RPI primer (brackets for dummies): Why #2/#3 Cornell may seed lower

billhoward · February 26, 2005, 02:07:32 PM

Someone skilled at RPI who's sitting around waiting for the Clarkson faceoff might want to explain in Cliff's Notes form what RPI is and why Cornell despite being ranked #2 or #3 in the polls is in danger of not being one of the top four teams in the tournament. Linking them to the bracketology column would be cruel and unusual punishment and not that illuminating for rank novices. (I created a deconstruction of one of the recent columns but decided to hold off on posting; it seemed like beating up on well-intentioned people for no reason other than to inflict pain and suffering on them, even if they do that to the readers every week.)

It might help to explain why Cornell with such a lofty record still isn't perceived as such a powerful (ie top four for postseason) team and what goes into RPI besides how many you won and lost. And it's fascinating thinkyou might improve your chances by losing to teams hovering right around .500. Who's game to explain?

jtwcornell91 · February 26, 2005, 03:02:49 PM

Polls are irrelevant to the seeding process.
Winning percentage is not the whole story; Cornell has played a weaker schedule than the other top teams, which RPI takes into consideration.
RPI is one part your winning percentage, two parts your opponents' winning percentage and one part their opponents' winning percentage. This is far from the best way to account for strength of schedule, but it's better than nothing.
There is also an adjustment to RPI rewarding teams for winning games against top-15 (according to unadjusted RPI) teams outside their conference. The bonus is greater for wins on the road and less for wins at home.

Do you want the highlights of PWR as well? That's what's actually used to do the seeding, not RPI alone.

upperdeck · February 26, 2005, 03:06:43 PM

but public perception may be interesting.. the PWR gets beat on every year.. but not knowing the numbers whats the highest ranked team that hasnt rcvd a #1 seed since there are 4 of them.. we are pretty much locked by PWR but its possible that the top 2-3 teams could each lose 2-3 more games before the seedings..

DeltaOne81 · February 26, 2005, 03:11:47 PM

I won't link the the bracketology column, but I will link to:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/rpi.php - see the explanation at the bottom

and

http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=pwrexplanation - this is well written and not too technical, it explains how PWR is determined, etc.

As for your question, Bill, if Cornell is ranked in the top 4 in the nation in PWR, then they *will* be a number 1 seed by the committee. Now, there is the "quality win" bonus that we don't know the value of, but other than that, what you see if what we'll get.

If you mean why people think we shouldn't be, well, see "strength of schedule".

CornellChris · February 26, 2005, 05:03:17 PM

Ah, finally! A "for dummies" thread. Now I can finally come out of the closet and admit that for the last few weeks I've been trying to figure out (with little success) what "TUC" stands for. What do those three little letters mean? I've deduced that it's definitely something a team wants to be. You gotta give me credit for that!

-"Curious" Chris '03

Jacob '06 · February 26, 2005, 05:04:21 PM

[Q]CornellChris Wrote:

Ah, finally! A "for dummies" thread. Now I can finally come out of the closet and admit that for the last few weeks I've been trying to figure out (with little success) what "TUC" stands for. What do those three little letters mean? I've deduced that it's definitely something a team wants to be. You gotta give me credit for that!

-"Curious" Chris '03
[/q]

Teams under consideration aka teams with an RPI above 0.500

CornellChris · February 26, 2005, 05:08:03 PM

QuoteTeams under consideration aka teams with an RPI above 0.500

It all makes sense now! Many thanks Jacob!

-"No Longer Curious" Chris '03

ganderson · February 26, 2005, 09:41:02 PM

Since we've set up a for dummies thread, when people say 5-3-1 bonus, do they mean
.0005, .0003, .0001
or
.0050, .0030, .0010
?

I'm just not getting the same results everyone else is.

DeltaOne81 · February 26, 2005, 09:42:08 PM

The latter - .0050, .0030, .0010

its always in the thousands. Anything higher is just too much, lower is barely anything

Dpperk29 · February 27, 2005, 08:03:45 PM

so being a TUC is good or bad?

finchphil · February 27, 2005, 08:10:27 PM

It depends. We want SLU and Brown to stay as TUCs because we are 4-0 against them and it helps our comparisions.... a lot. There are other teams on the bubble of being TUCs that, if they are TUCs, will help our opponents in the race for a #1 seed.

Will · February 27, 2005, 08:13:35 PM

[Q]Dpperk29 Wrote:

so being a TUC is good or bad? [/q]

Good, I suppose. However, it's not necessarily good for already TUC Team A if Team B is also TUC. Since one of the criteria of the Pairwise Rankings is Record vs. TUCs, each team basically wants all its wins to come from TUCs and all its losses to come from non-TUCs. Put more simply: wins against TUCs, good; losses to TUCs, bad.

KeithK · February 27, 2005, 09:17:27 PM

First and foremost, TUC means "Teams Under Consideration". That is, under consideration for the tournament. If you're not a TUC (RPI >= .5000) you can't get an at-large bid (though you can still get a conference auto-bid). So yes, being a TUC is unequivocably a good thing.

jtwcornell91 · February 27, 2005, 10:11:24 PM

[Q]KeithK Wrote:

First and foremost, TUC means "Teams Under Consideration". That is, under consideration for the tournament. If you're not a TUC (RPI >= .5000) you can't get an at-large bid (though you can still get a conference auto-bid). So yes, being a TUC is unequivocably a good thing.[/q]

Conversely, if you get an auto-bid, you automatically become a TUC, even if your RPI is below .500. So root for Canisius or Sacred Heart to win the AH tournament.

jy3 · February 27, 2005, 10:23:18 PM

[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote:

[Q2]KeithK Wrote:

First and foremost, TUC means "Teams Under Consideration". That is, under consideration for the tournament. If you're not a TUC (RPI >= .5000) you can't get an at-large bid (though you can still get a conference auto-bid). So yes, being a TUC is unequivocably a good thing.[/Q]
Conversely, if you get an auto-bid, you automatically become a TUC, even if your RPI is below .500. So root for Canisius or Sacred Heart to win the AH tournament.[/q]

this is something that i have mentioned for months but no one seems to care. things are quite tight in bunches in the rankings...no one seems to think that who gets the bids from aha and cha will change the rankings, but the two teams above doing so would add a win vs tuc for cornell. that would help things