Polls and NPI 2026

andyw2100 · February 28, 2026, 09:08:40 AM

We're 11th, but closer to 6th than to 12th.

BearLover · February 28, 2026, 10:51:45 AM

Yeah, looking at the numbers some more, I do suspect we are almost locked with a win tonight. To miss at that point, we'd have to lose both games in the ECAC quarterfinals, at home against a pretty weak team, AND have other results break against us.

Dartmouth is probably in even if they lose out (lose tonight AND lose both quarterfinals games). It will be their first NCAA appearance in 40 years.

Trotsky · February 28, 2026, 11:30:09 AM

Quote from: BearLover on February 28, 2026, 10:51:45 AMYeah, looking at the numbers some more, I do suspect we are almost locked with a win tonight. To miss at that point, we'd have to lose both games in the ECAC quarterfinals, at home against a pretty weak team, AND have other results break against us.

Dartmouth is probably in even if they lose out (lose tonight AND lose both quarterfinals games). It will be their first NCAA appearance in 40 years.

Closer to 50 than 40!

To put it further into perspective, 5 teams that left to form Hockey East in 1985 appeared in the NC$$s as ECAC members more recently than Dartmouth.

Trotsky · February 28, 2026, 11:35:38 AM

Why is the NPI so much more stable than the PWR late in the season? Is it simply the removal of the pairwise comparison itself?

adamw · February 28, 2026, 08:12:01 PM

Quote from: Trotsky on February 28, 2026, 11:35:38 AMWhy is the NPI so much more stable than the PWR late in the season? Is it simply the removal of the pairwise comparison itself?

I'm not sure that's entirely true. After most of the non-RPI criteria were removed from the Pairwise, things were pretty stable in recent years. Basically the Pairwise was almost entirely dominated by the RPI component, and everything else became irrelevant, so the quirks were all gone. So in effect, there really was no comparison stuff anymore for the last 10 years or what not.

NPI may be slightly more stable - but I don't know yet. I largely think it's perception. I've had some people say to me the opposite. So I dunno.

stereax · February 28, 2026, 10:36:10 PM

Us winning (and Dartmouth losing) hops us up to 9th as of right now!

Trotsky · February 28, 2026, 10:44:22 PM

Quote from: stereax on February 28, 2026, 10:36:10 PMUs winning (and Dartmouth losing) hops us up to 9th as of right now!

Great news though to be fair to the prior post we are much closer to 11th (0.19) than 8th (0.58).

But still... great news!

Trotsky · February 28, 2026, 10:46:05 PM

Quote from: adamw on February 28, 2026, 08:12:01 PM
Quote from: Trotsky on February 28, 2026, 11:35:38 AMWhy is the NPI so much more stable than the PWR late in the season? Is it simply the removal of the pairwise comparison itself?

I'm not sure that's entirely true. After most of the non-RPI criteria were removed from the Pairwise, things were pretty stable in recent years. Basically the Pairwise was almost entirely dominated by the RPI component, and everything else became irrelevant, so the quirks were all gone. So in effect, there really was no comparison stuff anymore for the last 10 years or what not.

NPI may be slightly more stable - but I don't know yet. I largely think it's perception. I've had some people say to me the opposite. So I dunno.

Thanks. It is likely just my perception.

stereax · February 28, 2026, 11:21:53 PM

Quote from: Trotsky on February 28, 2026, 10:44:22 PM
Quote from: stereax on February 28, 2026, 10:36:10 PMUs winning (and Dartmouth losing) hops us up to 9th as of right now!
Great news though to be fair to the prior post we are much closer to 11th (0.19) than 8th (0.58).

But still... great news!

Yeah, there are clumps and the 9-11ish spot is a big one... but GREAT NEWS NONETHELESS!

BearLover · March 01, 2026, 12:16:01 AM

NCAA tournament is nearly locked. That would make 8 tournies in 9 seasons, pretty amazing. Probably just Quinnipiac and Denver who can say the same?

The team hasn't looked that impressive this season tbh. Tonight, CHN says our xG was 1.5 and Clarkson's was 2.1. I know CHN's xG stat is flawed, but even going by more traditional metrics like SOG...shots were even, at home, on senior night, against a middle-of-the-road team.

But still, the team has exceeded my expectations and I would give Casey an A so far.

pjd8 · March 01, 2026, 03:41:17 AM

Quote from: BearLover on March 01, 2026, 12:16:01 AMNCAA tournament is nearly locked. That would make 8 tournies in 9 seasons, pretty amazing. Probably just Quinnipiac and Denver who can say the same?

Not even Quinnipiac. They missed in 2018 and 2020. So only Denver. Not BC or BU or any of the Big 10 schools.

And the year we missed was 2022, when we returned from a year off. Not bad.

Jim Hyla · March 01, 2026, 10:48:20 AM

Quote from: pjd8 on March 01, 2026, 03:41:17 AM
Quote from: BearLover on March 01, 2026, 12:16:01 AMNCAA tournament is nearly locked. That would make 8 tournies in 9 seasons, pretty amazing. Probably just Quinnipiac and Denver who can say the same?

Not even Quinnipiac. They missed in 2018 and 2020. So only Denver. Not BC or BU or any of the Big 10 schools.

And the year we missed was 2022, when we returned from a year off. Not bad.

We should figure out a way to get this stat ingrained in every, even marginal, CU hockey fan.

Love what you have. The vast majority of schools would die for that kind of program.

BearLover · March 01, 2026, 11:23:38 AM

To me, the mark of a good season is that we make the NCAAs. That's because it means we either won our league championship or won a ton of other games.

Cornell hockey doesn't get enough recognition for being consistently very good.

Of course, the more NCAA tournies we make, the longer grows our streak of getting in but not making the frozen four. If we do end up then NCAAs this year, as is very likely at this point, we'll be in a similar position to most seasons post-pandemic where we need to win a couple of 40-45% weighted coin flips to make the froze four. This is a good team, but we are going to be underdogs against anyone we play in the NCAAs (barring a major upset in the 4v1 game in our bracket).

When I watch this team, we don't look dominant. And when I look at the metrics, we certainly don't look dominant. We look decidedly average 5x5. But we have gotten strong goaltending and pretty good special teams, and if you get those things you can paper over other flaws.

As we won the ECAC the past two seasons, and as we do not need to win the championship to make the NCAAs, I view winning the ECAC tournament as more of a luxury this season. I hope we win and will complain if we don't, but there's a lot less pressure this time.

This post will age very badly if we lose both games in the quarterfinals AND then hit our 1-in-25(?) odds of everything else breaking against us such that we miss the NCAAs.

pjd8 · March 01, 2026, 05:36:38 PM

Quote from: BearLover on March 01, 2026, 11:23:38 AMWhen I watch this team, we don't look dominant.

I tend to agree, though we've certainly had our moments. I think that's a function of having so many freshmen.

And yet here we are, ninth in NPI, an Ivy title, and third in the ECAC having beaten everyone at least once, so we can do it again. Think what will happen as this freshman class matures.

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

The Rancor · March 01, 2026, 10:02:57 PM

Quote from: pjd8 on March 01, 2026, 05:36:38 PM
Quote from: BearLover on March 01, 2026, 11:23:38 AMWhen I watch this team, we don't look dominant.

I tend to agree, though we've certainly had our moments. I think that's a function of having so many freshmen.

And yet here we are, ninth in NPI, an Ivy title, and third in the ECAC having beaten everyone at least once, so we can do it again. Think what will happen as this freshman class matures.

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

The only team we didn't beat at least once this season is BU- the only one e that we played once.