ECAC Guide for the Perplexed

[Trotsky]

Dartmouth picked up the extra point against Clarkson in the shootout.

[Trotsky]

Interesting groupings in the NPI going into tonight:

Code Select Expand

  8 Drt
  9 Cor v Qpc
 10 Qpc @ Cor

 19 Prn
 20 Uni

 26 Clk @ Hvd
 27 Hvd v Clk


[marty]

Interesting groupings in the NPI going into tonight:

Code Select Expand

  8 Drt
  9 Cor v Qpc
 10 Qpc @ Cor

 19 Prn
 20 Uni

 26 Clk @ Hvd
 27 Hvd v Clk


20 behind 62 by a score of 2-1 with 13 minutes left in the 3rd.

[Trotsky]

Colgate shut out Princeton; that helps.

Harvard edged Clarkson 2-1 at Bright on a ppg inside 3 minutes to play in regulation.

By derp pct:

Code Select Expand

.788 Drt
.778 Qpc
.700 Cor
.636 Hvd
.611 Prn




[BearLover]

There's a sizable gap between Quinnipiac and Cornell. I thought Q being without one of their top forwards and their top defensive defenseman might narrow that gap, but they still outshot and outchanced Cornell at Lynah. So, clear edge to them IMO. I guess having professional players on your team is a nice advantage. I would expect Q to get the 1-seed.

It also seems likely that Cornell is better than Dartmouth, Harvard, Princeton, Clarkson, and Union, but I'm not sure of the gap there. It's not a great sign that we've been in dogfights at home against the likes of Omaha, Alaska, and Princeton. But our talent and results combined suggest to me we're better than these other ECAC teams. Next weekend will be interesting.

[Trotsky]

NPI after That Never Happened:

Code Select Expand

  8 Drt
  9 Qpc
 11 Cor
 21 Hvd
 25 Prn
 28 Uni
 31 Clk
 47 Cgt
 52 Yal
 55 RPI
 57 Brn
 63 SLU

[Trotsky]

This coming week's contenders' games:

Monday, as Harvard prepares to lose the Beanpot in 2 weeks:

Uni @ Hvd

The weekend:

Hvd @ Cgt
Drt @ Cor

Hvd @ Cor
Drt @ Cgt

The North Country home-and-home is also this weekend.

After this weekend the differences in GP conference-wide will have been almost entirely evened out.  You know how we have banked "DP at hand"?  This weekend is our chance to cash them in.

[Trotsky]

Welp, Hahvahd just built an authoritative wall between 5 and 6.

DP%:

Code Select Expand

1 .788 Drt
2 .778 Qpc
3 .700 Cor
4 .667 Hvd
5 .611 Prn
------------------
6 .500 "The Movie Star and the Rest..."

[Trotsky]

Since travel pairs began in 1985, you can count on one hand the number of times the Dartmouth game was as important as Fish N Fowl.

Also: we have not swept since 2019.  The time has come for someone to put their foot down.  And that foot is us.

[Trotsky]

After tonight, by DP%:

Code Select Expand

.778 Qpc
.750 Drt
.697 Cor
.692 Hvd
.611 Prn
DP blown (roughly the equivalent of losses behind in MLB):

Code Select Expand

  8 Qpc
  9 Drt
 10 Cor
 12 Hvd
 14 Prn

[Trotsky]

NPI right now:

Code Select Expand

  9 Cor
 10 Qpc
 12 Drt
------
 19 Hvd

[Trotsky]

ECAC DP%:

Code Select Expand

.778 Qpc
.722 Cor
.692 Drt
.643 Hvd
.611 Prn

[Trotsky]

Because I know it is universally loved and respected, PlayoffStatus.com odds as of today:

ECAC RS Finish

Code Select Expand

Team    1   2   3   4
Qpc    53  25  13   6
Drt    11  24  28  22
Hvd     3  13  24  32
Cor    31  32  22  10
Prn     1   4   9  18

ECAC Tournament Finish

Code Select Expand

Team   SF   F   1
Qpc    88  56  32
Cor    82  48  26
Drt    69  34  17
Hvd    57  24  10
Prn    35  13   5
Uni    27  11   5
Cgt    17   6   2
Clk    15   5   2

NCAA Seed Band

Code Select Expand

Team    1   2   3   4  Out
Qpc    13  46  28   6   6
Cor    13  35  26   8  15
Drt     4  22  28  15  31
Hvd    <1   3  12  12  72

NCAA Tournament Finish

Code Select Expand

Team   QF  SF   F   1
Qpc    49  23  11   5
Cor    42  19   8   4
Drt    29  12   5   2
Hvd    10   4   1   1


[andyw2100]

Because I know it is universally loved and respected, PlayoffStatus.com odds as of today:



NCAA Seed Band

Code Select Expand

Team    1  2  3  4  Out
Qpc    13  46  28  6  6
Cor    13  35  26  8  15
Drt    4  22  28  15  31
Hvd    <1  3  12  12  72

I know there's rounding, but even so, something seems wrong with the NCAA Seed Band. (Please see screenshot annotated badly, attached.)

[Trotsky]

There are 3 issues.

1. Rounding.
2. I counted <1 seeds as 0, probably should have used 1.
3. I no add good.