Recruits 2024 and Beyond

billchu · March 10, 2024, 10:49:02 AM

I didn't know Gio was Gary Thorne's grandson! Thorne did the play-by-play for the Kent - Canterbury game.

scoop85 · March 10, 2024, 10:52:48 AM

Quote from: billchuI didn't know Gio was Gary Thorne's grandson! Thorne did the play-by-play for the Kent - Canterbury game.

Yes, interesting connection. Thorne is an all-time great

upprdeck · March 10, 2024, 06:21:49 PM

Quote from: TrotskyAre they the sons of Mark Major '87?

Skaneateles just won the state title again even without the kid playing this yr. nice job by them

BearLover · March 26, 2024, 01:15:49 PM

I'll get yelled at for saying this, but...turns out having five draft picks in your freshman class (maybe six, if Robertson gets picked this year) is a good thing. And, in another one of BearLover's Classic Takes, the conference being weak this year helped us too...to win a championship, the teams we had to beat were ranked 50th, 29th, and 43rd in the PWR...

ugarte · March 26, 2024, 01:22:22 PM

Quote from: BearLover(maybe six, if Robertson gets picked this year)

if Robertson doesn't get picked the entire NHL is insane

RichH · March 26, 2024, 04:03:10 PM

Quote from: BearLoverI'll get yelled at for saying this, but...turns out having five draft picks in your freshman class (maybe six, if Robertson gets picked this year) is a good thing. And, in another one of BearLover's Classic Takes, the conference being weak this year helped us too...to win a championship, the teams we had to beat were ranked 50th, 29th, and 43rd in the PWR...

Ah, but the fact that the conference was so weak was the very reason why we *HAD* to win the championship. We basically had to run the table, even WITH an unbeaten OOC record in order to grab an at-large bid. We didn't, but came close. Meanwhile, UMass got one because they were in a strong league, despite having a poor record vs. top 15. That we avoided playing the top team in our league was pretty fortunate.

BearLover · March 26, 2024, 07:33:47 PM

Quote from: RichH
Quote from: BearLoverI'll get yelled at for saying this, but...turns out having five draft picks in your freshman class (maybe six, if Robertson gets picked this year) is a good thing. And, in another one of BearLover's Classic Takes, the conference being weak this year helped us too...to win a championship, the teams we had to beat were ranked 50th, 29th, and 43rd in the PWR...

Ah, but the fact that the conference was so weak was the very reason why we *HAD* to win the championship. We basically had to run the table, even WITH an unbeaten OOC record in order to grab an at-large bid. We didn't, but came close. Meanwhile, UMass got one because they were in a strong league, despite having a poor record vs. top 15. That we avoided playing the top team in our league was pretty fortunate.

No. The pairwise accounts for strength of schedule. If our conference were better, our SOS would be higher but our win percentage would be worse. You can't assume a world where our conference is better but we win just as many games.

Anyway, I was just talking about the championship, not the at-large bid. It was certainly lucky we avoided playing the best team in the conference—but when the league sucks except for one other team, it's much more likely for something like that to happen (in part because we didn't have to meet them until the final, due to us finishing higher than all the other teams, which wasn't that hard, because the conference stunk).

pjd8 · March 26, 2024, 09:38:28 PM

Quote from: BearLover
Quote from: RichH
Quote from: BearLoverI'll get yelled at for saying this, but...turns out having five draft picks in your freshman class (maybe six, if Robertson gets picked this year) is a good thing. And, in another one of BearLover's Classic Takes, the conference being weak this year helped us too...to win a championship, the teams we had to beat were ranked 50th, 29th, and 43rd in the PWR...

Ah, but the fact that the conference was so weak was the very reason why we *HAD* to win the championship. We basically had to run the table, even WITH an unbeaten OOC record in order to grab an at-large bid. We didn't, but came close. Meanwhile, UMass got one because they were in a strong league, despite having a poor record vs. top 15. That we avoided playing the top team in our league was pretty fortunate.
No. The pairwise accounts for strength of schedule. If our conference were better, our SOS would be higher but our win percentage would be worse. You can't assume a world where our conference is better but we win just as many games.

The difference between being in the two conferences is the "bad night" effect. If UMass plays Maine and they have a bad night they lose, and if they have a good night, they probably still lose, but they gain by having a higher SOS. If Cornell plays Colgate and they have a bad night and they lose to a team they would normally beat, they take a hit with the loss and a hit with SOS.

The win percentage/SOS balance only works when there's consistency in play throughout the season. The guys are still maturing. They will, individually and as a team, have bad nights. It's better to have bad nights in Hockey East than in the ECAC.

BearLover · March 26, 2024, 10:14:53 PM

Quote from: pjd8
Quote from: BearLover
Quote from: RichH
Quote from: BearLoverI'll get yelled at for saying this, but...turns out having five draft picks in your freshman class (maybe six, if Robertson gets picked this year) is a good thing. And, in another one of BearLover's Classic Takes, the conference being weak this year helped us too...to win a championship, the teams we had to beat were ranked 50th, 29th, and 43rd in the PWR...

Ah, but the fact that the conference was so weak was the very reason why we *HAD* to win the championship. We basically had to run the table, even WITH an unbeaten OOC record in order to grab an at-large bid. We didn't, but came close. Meanwhile, UMass got one because they were in a strong league, despite having a poor record vs. top 15. That we avoided playing the top team in our league was pretty fortunate.
No. The pairwise accounts for strength of schedule. If our conference were better, our SOS would be higher but our win percentage would be worse. You can't assume a world where our conference is better but we win just as many games.

The difference between being in the two conferences is the "bad night" effect. If UMass plays Maine and they have a bad night they lose, and if they have a good night, they probably still lose, but they gain by having a higher SOS. If Cornell plays Colgate and they have a bad night and they lose to a team they would normally beat, they take a hit with the loss and a hit with SOS.

The win percentage/SOS balance only works when there's consistency in play throughout the season. The guys are still maturing. They will, individually and as a team, have bad nights. It's better to have bad nights in Hockey East than in the ECAC.

I dunno. I'm not really sure this makes sense or actually works this way in practice. All I know is that, if you need to win your conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, as we did this year, you better hope your league isn't good. The rest of the good league/bad league imbalance should largely be washed away by the Pairwise.

upprdeck · March 26, 2024, 10:21:51 PM

We didn't need to win the conf title to get in with PWR if we don't blow any one of about 6 other games,

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 26, 2024, 10:27:25 PM

Quote from: upprdeckWe didn't need to win the conf title to get in with PWR if we don't blow any one of about 6 other games,

^^This^^

abmarks · March 26, 2024, 11:34:48 PM

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82
Quote from: upprdeckWe didn't need to win the conf title to get in with PWR if we don't blow any one of about 6 other games,

^^This^^

nope. it's the other way around. let's get cause and effect in proper order. Which is to say that bearlover's good takes arrive highly correlated with full eclipses. I actually agree with him.

-cause: We punted 6 games.

-Effect: therefore had to win conference to get to the tournament

Therefore, bearlover is correct in saying:

Quote from: bearloverAll I know is that, if you need to win your conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, as we did this year, you better hope your league isn't good.

because the worse your league on the whole, the better your chances are of winning the league tourny.

p.s. Also agree with bearlover that draft picks matter, harvard's horrid start this year notwithstanding. ( i think that I gave him my semi-annual stamp of approval at least in part when he posted about Harvard's picks before the season)

Iceberg · March 27, 2024, 12:30:56 AM

Quote from: upprdeckWe didn't need to win the conf title to get in with PWR if we don't blow any one of about 6 other games,

The horrid game at Princeton comes to mind. No doubt the PWR would've been higher without that loss

BearLover · March 27, 2024, 12:48:52 AM

Quote from: abmarks
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82
Quote from: upprdeckWe didn't need to win the conf title to get in with PWR if we don't blow any one of about 6 other games,

^^This^^

nope. it's the other way around. let's get cause and effect in proper order. Which is to say that bearlover's good takes arrive highly correlated with full eclipses. I actually agree with him.

-cause: We punted 6 games.

-Effect: therefore had to win conference to get to the tournament

Therefore, bearlover is correct in saying:

Quote from: bearloverAll I know is that, if you need to win your conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, as we did this year, you better hope your league isn't good.

because the worse your league on the whole, the better your chances are of winning the league tourny.

p.s. Also agree with bearlover that draft picks matter, harvard's horrid start this year notwithstanding. ( i think that I gave him my semi-annual stamp of approval at least in part when he posted about Harvard's picks before the season)

There are more than a few posters on this website who hang on my every word. Some are fans, some are haters. But abmarks stands out as more obsessed than all the rest.

RichH · March 27, 2024, 01:27:35 AM

Quote from: upprdeckWe didn't need to win the conf title to get in with PWR if we don't blow any one of about 6 other games,

But UMass also "blew" about the same number of games. The difference is that they get a SOS bump due to having a stronger league schedule that forgives those blips more when we're looking at the 3rd & 4th decimal place of RPI. These aren't 80 game seasons that can truly iron out the differences.