ECAC 2026 Predictions and Pre-season Polls Omnibus

[Trotsky]

I'll start.

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           [b]W      L      T      Pts[/b]

[hr]
 1  Quinnipiac         16 4 2 34
 2  [color=#b31313]Cornell[/color]         12 6 4 28
 3  Clarkson         12 8 2 26
 4  Colgate         11 9 2 24
 5  Union         11 9 2 24
 6  Harvard         11 9 2 24
 7  Dartmouth         10 9 3 23
 8  Yale          7 12 3 17
 9  Brown          7 13 2 16
10  Princeton          7 13 2 16
11  St. Lawrence          7 13 2 16
12  RPI                  8 14 0 16



[ursusminor]

Deleted because it doesn't make sense now.

[Trotsky]

Hyperlinks are your friend.

[ursusminor]

Hyperlinks are your friend.

Not those on ELynah when one is colorblind. :-D

Thanks.

[BearLover]

Pretty sure I asked the same question last year, but if I'm understanding correctly, isn't the "future" category mislabeled as it is looking at the "past" ten seasons?

[Trotsky]

Pretty sure I asked the same question last year, but if I'm understanding correctly, isn't the "future" category mislabeled as it is looking at the "past" ten seasons?

Once upon a time, the Predictions weighted Past and Future factors based on the percentage of returning points and goaltender minutes:

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The Future
Secondly,  we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming player: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.


The idea was intuitive enough.  A team would regress towards its traditional norms to the extent it was losing a large percentage of playing time and thus replicating its ordinary recruiting level, while it would maintain its more recent level of success -- good or ill -- to the extent it was returning a large percentage of playing time.

That calculation was:

1) A PITA
2) Not a great theoretical metric for the phenomenon it attempted to isolate
3) Not producing good predictions, and especially
4) See 1)

So I killed the percentage weighting.  In doing so, yes, I accept that I eviscerated the Past vs Future division of the factors.

I'll think about changing some names.  It is a fair critique; thank you.

[Trotsky]

Updated.  Tell me what you think.  You may have to right-click and "Reload frame."

[Trotsky]

Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

[Trotsky]

Hyperlinks are your friend.

Not those on ELynah when one is colorblind. :-D

Thanks.

Whoops, sorry.  Here: http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Predictions.html

[ursusminor]

Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...

BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.

[Trotsky]

Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...

BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.

Did the administration change?

[marty]

Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...

BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.

Did the administration change?

The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).  

Of course the only reason EVERYONE hated her is because she is a height challenged woman of color.  But yeah, replaced by an alum that actually seems to care about the school and isn't afraid to casually talk to the students ON CAMPUS WITHOUT A SECURITY ENTOURAGE.

[Iceberg]

It also helps that they have a newer AD along with the newer president

[Trotsky]

Did the administration change?

The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).

It's nice.

https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/84bb229b347b75f39a632fdabf03b868-cc_ft_768.webp;

Looks like RPI made a killing on the sale (bought $600k sold $1.1M just 5 years later).  Good for them.

From a perusal of a lot of different social media posts it appears your dislike for her was... not unique.  "Cunt of Biblical proportions" was one of the more kind assessments.

[stereax]

Did the administration change?

The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).

It's nice.

https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/84bb229b347b75f39a632fdabf03b868-cc_ft_768.webp;

Looks like RPI made a killing on the sale (bought $600k sold $1.1M just 5 years later).  Good for them.

From a perusal of a lot of different social media posts it appears your dislike for her was... not unique.  "Cunt of Biblical proportions" was one of the more kind assessments.

I'm stealing that one to use later.