Recruit stat updates

[pfibiger]

We were discussing this previously in a thread about Brendon Nash's first game, I figured we might as well move it to someplace a little easier to find. Everyone's season has gotten underway, and the lamps have been lit

Brendon Nash    : 0-1-1 in 2 games (15 PIMs)
Tony Romano     : 3-1-4 in 2 games
Justin Milo     : 4-0-4 in 3 games
Colin Greening  : 0-0-0 in 2 games
Blake Gallagher : 2-0-2 in 2 games

I guess the Buc Bowl is technically still the pre

[calgARI '07]

Some big time offensive players coming moreso than any class in recent memory.

[cornelldavy]

We have a recruit named Blake Gallagher? Was anyone else reminded of this skit?

http://www.comedycentral.com/sitewide/media_player/play.jhtml?itemId=11905

"Well, Blake Gallagher doesn't go out like no punk bitch with a mallet. Blake Gallagher, bitch! That's right!"

[Trotsky]

Blake Gallagher was the leading goal scorer on the Canadian Team Atlantic under-17 2004-05 team.  He had 7 goals in 6 games.

[pfibiger]

Updates after the 2nd week of games (USHL just opened, so only 1 game for Milo..and the Bobcats (Romano) played exhibition games this week)

Recruit           g-G-A-P
Brendon Nash    : 5-1-3-4
Tony Romano     : 2-3-1-4
Justin Milo     : 1-0-1-1
Colin Greening  : 5-0-2-2
Blake Gallagher : 5-5-0-5 

[KeithK]

The problem, of course, is that it's unclear how well scoring in juniors correlates with offensive output in college hockey.  I'd love to see a study where junior point and goal scoring is compared against freshman and career NCAA stats, ideally broken down by league and position (D vs. F).  If you took the last ten years you'd have a reasonably large sample size.

[cbuckser]

[Q]KeithK Wrote:
 I'd love to see a study where junior point and goal scoring is compared against freshman and career NCAA stats, ideally broken down by league and position (D vs. F).  If you took the last ten years you'd have a reasonably large sample size.[/q]

I also would love to have the data (and the statistical analysis).  My unscientific observations lead me to believe that there is a relatively high level of correlation (I am not suggesting that the r-squared is above .50, but I would be surprised if it were lower than .25), provided that the multiple regression controls for a player's age and health, as well as his junior league and position.   I would also expect that a player's college program would also have predictive value for his expected point output in college.  Including at least one variable for a player's size would also be a good idea.

[TCHL8842]

Well the problem with juniors and even comparing person to person in different junior leagues is that junior leagues are generally a different levels of competition.  If someone is ever going to correlate from juniors to college, they will have to take in account each league, which will make it vastly harder.  I hope these points will carry over to college, because then we should have a lot to look forward to.

[Jerseygirl]

There are also factors you can't measure, like burnout. I'm sure there are a sizeable amount of athletes out there who were outstanding in juniors, high school, prep leagues, etc., who got to college and decided it just wasn't as much fun anymore.

[KeithK]

[Q]There are also factors you can't measure, like burnout. I'm sure there are a sizeable amount of athletes out there who were outstanding in juniors, high school, prep leagues, etc., who got to college and decided it just wasn't as much fun anymore.[/q]Sure there are lots of unmeasureable factors.  There always are.  But if you have a large enough sample those factors will tend to average out, or at least the correlation coefficients will tell you how well the factors that you do know tend to predict the outcome.  That's why I'm talking about correlation and not a magic formula.

[Jerseygirl]

See, I am just a huge fan of lurking variables. Hated the math portion of statistics, loved the part where I got to explain the outcome and why it was or wasn't valid.

But probably my favorite part of (high school) stats class ever was when our teacher had us try to guess the suits of a deck of cards that our partner held up facing him or her, in an attempt to prove that ESP did not exist. Of course my partner and I developed a code where he'd signal the suit and I'd correctly guess it 80% of the time. Totally freaked everyone out.  

On a somewhat related note, with the compulsory/compulsive testing so richly endorsed by the U.S. Department of Education, why don't they control for things like desire to do well on the tests? I'd say that's a big enough variable to skew test results.

[KeithK]

[q]On a somewhat related note, with the compulsory/compulsive testing so richly endorsed by the U.S. Department of Education, why don't they control for things like desire to do well on the tests? I'd say that's a big enough variable to skew test results.[/q]It may be a signficant factor, but so what?  If you're too stupid to put the effort in and try to do well then you should reap what you've sown.

[pfibiger]

Even though we all understand that there isn't a perfect correlation between junior scoring and NCAA scoring, I'm updating this because Blake Gallagher is on a tear. He's scored in every single game he's played. He leads the SJHL in goals, points, and has 0 pims.

Recruit            g  G  A  P
Blake Gallagher : 08-10-02-12
Colin Greening  : 06-00-03-03
Justin Milo     : 01-00-01-01
Brendon Nash    : 05-01-03-04
Tony Romano     : 02-03-01-04

[KeithK]

[q]Even though we all understand that there isn't a perfect correlation between junior scoring and NCAA scoring, I'm updating this because[/q]No reason required to post stuff like this.  Just because I don't know exactly what this means for next year and beyond doesn't mean I don't want to see the numbers.  Thanks.

[calgARI '07]

Greening had a big preseason but has really struggled out of the gate.