Cornell lacrosse 2025

Started by billhoward, August 02, 2024, 10:39:13 AM

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CU77

Simulation of games is not based on RPI, it's based on lacrossereference's own computer ranking system. Then the simulated game results are used to compute end-of-season RPI.

Of course none of this really matters. The team needs to win the games. They are a heavy favorite against Brown and Dartmouth, a slight favorite against Cuse, a moderate favorite against Harvard. See eg the Massey win probabilities: https://masseyratings.com/clax2025/1910

It's also important that our opponents win as many of their other games as possible against our non-opponents. So root for Cuse against Notre Dame on Saturday!

upprdeck

to get to 3-3 they could lose 3 of next 4 then win the IVY

or got 2-2 and win first Ivy game

beating Brown would make all the loses to ranked teams most of the time

going 1-4 or 2-3 is the outcome to avoid.

BearLover

Quote from: CU77Simulation of games is not based on RPI, it's based on lacrossereference's own computer ranking system. Then the simulated game results are used to compute end-of-season RPI.

Of course none of this really matters. The team needs to win the games. They are a heavy favorite against Brown and Dartmouth, a slight favorite against Cuse, a moderate favorite against Harvard. See eg the Massey win probabilities: https://masseyratings.com/clax2025/1910

It's also important that our opponents win as many of their other games as possible against our non-opponents. So root for Cuse against Notre Dame on Saturday!
Thanks, that's helpful background. For college hockey the publicly available projections all seem to be based on RPI and are therefore not very useful. Interesting college lacrosse has more developed public projections.  

In any case, Cornell will head into the NCAA tournament (well, let's hope they will) after having played a very difficult sequence of opponents. It shouldn't prepare them well.

billhoward

Cornell is #1 across the board on D1 college lax polls, Monday 3/31, this after Cornell's 8th game:

[b]USILA 2025 Men's Coaches Division I Poll - Week 8[/b]
Rank team      1sts  Pts
1. Cornell       23  589
2. Maryland       4  565
3. TOSU           3  534
4. Princeton         514
5. Notre Dame        480
Also: 6 Army, 7 Syracuse, 9 Richmond, 10 Penn State, 11 Harvard, 15 BU, 18 Dartmouth, Colgate (also receiving).  

[b]Media Poll[/b]
Rank team      1sts  Pts
1. Cornell     18    491
2. Maryland     5    472
3. TOSU         1    444
4. Princeton    1    441
5, Notre Dame        394
Also: 6 Army, 7 Syracuse, 9 Penn State, 10 Richmond, 11 Harvard, 15 BU, 18 Dartmouth, Colgate (also receiving).

Quint Kessenich, https://laxallstars.com/quint-kessenichs-top-20-march-31-2025/

Quote from: Quint Kessenich's Top 20: March 31, 20251) Cornell
Big Red (7-1) laid the hammer down on Penn with a 15-5 win, jumping out to a 7-1 and 10-1 halftime lead before coasting to the finish. With this win, Cornell maintains control of its destiny in the Ivy League race and is on track to host the conference tournament. The trio of Michael Long, CJ Kirst, and Ryan Goldstein continues to dominate as arguably the nation's best attack unit. If the Big Red can win face-offs and get solid goaltending, they might be impossible to beat.

CJ Kirst is averaging more than five goals per game while shooting an absurd 58%. The passing game has been elite—Cornell leads the country with 10.6 assists per game. Goalie Wyatt Knust is giving them more than 13 saves per contest and has been steady when called upon. Cornell will host Albany on Tuesday before traveling to Brown on April 5.
Kessenich's top five is: 1. Cornell, 2. Maryland, 3. Princeton, then 4. Ohio State, ND, 6 Syracuse, 7. Penn Stare, 8. Army. More love for We Were than the other polls.

billhoward

The NCAA gotta give equal emphasis to goals per game average or goals per season average to be fair to old timey players who only got in three varsity seasons, to longer seasons versus fifty years ago, and maybe to recognize schools (Ivies) who play fewer games.

Per Wiki, which has it both by season, with PPG, it is
 3. Mike French '76, 6.30 PPG
 4. Jim Trenz '74, 6.21
 8. Tim Goldtein '88, 5.79 (father of Ryan)
15. Eamon McEneaney '77, 5.57
19. Jeff Teat '20. 5.25

BearLover

Quote from: billhowardThe NCAA gotta give equal emphasis to goals per game average or goals per season average to be fair to old timey players who only got in three varsity seasons, to longer seasons versus fifty years ago, and maybe to recognize schools (Ivies) who play fewer games.

Per Wiki, which has it both by season, with PPG, it is
 3. Mike French '76, 6.30 PPG
 4. Jim Trenz '74, 6.21
 8. Tim Goldtein '88, 5.79 (father of Ryan)
15. Eamon McEneaney '77, 5.57
19. Jeff Teat '20. 5.25
Also, it should discount records held by players who took advantage of the fifth year from COVID eligibility.

CU77

Quote from: BearLoverFor college hockey the publicly available projections all seem to be based on RPI
Massey does game-by-game projections for college hockey (and pretty much every sport out there) based on his own proprietary rating system, and then uses those to compute expected end-of-regular-season record, but does not go further than that into pairwise etc.

CU77


jjanow99

Syracuse on the way to beating ND. Their face off guy having a big game. Cornell is going to have to pick up their game next week to win this one.

arugula

Quote from: CU77Win over Brown drops the team's RPI from #9 to #10:

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d1-men

At this rate we'll be out of the tournament entirely.

djk26

Quote from: arugula
Quote from: CU77Win over Brown drops the team's RPI from #9 to #10:

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d1-men

At this rate we'll be out of the tournament entirely.

I know this is sarcasm, but we've got a real chance to improve our RPI in the weeks ahead.  Brown is #41, but Syracuse is #7, Harvard is #6 and even Darmouth is pretty solid at #18.

(This may be a little out of date--the website I am looking at for RPI still has #2 Maryland's record at 8-1...and they just lost to #22 Rutgers.)
David Klesh ILR '02

Tom Lento

Quote from: BearLover
Quote from: abmarks
Quote from: BearLover
Quote from: George64
Quote from: billhowardBuczek seems a coach others would want to lure away. A WAG would be that he might stay in Ithaca for a salary package in the $200K-$250K and maybe bonus money: win Ivy RS, win ILT, winning 1-4 rounds of the NCAA tournament. Some of this might want to be alumni-funded.

Other estimates?

Universities usually draw down about 5 percent of the endowment principal to fund a position. So, to pay Buczek $200k per year, plus benefits of say $40k, would mean the Richard M. Moran Head Coach endowment would need $4.8 million on hand.  Certainly possible.  More than s few lax players end up on Wall Street.
I feel like we need to do a better job fundraising if we're losing lacrosse coaches to Johns Hopkins.

Historically speaking, Hopkins is by far the more prestigious lax program.  Coaches don't leave Hopkins to come to Cornell, but they do go the other way.
Not "by far." Cornell is a lacrosse blue blood, easily one of the top 10 historical lacrosse programs, and has been competitive for a national title almost every season the past 25 years. Hopkins is a top 5 all time program more prestigious, but not so much more prestigious that we should be losing coaches to them. Anyway, the point is if we ponied up the money to pay coaches then we wouldn't be losing them to Hopkins.

Lacrosse is to Hopkins as hockey is to NoDak, so it really is something special over there, so when coaches leave almost any job for Hopkins I doubt money is the dominant consideration (and it would not at all surprise me if Hopkins paid at or near top of band regardless). As it happens Hopkins has hired its last two coaches (Pietramala and Milliman) from Cornell, so folks around here are maybe a bit more sensitive to the comparisons between the programs. FWIW I suspect that neither of those cases was about either money or prestige, really - Pietramala is a Hopkins alum, and Milliman was hired away after COVID cut the 2020 season short so he was choosing between coaching an elite program that would play lacrosse next season and one that wouldn't.

Buczek was an all time great at Cornell, so this is probably closer to a dream job situation for him than it was for either Pietramala or Milliman. I certainly hope so, because it seems like his tenure is off to an incredible start.

Chris H82

Quote from: arugula
Quote from: CU77Win over Brown drops the team's RPI from #9 to #10:

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d1-men

At this rate we'll be out of the tournament entirely.

Please don't provide fodder for Bearlover!
"What... is your favorite color?"  "Blue. No, yel--auuuuugh!"

billhoward

Quote from: Chris H82
Quote from: arugula
Quote from: CU77Win over Brown drops the team's RPI from #9 to #10:
https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d1-men
At this rate we'll be out of the tournament entirely.
Please don't provide fodder for Bearlover!
Keep handy:

upprdeck

What is the Ivy tie breaker to host

If Harvard beats Cornell and wins out
Cornell then wins out
Prin. wins out

tie breaker I guess would be goal diff. between the 3 teams

right now
Cornell + 5
Princ - 3
Harv -2

Cornell would need to lose by less than 4.

Cornell beat Harvard then win the host spot