2005-2006 PWR

[redhair34]

[quote Trotsky]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]

Yeah I admit that is a bit of an eye sore.

[Trotsky]

[quote Al DeFlorio][quote Trotsky][quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]

Gotta go with BU in this one.  They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved.  I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2.  Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]

:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]

Or genius[/quote]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/quote]
I disagree.

[KeithK]

[q]But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/q]May I suggest a manual quote or at least some editing for these cases?

[ugarte]

[quote Trotsky]I disagree.[/quote]Which makes you both wrong and frequently inscrutable.

[jy3]

[quote Trotsky][quote Al DeFlorio][quote Trotsky][quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]

Gotta go with BU in this one.  They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved.  I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2.  Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]

:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]

Or genius[/quote]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/quote]
I disagree.[/quote]


ooh lets make a huge one of these

pending cc and und...und losing to CC will help cornell possibly flip the und comparison if not make it easier...
with 33/22/11 bonus

Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1    Wisconsin    28    2    19-6-2    .7407    1    .6057
2    Minnesota    27    6    18-6-4    .7143    2    .5957
3    Miami    26    1    19-5-4    .7500    3    .5770
4    Colorado College    25    11    17-10-1 .6250    4    .5596
5    Boston University    24    10    15-8-2    .6400    5    .5506
6t    Boston College    22    5    17-6-2    .7200    6    .5505
6t    Nebraska-Omaha    22    25    15-11-3    .5690    7    .5473
8t    Michigan State    20    23    15-10-7    .5781    9    .5448
8t    Cornell    20    4    14-4-3    .7381    12    .5419
10    Michigan    19    18    15-10-3    .5893    8    .5454
11t    Ohio State    16    27t    14-11-4    .5517    14    .5397
11t    Harvard    16    17    12-8-2    .5909    18    .5318
13t    Providence    15    20t    14-10-1    .5800    11    .5419
13t    St. Cloud State    15    12t    15-9-3    .6111    17    .5325
15    Ferris State    14    27t    13-10-6    .5517    13    .5405
16    North Dakota    13    19    17-12-1    .5833    10    .5432
17t    Lake Superior    11    12t    14-8-5    .6111    16    .5335
17t    Denver    11    14    16-10-2    .6071    20    .5309
19    Maine    10    7t    18-9-0    .6667    19    .5312
20t    Alaska-Fairbanks    9    35    11-12-4 .4815    21    .5276
20t    St. Lawrence    9    20t    14-10-1    .5800    15    .5384
20t    New Hampshire    9    26    13-10-4    .5556    22    .5213
23    Vermont    7    7t    17-8-2    .6667    24    .5211
24    Northern Michigan    6    27t    15-12-2 .5517    27    .5153
25    Colgate    4    9    15-7-5    .6481    23    .5213
26t    Bowling Green    3    39    12-16-1    .4310    28    .5025
26t    Dartmouth    3    30    11-10-1    .5227    25    .5187
28    Holy Cross    2    3    18-6-1    .7400    26    .5183
29    Clarkson    0    31t    12-12-2    .5000    29    .5012

[jy3]

well und wins and storms up the computer rankings...and cc gets caught at #4 and we are alone at #8. lets get another win tomorrow RED!
33/22/11

Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1    Wisconsin    28    2    19-6-2    .7407    1    .6041
2    Minnesota    27    6    18-6-4    .7143    2    .5958
3    Miami    26    1    19-5-4    .7500    3    .5772
4t    Colorado College    23    14    17-11-1 .6034    4    .5551
4t    Boston College    23    5    17-6-2    .7200    5    .5505
4t    Boston University    23    10    15-8-2    .6400    6    .5501
7    Nebraska-Omaha    21    25    15-11-3    .5690    8    .5472
8    Cornell    20    4    14-4-3    .7381    11    .5419
9    Michigan State    19    23    15-10-7    .5781    10    .5447
10    Michigan    18    19    15-10-3    .5893    9    .5450
11    North Dakota    17    16    18-12-1    .5968    7    .5482
12t    Ohio State    16    27t    14-11-4    .5517    14    .5389
12t    Harvard    16    18    12-8-2    .5909    18    .5325
14    Providence    15    20t    14-10-1    .5800    12    .5419
15t    St. Cloud State    14    11t    15-9-3    .6111    17    .5328
15t    Ferris State    14    27t    13-10-6    .5517    13    .5405
17    Denver    12    13    16-10-2    .6071    20    .5305
18    Lake Superior    11    11t    14-8-5    .6111    16    .5335
19t    Maine    10    7t    18-9-0    .6667    19    .5308
19t    New Hampshire    10    26    13-10-4    .5556    22    .5219
21t    Alaska-Fairbanks    9    35    11-12-4 .4815    21    .5275
21t    St. Lawrence    9    20t    14-10-1    .5800    15    .5383
23    Vermont    7    7t    17-8-2    .6667    24    .5211
24    Northern Michigan    6    27t    15-12-2 .5517    27    .5152
25    Colgate    4    9    15-7-5    .6481    23    .5213
26t    Bowling Green    3    39    12-16-1    .4310    28    .5024
26t    Dartmouth    3    30    11-10-1    .5227    25    .5187
28    Holy Cross    2    3    18-6-1    .7400    26    .5183
29    Clarkson    0    31t    12-12-2    .5000    29    .5012

[Robb]

Looks like we need to be Clarkson fans for a while, especially if (not a woof) we beat them again next weekend.  We're not in danger of losing any comparisons right now if Clarkson drops out, but a better record vs TUC is always a good thing.  Niagara is at .4888, but their remaining games include Air Force (5-15-1) twice, Wayne State (5-15-5) twice, and RMU (7-15-2) twice, so I don't see how they could possibly become a TUC, regardless of the outcomes of those games.  Union may have a better shot at becoming a TUC - they're at .4882.  However, their remaining schedule (with two notable exceptions) is a who's who of the dregs of the ECAC: Brown, Quinnipiac, Princeton, RPI, and Yale.  If they find a way to meet Clarkson in the first round, they'd have the complete list of the bottom half in the standings.

So I think we're unlikely to pick up any TUC points by teams moving up - we just need to hope that Clarkson stays above .500.

[Josh '99]

[quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]

Gotta go with BU in this one.  They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved.  I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2.  Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]

:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]

Or genius[/quote]In his NFL.com column this year, Gregg Easterbook (AKA Tuesday Morning Quarterback) took each game and matched the New York Times' predictions against his generic prediction of Home Team 20, Visiting Team 17.  I think his generic prediction blew the NYT's predictions out of the water.

Which is to say, if you try to look like a genius and succeed, great, but more often you're going to look like you're just talking out your ass.

[Josh '99]

[quote Robb]Niagara is at .4888, but their remaining games include Air Force (5-15-1) twice, Wayne State (5-15-5) twice, and RMU (7-15-2) twice, so I don't see how they could possibly become a TUC, regardless of the outcomes of those games.[/quote]In other words, root for Niagara in the CHA tournament.

[Robb]

Looking at the comparisons we're losing (after all games on Feb 3):

UND: We're losing the comparison 2-1.  We lose RPI .5482 to .5419.  We're unlikely to take that back, though they do have 2 games remaining with UMD (8-17-4) and 2 with MTU (6-18-3), so there's a chance.  We appear pretty secure on TUC: .7143 for us and .3947 for them, but our .7143 is based on a 5-2 record, so we'd have to drop 6 games to TUCs to be below them at 5-8 (.3846).  Of course, their TUC record could improve, too, but if we drop 5 or 6 games to TUCs between now and selection, the UND comparison will be the least of our problems!  To win this comparison, we  have to get the common opponents back in our favor.  Our common opponents are Harvard, UMD, Northeastern, and MSU.  They're at 5-2 (.7143) and we're at 3-1-1 (.700).  They have 2 remaining vs. UMD and we have 1 vs. Harvard, plus possible playoff matchups with those same teams.  If UMD can take one game and we beat Harvard, they'd be at 6-3 (.6667) and we'd be at 4-1-1 (.7500), winning the comparison.  OTOH, if UND sweeps UMD, they'll be up to .7778, so we'd need to beat Harvard again in the ECAC tournament to get up to 5-1-1 (.7857).  Of course, UND could also meed UMD in the WCHA playoffs, so this one is going to be tight - go UMD!

MSU: lose the comparison 2-2 on RPI tiebreaker, .5447 to .5419.  MSU's RPI is definitely going to go up with 2 games remaining vs. Miami (19-5-4) and 2 vs. LSSU (14-8-5), so we probably can't take RPI.  For this comparison, our TUC is 4-1 (games vs. MSU don't count) to their 9-8-6, so we'd have to drop at least 4 TUC games to be below them - again, could happen, but it had better not.  Interestingly, we have no common opponents, just head-to-head with each other of 1-1, which obviously won't change.  I think MSU keeps the comparison, based on their RPI.  I guess we can hope that they tank badly enough for their record to drop to cancel out their RPI SOS bump, but that seems unlikely, and would probably be bad for some other comparisons for us (common opponents, etc).

UNO: we lose the comparison 2-1.  UNO has RPI at .5472 to .5419.  Our upcomming opponents are remarkably similar: several games against teams just over .500 (LSSU, NMU, and UMich for them, Gate, Clarkson, SLU, Harvard, Dartmouth, Union for us), but they have two stinkers (WMUx2) and we only have one, RPI.  This still seems like a tossup - we need to have a much better record in our last few games than UNO does.  Unfortunately, they look like they're flying right now (beat LSSU, no slouch, 8-0 tonight!).  Their TUC is closer at 12-8-2 (.5909) to our .7143.  On the surface, that looks secure, but remember that our TUC record is only 5-2.  Two losses to TUCs would put us at 5-4 (.5556).  Still, we should manage to keep TUC.  They have common opponents right now at 4-1 (.8000) to 2-1-1 (.6250).  The common opponents are MSU and Yale.  Even if we beat Yale 3 more times (1 RS and 2 playoffs), that only gets us up to 5-1-1 (.7857).  Therefore, we need help from MSU - they need to beat UNO in the playoffs for us to win common opponents.  RPI could still flip, too, so this one is probably still a tossup.

BU: lose the comparison 1-1 on RPI of .5501 to .5419.  BU still has Northeastern (2x, maybe 3 in the 'pot) and UMass on the schedule, but also Harvard, UNHx2, Vermontx2, and possibly BC in the 'pot.  Their RPI will probably rise, so I don't think we'll catch them.  Their record vs TUC is 8-5-2 (.6000), so it's pretty much the same story as UNO - as long as we don't tank horribly against our remaining TUCs, we'll probably keep this point.  Right now, common opponents is tied at 2-1-1.  The common opponents are Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth, and Northeastern.  We each have 3 more games currently scheduled (Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth for us and  Harvard and Northeasternx2 for them, plus could see Northeastern again in the 'pot, too.) vs. common opponents.  Northeastern (1-18-6) is as close to a sure thing as you can get and the Harvard game is in the BU invitational, so I'm guessing that BU will do better in their games (3-0, perhaps 4-0) than we will do vs.Harvard, RPI, and Dartmouth - we'll probably drop a point somewhere in there, and that will give the point to BU.  On the other hand, chances are that we'll see at least one of our common opponents in the ECAC playoffs, so even if we both sweep the remaining 3 games and both end up at 5-1-1, we'll have more of a chance to improve in the playoffs than BU will, so we could still take the point.  Either way, go Harvard and go Northeastern.

CC: we lose 2-1.  CC has RPI by .0132, so we probably won't get that.  We have TUC pretty secure (they're only at .4412), so we have to flip common opponents: Union, UMD, and MSU.  They're at 3-1 with 2 games remaining vs UMD.  We only have Union once, and we're at 1-2-1.  Even if UMD sweeps (yeah, right) and we beat Union, the best we do is tie at .500, so CC keeps the comparison 1-1 on RPI tiebreaker, unless we get another win vs. Union in the playoffs and CC doesn't beat UMD in the WCHA playoffs.  Either way, go UMD.

Miami: we lose 1-1 on RPI, where they are crushing us, .5772 to .5419.  Not gonna happen.  We have TUC at .7143, but they are right behind at 13-5-2 (.7000).  If we do worse than .700 in our remaining TUC games (Gate, Clarkson (for now), SLU, Dartmouth, and Harvard), this will flip back to Miami, so we need 7 points (3-1-1) in those games just to stay even.  If Miami goes better than .700 in THEIR remaining TUC games (all 6 of their remaining games are TUCs), then we'd need to do even better to keep this point.  Go Miami's opponents and go us.  Common opponents (Clarkson, SLU, RPI, MSU) are even at 2-0-1, we need to do better in our 3 remaining games (Clarkson, SLU, and RPI) than they do in theirs (MSUx2).  From above, I don't think we'll retake the MSU comparison anyway, so go MSU, which will help us keep TUC and win common opponents vs. Miami.

UMinn: we lose 2-1.  Their RPI is untouchable at .5958.  Their TUC is .6389, so we'll again need to be in the range of 3-1-1 or better vs. our remaining TUCs to keep this point.  They have common opponents (UMD, MSU, Union, Niagara) 3-1-2 to 3-2-1.  They have Duluth twice more and we have Union, so if we beat Union, that'll get us to 4-2-1 (.6429). so we'd need UMD to at least split to take UMinn down to 4-2-2 (.6250) to take the point.  If UMinn sweeps UMD to get to 5-1-2 (.7500), we can't catch them even if we beat Union 3 times to get to 6-2-1 (.7222), so we'd need UMD to beat UMinn in their playoffs.  Whatever - go UMD.  That's our only hope for flipping this comparison.

Wisconsin: we lose 2-1.  Again, an unassailable RPI of .6041, and a pretty similar story on TUCs: they're at .6842, so we need to go about 3-1-1 vs our remaining TUCs to keep this point.  If we can do this, this again comes down to common opponents: SLU, MSU, UMD.  They're 3-1, we're 2-1-1.  They have one game remaining vs. UMD and we have one with SLU.  Obviously, we need to win and they need to lose.  If Wisconsin beats UMD tomorrow night, they'll be at 4-1 (.8000) so we wouldn't be able to catch them even with 3 wins vs. SLU (5-1-1 = .7857).  We'd need to get 3 wins vs SLU and have UMD beat Wisconsin in the WCHAs.

So, to summarize my thoughts: The only comparison that seems mathematically out of reach is the MSU one - oh, to have that weekend in Nov to do over!  Our fate is almost entirely in UMD's hands - if they were to go on a tear right now and win out, we'd probably pick up comparisons vs Wisconsin, UMinn, and UND.  It looks like extra wins in the ECAC playoffs over Union, SLU, Clarkson, RPI, Harvard, or Yale have the potential to help us win some of these comparisons, so we want to stay away from Colgate, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Brown, and Princeton.

Teams to cheer for: UMD in a big way, MSU, Harvard and Northeastern (vs. BU)
Teams to cheer against: all of the teams we're losing to except MSU.

I think that's it. Time for ->  ::snore::

[Al DeFlorio]

[quote jmh30]In his NFL.com column this year, Gregg Easterbook (AKA Tuesday Morning Quarterback) took each game and matched the New York Times' predictions against his generic prediction of Home Team 20, Visiting Team 17.  I think his generic prediction blew the NYT's predictions out of the water.

Which is to say, if you try to look like a genius and succeed, great, but more often you're going to look like you're just talking out your ass.[/quote]
Maybe it's like index funds vs. managed.;-)

[jy3]

strong work. i am way too lazy to DO that :)LGR! (and too tired to type)
let us start it off with a nice tv win tonight! (no woofing)

[billhoward]

Wall Street Journal has measured stock pickers against a dartboard. They might have used a chimp, but it would have been insulting to one side.

[Ken \'70]

[quote Robb]Looking at the comparisons we're losing (after all games on Feb 3):

UND: We're losing the comparison 2-1.  We lose RPI .5482 to .5419.  We're unlikely to take that back, though they do have 2 games remaining with UMD (8-17-4) and 2 with MTU (6-18-3),
 
MSU: lose the comparison 2-2 on RPI tiebreaker, .5447 to .5419.  MSU's RPI is definitely going to go up with 2 games remaining vs. Miami (19-5-4) and 2 vs. LSSU (14-8-5), so we probably can't take RPI.  

UNO: we lose the comparison 2-1.  UNO has RPI at .5472 to .5419.  RPI could still flip, too, so this one is probably still a tossup.

BU: lose the comparison 1-1 on RPI of .5501 to .5419.  Right now, common opponents is tied at 2-1-1.  

Teams to cheer for: UMD in a big way, MSU, Harvard and Northeastern (vs. BU)
Teams to cheer against: all of the teams we're losing to except MSU.
[/quote]

Nice job.

I disagree with your asumptions about RPI vs. a number of teams.  Before yesterday's games Cornell's RPI was .5323, after beating Colgate it was .5419, an increase of .0096 in one game (using .33/.22/.11 bonus).  NoDak, BU, MSU and UNO are all within that range - or just one win away from being caught, or nearly so.  BU isn't playing tonight, so we could be ahead or close to it by the time they take the ice against Harvard on Monday (a win or tie by HA would have us winning all 3 criteria in the BU comparison).

We do need some help in the out-of-towns tonight, particularly CC beating NoDak.  Also LSSU def. UNO, and ND at least tieing MSU.  If all that happened, everything else being equal (which you can never count on), we'd be a #1 seed tomorrow morning with 24 comparisons.

Even when things don't shake out perfectly tonight, these 4 comparisons are all very flip-able.   It's all about RPI (and COP in BU's case), and the RPIs are really very close.

If we keep playing well PWR 4 or 5 is do-able, and there is no practical difference between the two at this point.

[Robb]

You're probably right.  I know I've been surprised in the past just how much movement there can be in RPI even at this point in the season.  When you say "no practical difference between the two at this point," you just mean that it's impossible to say whether good results would get us to 4 or 5, right?  Because there's a HUGE difference in being the #4 and #5 team - just look at us last year, having to go to Minny as the #5.  If you're the #4 seed, you get to go to a regional close to home, and there's a decent chance you'd be facing the AHA or CHA autobid in the first round.  A #5 seed can get sent to Siberia or Timbuktu and has a chance of playing the #9 team in the country - huge difference there.