Polls and NPI 2026

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

There's a chance I'll have to be out of town on the regional weekend, so I am convinced we will wind up in Sioux Falls just to spite me.

Same for me if Albany.

Same! That weekend is the end of my son's spring break / family vacation and the start of baseball season. The Pirates open at Citi so I'm going to both weekend games already (but will miss Skenes).

How many times have we not been placed in Allentown?  Too many.

[Weder]

There's a chance I'll have to be out of town on the regional weekend, so I am convinced we will wind up in Sioux Falls just to spite me.

Same for me if Albany.

Same! That weekend is the end of my son's spring break / family vacation and the start of baseball season. The Pirates open at Citi so I'm going to both weekend games already (but will miss Skenes).

How many times have we not been placed in Allentown?  Too many.

Allentown is an easy drive for me, so I agree!

[Trotsky]

9s across the board today in USCHO, USA Hockey, and NPI.

[stereax]

9s across the board today in USCHO, USA Hockey, and NPI.

[Weder]

9s across the board today in USCHO, USA Hockey, and NPI.

9s across the board today in USCHO, USA Hockey, and NPI.

[adamw]

They have to win the HEA playoffs to get in. If they get in, they'll be a 4 seed. If we stay at 9 (highest 3 seed), we're probably going to be vs Denver, probably one of the Michigans, and Bentley or whichever AHA team wants to be cannon fodder. (And if we're against Denver, it's almost certainly gonna be in Colorado.)

Not "almost certainly" - FYI - but it literally is a requirement that it will be.

[stereax]

They have to win the HEA playoffs to get in. If they get in, they'll be a 4 seed. If we stay at 9 (highest 3 seed), we're probably going to be vs Denver, probably one of the Michigans, and Bentley or whichever AHA team wants to be cannon fodder. (And if we're against Denver, it's almost certainly gonna be in Colorado.)

Not "almost certainly" - FYI - but it literally is a requirement that it will be.

Wait, for real? I thought it was something that wasn't like... required, but almost certain due to geographic stuff.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

There's a chance I'll have to be out of town on the regional weekend, so I am convinced we will wind up in Sioux Falls just to spite me.

Same for me if Albany.

Same! That weekend is the end of my son's spring break / family vacation and the start of baseball season. The Pirates open at Citi so I'm going to both weekend games already (but will miss Skenes).

How many times have we not been placed in Allentown?  Too many.

Allentown is an easy drive for me, so I agree!

The PPL Center is only 2 miles from me.  I'd be able to sleep in my own bed.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

They have to win the HEA playoffs to get in. If they get in, they'll be a 4 seed. If we stay at 9 (highest 3 seed), we're probably going to be vs Denver, probably one of the Michigans, and Bentley or whichever AHA team wants to be cannon fodder. (And if we're against Denver, it's almost certainly gonna be in Colorado.)

Not "almost certainly" - FYI - but it literally is a requirement that it will be.

Wait, for real? I thought it was something that wasn't like... required, but almost certain due to geographic stuff.

Nope.  If a team is the "host" they must be seeded in that regional...assuming they make the tournament, that is.

[BearLover]

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-mens-womens-hockey-ranking-calculators/51511/what-if-the-2026-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament-npi-predictor-frozen-four

Pretty neat tool here. I can get us up to #5 comfortably (which of course involves just about every result breaking our way).

I also played with some worst-case scenarios. I only spent a couple minutes, but I was finding it hard for UMass, UConn, or Augustana to pass us in NPI without winning their conference (which renders them passing us in NPI moot). In fact, I wasn't finding a way we could miss without OSU winning the B10. I'll play around more later, but is anyone able to find a scenario in which we miss that does NOT involve OSU winning the B10?

[stereax]

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-mens-womens-hockey-ranking-calculators/51511/what-if-the-2026-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament-npi-predictor-frozen-four

Pretty neat tool here. I can get us up to #5 comfortably (which of course involves just about every result breaking our way).

I also played with some worst-case scenarios. I only spent a couple minutes, but I was finding it hard for UMass, UConn, or Augustana to pass us in NPI without winning their conference (which renders them passing us in NPI moot). In fact, I wasn't finding a way we could miss without OSU winning the B10. I'll play around more later, but is anyone able to find a scenario in which we miss that does NOT involve OSU winning the B10?

This is a lot of fun to play around with!

The lowest I can get us, provided it's not OSU in the B10, is 13. We know the AHA goes autobid only, we know the NCHC will have a winner who's top 16. I can't get a sim for the CCHA to be a 2-bid conference; it looks like HEA will be 2-bid as well (Prov and whoever comes out of the HEA gauntlet for playoffs). Follow the money, you've got Cornell in basically no matter what.

[upprdeck]

if you get WMU to lose to CC in 2 games there is a path for Cornell to 4th

[BearLover]

Played around a bit more and found some interesting stuff. Namely, I don't think we can miss the NCAAs unless B10, HE, and ECAC are ALL won by someone behind us in NPI. That is to say, if (1) OSU doesn't win the B10, OR (2) Dartmouth or Quinnipiac wins the ECAC, OR (3) Providence wins HE, then we are in the NCAAs.

But here's the interesting part: our series vs Harvard does not itself dictate whether we make it, unless we sweep them. I found a scenario where we beat Harvard in 3 games and STILL miss the NCAAs, if we lose in the semis and basically everything else goes wrong.

If we sweep Harvard, we're locked. If we don't, we can still possibly miss.

I suspect the Playoff Odds website, which says we have above a 99% shot conditional on us getting swept, is wrong. (Probably because it underrates the odds of an upset.)

[BearLover]

if you get WMU to lose to CC in 2 games there is a path for Cornell to 4th

CC got eliminated last weekend

[upprdeck]

I was just playing with the tool.. Didnt really look at what has happened already.