for cornell as we played them, for the ecachl as that would mean denver will likely fall below dartmouth -> one more possible ecachl for a remote chance at an at large if dartmouth doesnt win albany

SCSU goes back up 2-1 with 13:10 to go in Colorado Springs.

UMD up 4-1 and with a 5x3 with 12 minutes to go. Denver in serious trouble.

EAG Goal. 4-2 now with 5 to play.

St. Cloud 3 CC 1, 4 minutes to go.

SCSU 3 CC 1 2:30 left.

5 min major just called on CC's Sertich of all people.

... 1 minute left in DU's season (hopefully), 1 minute...

SCSU 3 CC 1 final

ENG for UMD... now a little pushing and scoving in the corners

5-2 UMD with 0:13 left

UMD 5 DU 2 Final. UMD scoread an ENG with 30 sec remaining

Final in Denver!

#2 & #5 in the WCHA knocked off...

awaiting PWR implications...

DeltaOne81
... 1 minute left in DU's season (hopefully), 1 minute...

Man, this game makes Clarkson look tame. These guys have been nailing each other hard since Denver went down by 3. When Denver started to pull their goalie, things settled down but the empty netter brought back the bad blood. These guys play with a lot of anger...makes me think of the Clarkson player repeatedly smashing his stick on the goal post and the ice after their season ended.

Oh well, DU is done.

St. Cloud wins 3-1.

i think all is in the books and in the rankings. updated the first post

I'm getting 5th with no bonus and 33-22-11, 6th with 3-2-1.

Now t5th with the 33/22/11 bonus in play. The bottoms of the bracket is getting infested with HEA teams. At first glance looks like Worcester could be CU/Maine and BU/UNO.

1  	Minnesota 	30  	1  	27-6-5  	.7763  	1  	.5853*
2 	Wisconsin 	29 	3 	25-9-3  	.7162 	2 	.5777*
3t 	Michigan State 	27 	9 	22-11-8 	.6341 	3 	.5629
3t 	Boston U 	27 	7 	23-9-4 	        .6944 	4 	.5628
5t 	Cornell         25 	6 	19-7-4  	.7000 	8 	.5501
5t 	Miami 	        25 	2 	25-7-4  	.7500 	5 	.5627
7t 	Harvard 	24 	11 	19-11-2 	.6250 	6 	.5557
7t 	North Dakota 	24 	12 	25-15-1 	.6220 	7 	.5541
9 	Michigan 	22 	20 	20-13-5 	.5921 	9 	.5478
10 	Colorado C 	21 	17 	24-15-2 	.6098 	10 	.5470
11 	New Hampshire 	20 	14 	20-11-7 	.6184 	12 	.5417
12 	Maine 	        19 	5 	26-10-2 	.7105 	11 	.5456
13t 	Boston College 	18 	8 	22-11-3 	.6528 	13 	.5414
13t 	Nebraska-Omaha 	18 	22 	20-14-6 	.5750 	14 	.5376
15 	Dartmouth 	15 	16 	18-11-2 	.6129 	15 	.5357
16t 	Denver  	14 	21 	21-15-3 	.5769 	17 	.5297
16t 	Northern Mich 	14 	18 	22-14-2 	.6053 	18 	.5278
18t 	Ferris State 	13 	29 	17-15-8 	.5250 	19 	.5262
18t 	Holy Cross 	13 	4 	24-9-2 	        .7143 	16 	.5300*
20 	Alaska-F 	11 	28 	18-16-5 	.5256 	20 	.5251
21 	St. Cloud  	10 	23 	20-15-4 	.5641 	21 	.5232
22 	St. Lawrence 	8 	25t 	20-16-2 	.5526 	23 	.5183*
23t 	Ohio State 	7 	37 	15-19-5 	.4487 	24 	.5130
23t 	Vermont 	7 	25t 	18-14-6 	.5526 	25 	.5089
25t 	Lake Superior 	6 	30t 	15-14-7 	.5139 	26 	.5087
25t 	Colgate 	6 	13 	20-11-6 	.6216 	22 	.5217
27 	Providence 	4 	30t 	17-16-3 	.5139 	27 	.5087
28t 	Minnesota St 	3 	33 	17-18-4 	.4872 	28 	.5041
28t 	Sacred Heart 	3 	15 	20-12-2 	.6176 	30 	.5003
30 	Bemidji State 	2 	19 	20-13-3 	.5972 	33 	.4947
31 	Mercyhurst 	0 	10 	21-12-1 	.6324 	29 	.5022

Obligatory question:

Does Cornell have shot at a 1st seed?

deleted...erroneous

With 33/22/11 bonus...
[Q]
Rk Team PWR RPI
1 Minnesota 30 .5853*
2 Wisconsin 29 .5777*
3t Michigan State 27 .5629
3t Boston University 27 .5628
5t Cornell 25 .5501
5t Miami 25 .5627
7t Harvard 24 .5557
7t North Dakota 24 .5541
9 Michigan 22 .5478
10 Colorado College 21 .5470
11 New Hampshire 20 .5417
12 Maine 19 .5456
13t Boston College 18 .5414
13t Nebraska-Omaha 18 .5376
15 Dartmouth 15 .5357
16t Denver 14 .5297
16t Northern Michigan14 .5278 [/Q]

With 33/22/11 bonus, as of Sunday night:

Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 Harvard (7)
3 CC (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Albany
1 MSU (3)
2 Miami (6)
3 UNH (11)
4 UNO (14)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 Cornell (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 BC (13)

Problems:
3 MSU / 14 UNO
4 BU / 13 BC

Easy fix: Flipping UNO/BC solves both problems.

Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)

Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 Harvard (7)
3 CC (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)

Albany
1 MSU (3)
2 Miami (6)
3 UNH (11)
4 BC (13)

Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 Cornell (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNO (14)

BC may not be thrilled with going to Albany instead of Worcester, but big freakin' wah (anyone else notice my comments are getting progressively more sarcastic? )

I am updating the first post as well, so people can just look at that if they want to

bc can complain all they want. after todays selection show for bball, at least they werent screwed like cinci

How about some best and worse case scenario's? What is the lowest Cornell could finish? What is the highest? Is there any possibility of Minnesota or Wisconsin falling out of the top two?

After all this speculation, it's almost weird to think that we'll know for certain in a week.

calgARI '07
How about some best and worse case scenario's? What is the lowest Cornell could finish? What is the highest? Is there any possibility of Minnesota or Wisconsin falling out of the top two?

Ah, *now* is the time to start asking this

Except, well, now is not the time... because its 12:10 am and I need to get to bed. But assuming that JTW or USCHO gets their You Are the Committee script up soon, you can bet you'll have plenty of answers to this in the next few days.

Wait... do we somehow win the tiebreaker against Miami? I thought it was RPI, which we're behind on.

Dafatone
Wait... do we somehow win the tiebreaker against Miami? I thought it was RPI, which we're behind on.

we win the pairwise comparison against them... we're behind on RPI, but ahead on TUC win % and COP win %.

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Cornell in 2nd (GO UMD!):

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Harvard defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.

Cornell at 13 :

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

Curious to see what other extremes people come up with

Used 33/22/11

One more interesting thing:

The most likely finish if we win the semi and lose the final is 8th with Minnesota in 1st. Since Green Bay is slightly closer to Minneapolis than Grand Forks, that would likely put us in Green Bay without Wisconsin. That would be

Minnesota
Cornell
Michigan
Mercyhurst

for a very interesting bracket.

But that is all loser talk

Cornell in 3rd...

# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan State.
# CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
# ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
# ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
# WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
# WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.

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This seems like a realistic possibility. We need to win ECAC championship and then have UNH knock off BU (I got the same result for .003 vs. .0033 etc. for bonuses).

Tub(a)
One more interesting thing:

The most likely finish if we win the semi and lose the final is 8th with Minnesota in 1st. Since Green Bay is slightly closer to Minneapolis than Grand Forks, that would likely put us in Green Bay without Wisconsin. That would be

Minnesota
Cornell
Michigan
Mercyhurst

for a very interesting bracket.

With all the locals angry that we're the Red/White team that showed up.

Actually we can end up 5th and in worcester when loosing the final and allowing for Dartmouth to get in, but it would require upsets in the other leagues.
[Q]
You have specified the following tournament results:

Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Bentley defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Connecticut defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Connecticut defeats Bentley.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Miami.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
[/Q]

Here's a question... can anyone find a scenario where we're out of the tournament? If the worst anyone can come up with is 13th, then that's not a bad situation. Not that I want to see that, but hey, it should keep us east (assuming that the AHA/Bemidji will be sent west as the patsies)

DeltaOne81
Here's a question... can anyone find a scenario where we're out of the tournament? If the worst anyone can come up with is 13th, then that's not a bad situation. Not that I want to see that, but hey, it should keep us east (assuming that the AHA/Bemidji will be sent west as the patsies)

13th would still knock them out if there were 2 surprise winners in the major conference tournaments. 13 + 2 dark horses + 2 minor conference winners = SOL.

Trotsky

DeltaOne81
Here's a question... can anyone find a scenario where we're out of the tournament? If the worst anyone can come up with is 13th, then that's not a bad situation. Not that I want to see that, but hey, it should keep us east (assuming that the AHA/Bemidji will be sent west as the patsies)

13th would still knock them out if there were 2 surprise winners in the major conference tournaments. 13 + 2 dark horses + 2 minor conference winners = SOL.

Yeah, but the #13 scenario layed out by Tub(a) has Miami, Dartmouth, BU, & Minn. Which is at most 1 upset, but Dartmouth with 2 wins is probably in anyway.

We all probably agree that right now winning the ECACs is the most important goal. That being said, anyone care to figure out what the worst possible seed we could have in the tournament would be, assuming we win our next two?

Thanks.
Andy

andy, you probably already have done this but... check out the possibilities thread

updated the first post with post-scsu win rankings

For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.

double posted

nyc94
For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.

yeah it was a joke obviously, i can just make them bold

jy3

nyc94
For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.

yeah it was a joke obviously, i can just make them bold

Oh I got the joke it's just now I actually want to read the numbers without my face an inch from the screen.

nyc94

jy3

nyc94
For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.

yeah it was a joke obviously, i can just make them bold

Oh I got the joke it's just now I actually want to read the numbers without my face an inch from the screen.

did the bold help?

i think all the early games are in, rankings updated

jy3
did the bold help?

Since you asked, no, not really. It could just be the combination of my screen and the lighting conditions. I just tried turning out the lights and I can see it a little better.

going to wait until all games are final for 2nite. right now cornell is tied for 5th with SUCKS. north dakota losing tomorrow will help us flip that comparison. cornell just needs to win and get some help to get a #1 seed. LGR!

Cross-posted from the other scores thread. I haven't seen how Cornell can get a number one seed yet...

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t Root against North Dakota. They are the only team that can hurt us from my rough calculations. Regardless of who wins this WCHA game or the ECACHL, if North Dakota wins Cornell is heading west on a 3/2/1 bonus.

On a 33/22/11 A Cornell win puts them in Albany as 5, and a loss puts them west.

On any other bonus higher (or lower) than 33/22/11 Cornell appears to be stuck in 7th and headed west regardless of the ECACHL result.

It is still impossible to figure out every permutation, but these are the most likely outcomes as of right now.

tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east

I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...

abmarks
tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east

I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...

i *think* that was ruined by north dakota winning 2nite. i might be wrong...